Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Walls to Block U.S. Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the obstructions to the so-called (mislabeled) deflation threat within the US Economy. To begin with, falling asset prices does not constitute deflation. One of the primary objectives of the banking elite in firm control of the USGovt and US Congress is to confuse the public and investment community on the entire topic of inflation, what it is, how it is measured, and its risks. The same goes for deflation. All debate as to whether the Untied States will suffer from inflation or deflation is a horrible misdirected distraction that manifests the confusion. The US will suffer both higher monetary inflation and worse economic deterioration, not one or the other, but BOTH, and with steadily increasing intensity.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Is Inflation a Fact… Or Just An Opinion? Part1 / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
We need to seriously re-assess the threat of inflation.
Anytime a particular point of view reaches mass hysteria, you HAVE to be willing to look at it from a different perspective. Today, inflationary fears are beginning to reach that point. The words “Weimar” and “Zimbabwe” are thrown around regularly. Hyperinflation is becoming a serious point of discussion even amongst people who rarely focus on financial markets.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Inflationary Pressures and the MAE Faber Investment Strategy / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Guy_Lerner
William Hester, CFA is a Senior Financial Analyst with the Hussman Funds, and he has written an interesting article that attempts to answer the question: "does the current economic backdrop yet have the characteristics that usually coincide with the end of secular bear markets?"
Monday, June 29, 2009
Apples and Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Last week on CNBC’s “The Kudlow Report” there was a thrilling debate over inflation between Alan Blinder and Arthur Laffer. Mr. Laffer (former member of Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board) encapsulated his position that we need to fear the return of inflation by simply stating that “…if you have a huge increase the supply of apples, the price of apples falls.” While Mr. Blinder (former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) responded by stating, “If people suddenly want to hoard apples and the apple suppliers provide a lot of apples, you’re not going to have inflation of apple prices.”
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Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Inflation or Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
Inflation is dead – long live inflation! We hear about the threat of hyperinflation in the media – is this for real, can it happen in the U.S.? Are we hyping up the word inflation, is it an inflationary play of words to grab attention to discuss the threat of hyperinflation? Let’s deflate the hype and put inflation where it belongs… at the forefront of your concerns.
Monday, June 22, 2009
A High Unemployment Rate Correlates to a High Rate of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
It absolutely amazes me how sanguine the Fed, Treasury and Administration are about the prospects for subdued inflation. What they and many economists like to point to as the source of their optimism is the high rate of unemployment, which is currently 9.4%.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Mass Deflation or Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: LewRockwell
Gary North writes: Back in 1973, gold standard advocate John Exter made a phrase famous in hard-money circles: "Pushing on a string." Exter argued that prices of all assets except gold (he ignored silver) would someday collapse because of the pyramiding of debt. Banks would eventually cease to lend, out of fear of default. That would cause the default.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
How to Forecast Stock and Commodity Asset Prices Part2 / Commodities / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Pick a Number...Any Number, "We didn't abandon the money-supply aggregates. They abandoned us..."
TIME WAS that central banks targeted and fretted about keeping their currency stable against the Dollar.
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Sunday, June 07, 2009
London Retail Price Inflation Falls the Most Over the Past 12 Months / Economics / Inflation
By: HBOS
London experienced the largest decline in retail prices1 over the past year with a 2.8% fall between 2008 quarter one and 2009 quarter one, according to new research by Halifax. This was more than twice the 1.3%* fall for the UK as a whole. However, despite this, the overall price level in the capital remains higher than any other UK region. All 12 UK regions recorded a decline in retail prices over the past 12 months.
Friday, June 05, 2009
Ending of Deflation Fears, Big Inflation Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
At the height of the stock panic in late November, the flagship S&P 500 stock index had plunged 49% year-to-date. Fully 2/3rds of this decline happened in the 9 weeks leading into the panic lows! Naturally the psychological impact of such an epic selloff was utterly massive. Fear exploded to unprecedented extremes.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Inflation or Deflation, Which is the Greater Risk Over the Next Five Years? / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
I will not keep you in suspense. I believe that the greater risk for the global economy in general and the U.S. economy in particular is inflation, not deflation. I arrive at this conclusion both on secular and cyclical grounds.
Secular Factors
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Monday, June 01, 2009
Stocks and Commodities Markets Retro-inflation Revisited / Commodities / Inflation
By: Clif_Droke
Back in 2001-2002 I used the term “retroflation” in a series of newsletters and articles to describe what I saw as a battle between the forces of inflation and deflation. The Kress 30-year cycle had peaked in late 1999 and with it the 1990s bull market in stocks. The U.S. was in the throes of economic recession and tech stocks were in freefall. Yet the Kress cycles called for a major bottom in late 2002 with the 6-year/12-year cycle bottoming and the Fed was already beginning to aggressive cut interest rates, showing that it was serious about re-inflating the economy.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
This is Not the 1930’s Depression, Which Means High Inflation to Come / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pollaro
Many comparisons have been made between today’s financial and economic crisis and the Great Depression, none more than the specter of deflation. Well, contrary to what happened during the Great Depression and contrary to the deflationary forecasts of government leaders, central bankers and economists, deflation, while always possible, is, in this man’s opinion, highly unlikely. Why’s that? Because the monetary and political framework of today is nothing like that of the early 1930’s. In fact, it’s nothing like anything seen, ever. Quite simply, today’s monetary and political framework is built for inflation, as much inflation as the government, the Federal Reserve and their banking partners want. And inflation, and a whole lot of it, is exactly what we are about to get.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
The Two Gaping Holes in the Inflationist Argument / Economics / Inflation
By: Andrew_Butter
The current debate revolves around the simplified monetarist equation (which everyone accepts), that says (M•VT = P•TT) where (M) is the amount of (liquid) money in the system, (VT) is the transactions velocity of this money which is the average frequency across all transactions with which a unit of money is spent (i.e. how fast it moves from one pocket to another), (PT) is the price of goods and services being traded and (T) is an index of the real value of aggregate transactions (no it's not the number of transactions, that's included in (V) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money)). [VT] and [T] are hard to measure and the equation can also be expressed as (M•V = P•Q) where (Q) is output, which approximates to real GDP, typically (M) is measured and (V) is calculated from (V=M/nominal GDP).
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
UK RPI Deflation -0.4%, CPI Inflation 2.9% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK RPI Inflation data of minus 0.4% for March represents real deflation in the official data. Whilst the Governments preferred inflation measure CPI recorded a smaller decline to 2.9% which still puts it well above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. RPI deflation is not so surprising given the panic interest rate cuts from 5% at the beginning of October 2008 to just 0.5% by the last cut of March 2009, these cuts in interest rates coupled with quantitative easing aka "money printing" to drive down long-term interest rates and hence mortgage rates is resulting in real deflation for those with large mortgages of as much as minus 5%, therefore is providing for mini 'temporary' cash flow boom for those mortgage holders that have secure employment during the recession.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Does Inflation Targeting Make Any Sense? / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Calculated Risk has framed an interesting Inflation Debate Between Volcker vs. Kohn without weighing in on the matter. I will gladly weigh in, but first let's review the articles.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The Inflationary Depression, Peter Schiff Interviews Marc Faber / Economics / Inflation
By: LewRockwell
Dr. Marc Faber runs his own business, Marc Faber Limited, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. He publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletters The Gloom Boom & Doom report which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books including Tomorrow's Gold – Asia's Age of Discovery which was first published in 2002 and highlights future investment opportunities around the world. Dr. Faber is also a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world. A book on Dr. Faber, Riding The Millennial Storm , by Nick Vittachi, was published in 1998. In late February, Euro Pacific President Peter Schiff interviewed the eminent economist Marc Faber by telephone from his office in Hong Kong. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 27, 2009
The Inescapable Inflationary Realities of Quantitative Easing and Economic Stimulus / Economics / Inflation
By: Ty_Andros
$14 million, million, or stated another way $14 trillion. The annual GDP of the US is approximately $14 trillion or $46,666 for every man, woman and child in the US - either way you view it, this is the INCONCEIVABLE amount that has been spent, printed or guaranteed since January 2007 in the US; it does not include the government machinations in other G7 countries. And what have you and your family received from that $46,666 per person? MOSTLY nothing and you will get mostly nothing from the next $46,000 and the next $46,000; ut you will get one thing from it: the bill.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Dear Chancellor: Inflationary Facts / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
A draft of this week's open letter – from Bank of England governor Mervyn King to UK chancellor Alistair Darling – which BullionVault found blowing down Threadneedle Street early Tuesday...Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Roadmap to Inflation And How to Protect Your Investments / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
What happens when inflation once again returns. As this week's Outside the Box writer, James Montier, writes, we may want to start thinking now about inflation insurance and he mentions a few ways to do so. But this letter is a must read for his bringing to light a speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in 2000 given to the Japanese, where he suggest inflation targeting: Read full article... Read full article...