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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

When Will Theresa May 'Dead Woman Walking' Resign? Forecast / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne the architect of the Conservative surprise general election victory of 2015 that no one saw coming as every polls based forecaster had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being that for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN just could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne, replaced by May and Hammond.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK General Election result of 2017 surprised all just as had the election result of 2015 when every polls based analyst had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne. Now it was the turn of Theresa May to get it very badly wrong, lulled into a false sense of BrExit security as the pollsters this time forecast a certain landslide, when instead the impossible Hung Parliament materialised literally forcing Theresa May into doing a deal with Northern Irelands Protestant fundamentalists.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.

I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

Scotland Saves Tory Government, BBC Revises Exit Poll Forecast to 322, Labour 261, SNP 32 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The BBC have revised their earlier hung parliament exit poll forecast in favour of the Conservatives by adding 8 seats to their earlier tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats total from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives. Though at the rate the BBC are revising the Tory seats total higher then they may still achieve an overall majority which means, even at 322 it most definitely is not over for the Conservative government who could continue in government despite damage done to their political capital.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 09, 2017

UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Nick Clegg Forecast to Win Sheffield Hallam - 75% Probability / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Whilst the BBC's shock hung parliament exit poll currently forecasts that Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat is too close to call meaning that Labour could take it. This is backed up by BBC reporting of worried voices out of Lib Dems at the count. However according to the betting markets as illustrated by Betfair have following the close of polls marginally shifted in Nick Clegg's favour currently pricing Nick Clegg on 1.14 against Labour on 1.44 which converts into an implied probability of about 70% to 75% for Nick Clegg winning Sheffield Hallam (when taking into account Labour trading at 1.44).

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

FTSE Stocks, Bonds and Sterling Calm Ahead of UK Election Result Storm? / ElectionOracle / Financial Markets 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK stocks, bonds and sterling were calm ahead of the result of the UK general election, where effectively the financial markets are discounting a Conservative election victory on an INCREASED majority in Theresa May's BrExit election, where the higher the number of seats gained by the Tories then the more positive the market response is likely to be. However should the markets also get it wrong this time as they had for the EU Referendum then all hell could once more break lose. But for the time being the markets are calm.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates:

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 08, 2017

YouGov Final Election Bullshit Forecast - Tories Increased Majority But on 302 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov are turning themselves into first class headline grabbing bullshit artists. Having gained mainstream media attention with their first of a series of headline grabbing seat forecasts just over a week ago that stated they were forecasting that the Conservatives would actually LOSE seats by falling to 310 with Labour rising to 247 i.e. a hung parliament. And with their latest Conservative seats forecast of 302, with Labour rising to 269. Now barely hours before the polls open YouGov are running with an headline that implies the EXACT OPPOSITE RESULT! "Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority". So could someone explain to me how is one expected to capitalise / utilise / interpret YouGov's two alternative outcome forecasts?

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Sheffiled City Council / Amey Trees Rampage Costs Labour Sheffield Hallam Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Labour party smells blood in Sheffield Hallam having come within just 4% of winning the former Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg's seat in2015. And now with little signs of Liberal Democrat recovery in the polls, Labour are going all out to take the Sheffield Hallam seat in tomorrows vote.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Spread Betting Market Arbitrage and BetFair Trading UK General Election 2017 / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So Theresa May's snap general election campaign is nearly over and where my forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win with 358 seats on a majority of 66. With Labour losing 20 seats falling to 212. So following my my forecast conclusion my search has been on to identify spread and Betfair exchange betting market opportunities for these last few days and then hours ahead of the election result as I cover in this video analysis.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

YouGov Final Election 2017 Seats Forecast - Conservative 302, Labour 269, Lib 12, SNP 44 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today YouGov published their final seats per party forecast for election 2017, one of the Conservatives holding onto only 302 of their 331 seats, Labour surging to 269 and the SNP falling to 44 with only a flicker of life in the Lib Dems rising to just 12. For much of the election campaign YouGov followed the pollster herd by forecasting a Conservative landslide but then late May apparently decided F-this and went for broke by increasingly pumping out crazy poll expectations at the extreme opposite to that which they had been forecasting barely a few weeks earlier.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Will Amey Trees Rampage Cost Paul Blomfield Sheffield Central Labour Seat, Green Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: N_Walayat

The Green Party are fielding their party leader Natalie Bennett in the Sheffield Central constituency hoping to unseat Paul Blomfield from what has been a rock solid Labour seat since 1945, to whom the Labour baton was passed in 2010 from Richard Caborn. The Green party are eager to capitalise on local issues such as the felling of thousands of Sheffied's big and beautiful trees by the Spanish Ferrovial Family owned Amey as part of a £2 billion PFI outsourcing contract by Labour Sheffield City Council that has angered and outraged many tens of thousands of Sheffielders, prompting dozens of campaign groups to spring up that will likely play a major role in the oucome of the next 2018 local elections.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Forecast: Conservative 358, Labour 212 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My recent video analysis concluded in seats per political parties forecast conclusion for Theresa May's snap BrExit general election, based up on the sum of 6 weeks analysis that is set against the opinion pollsters who are literally all over the place with YouGov even today forecasting 304 seats for the Tories whilst others range to as high as 385 seats.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

Nick Clegg's Desperate Election 2017 Message to Sheffield Hallam Voters / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Nick Clegg attempting to cling on to to his Sheffield Hallam seat has sent a desperate personal message to many Sheffield Hallam voters, highlighting all of the campaigning he has done in the area in respect of local schools and Sheffield Trees being chopped down. Though given what has subsequent come to pass then the campaigning has proved to be mostly ineffectual. Anyway here is Nick Clegg's message to the voters of Sheffield Hallam, a tight election race which Nick Clegg barely leads Labour by 4%.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Spread Betting Arbitrage to Lock in Risk Less Profits! / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 304 (YouGov) to 380 . The spread betting markets are throwing up a disparate range of possibilities to arbitrage between the different quotes across a range of spread bet market makers.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Sheffield Election 2017 Battles - Hallam Clegg, Blomfield Central, Trees and Greens / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The unfolding Sheffield election battles are centered around whether the current 4 or 5 Labour MP's (is Penistone a Sheffield constituency?) or the former Lib Dem Leader retain their seats. So could Labour being 10% or so behind the Tories result in the feared landslide election victory for Theresa May in the BrExit election include Labour losing a seat? For the Sheffield City council's £2 billion deal with Ferrovial family owned Ame, effectively outsourcing local democracy to a multi-national could be the straw that breaks the voting camels back delivering Sheffield Labour a SHOCK election RESULT!

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

UK General Election 2017 Spread and Exchange Betting Market Opportunities / ElectionOracle / Spread Betting

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the opinion polls all over the as illustrated by the pollster based Conservative Party seats forecasts wide range from 305 to 385. Where it would be great if one could bet against the pollsters! i.e. ring up YouGov and go LONG on their forecast of Conservative 305 seats and SHORT of their Labour 267 seats. Of course they would never do that, as they clearly don't put their money where their mouths are, instead without consequence continue to pump out headline grabbing seats forecasts as demanded by the mainstream media to sell copy.

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