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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the 2020 election, Americans’ national priorities, discontent with the Trump administration and its economic and pandemic failures would seem to work for the Democrats.  But beware of the October (or even November) surprise.

Recently, President Trump tested positive for COVID-19, which initiated contact tracing in the infected White House – after nine months of failed pandemic leadership, violations of basic public-health procedures, premature exits from the lockdowns and earlier-than-anticipated secondary waves.

The consequences have been severe. The number of Americans that have perished in the pandemic (close to 220,000) is already nearly four times higher than the total of US deaths in the Vietnam War.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 10, 2020

This Is What The Stock Market Is Saying About Trump’s Re-Election / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.

I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Why I am Voting for Donald J. Hitler / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Robert_Singer

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out – because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out – because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for me, and I didn’t need to speak out, I voted for Adolph J. Trump

I have been trying to explain the millions of Americans—Republicans Christians, Jews, Blacks, Hispanic and college-educated white voters— who watched Trump stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot freedom, equality and justice in the head, and are still voting for him in November.

They don’t care that he lost more money than any other American, bankrupted his businesses six times, is an adulterer, a liar, and that he grabs women by the p*ssy.

It’s not an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Roe vs Wade, Moving the Embassy to Jerusalem, the Wall, the Economy, Iran or Climate Change, none of them solve the mystery.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 03, 2020

Debate Debacle: What Biden and Trump SHOULD Have Been Asked / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden won’t go down as a great moment in the annals of American democracy. That much both camps, as well as independent observers of the chaotic spectacle, can agree upon.

The post-debate debate over whose interruptions or insults were most egregious totally overlooked the glaring failure of moderator Chris Wallace to ask any substantive questions about the country's unprecedented financial predicament.

Record budget deficits? Unsustainable debt growth? Open-ended Federal Reserve currency creation?

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ElectionOracle

Friday, October 02, 2020

Trump Tests Positive for CoronaVirus, Is Biden Infected? Pence vs Harris Presidency? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

President Trumps incompetent handling of the chinese coronavirus pandemic has resulted in over 210,000 american deaths, that looks set to reach 250,000 by voting day and who now himself has tested positive for Covdi-19.

Given his antics of lack of social distancing and mask wearing and holding huge enclosed space election rallies the only surprising thing is that he made it this far without getting infected.

Can Trump survive Covid-19? After all it came close to killing Britain's equally moronic 50 year old Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier in the year.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

How Trump co-opted the religious right and stacked the courts with conservatives / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Richard_Mills

“We’re not giving lifetime appointments to this President, on the way out the door, to change the Supreme Court, for the next 25 or 30 years.” 

That was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2016, defending his controversial decision to block President Obama’s appointee to the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland. 

The veteran Republican lawmaker enraged Democrats by refusing to hold a Senate confirmation hearing on Garland’s appropriateness for the position. Under the US Constitution, the Senate Judiciary Committee conducts hearings examining the background of the nominee and questioning him/ her about their views on a variety of cases and their judicial philosophy.

Yet when faced with a vacancy on the court after the recent death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, McConnell vowed to replace her in a Senate vote, before the Nov. 3 election. Like in 2016, a Supreme Court judge had died just before the President’s four-year term had ended (actually six weeks prior this year, vs 8 months in 2016). 

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Mail-in ballots in order to Fraudulently steal US Presidental Election 2020? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: James_Quinn

WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?

During questioning by Senator Ron Johnson in 2013 about the false narrative of a Prophet Muhammed video spurring a spontaneous demonstration, presented by National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, regarding the Benghazi attack that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, Clinton angrily responded with her now famous quote.

“With all due respect, the fact is, we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or because of guys out for a walk one night who decide to kill some Americans, what difference at this point does it make?” – Hillary Clinton

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

US Election 2020: ‘A Major Bear Market of Political Decency’ / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: John_Mauldin

I know many of you are wondering what happens if Joe Biden wins the 2020 presidential election? What happens if Donald Trump wins?

So, I called my friend Doug Kass to basically “wargame” the next 12 to 24 months. He’s a veteran trader and investor, one George Soros tried to hire on several occasions. So, when he has something to say, I listen closely.

Doug and I went back and forth on a few issues, but the bottom line is the same: We are in for a very rough ride.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Graham_Summers

Ignore the naysayers, the Trump administration has successful engineered an economic boom.

I was recently on Cheddar discussing the markets when the anchor raised the fact that the Trump administration failed to achieve its economic goals.

This is false.

First and foremost, the economic data put out in the U.S. has become EXTREMELY politically biased.

The reason for this is simple, many of the people who compile this information are Democrats who hate the President (the bulk of Government employees live and work in Northern Virginia/ D.C. which went 92% for Hillary Clinton in 2016).

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Trump vs Cortez - Clash of the Titans / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Peter_Schiff

In the decades that I have been listening to politicians clumsily trying to explain the economy there has never been a period, with the possible exception of the early Reagan years, in which major party leaders were able to present a solid grasp of economic principles. But I have never seen a time in which the levels of ignorance coming from those in leadership positions is so extreme.

The state of affairs can be illustrated by two interviews last week by Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the Democrats, the two undisputed leaders of our major political parties. Both put forth visions this week that are illogical, incoherent, and that completely ignore both data and experience. But these leaders are putting out beacons under which the vast majority of Americans are congregating. It's worse than the blind leading the blind, and it bodes very poorly for our ability to deal with the next economic crisis, which I believe is certainly slouching towards Washington, waiting to be born.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, December 13, 2019

Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

According to the pollsters such as Yougov, the Lib Dem's were supposed to hoover up seats in REMAIN constituencies from at least Labour if not the Tories. But that's not what happened! They FAILED to win seats where they were ahead in the polls such as in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Even Jo Swinson the Lib Deam leader lost her seat to the SNP! Resulting in the Lib Dems dropping from 20 MP's to just 11!

Find out why in this precient video posted the day BEFORE polling day for why the Lib Dem's had burned their support in many consituencies across Britain, such as in Sheffield Hallam where the polls said they were ahead by 4% i.e. 36% to 32% Labour. Instead Labour held onto the seat by 700 votes.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 34 million voters out of a total of approx 49 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place during the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 5 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a quick summary of my general election seats per party forecasts ahead of the polls opening.

  • Conservatives 326
  • Labour 241
  • SNP 40
  • Lib Dems 17
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ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK General Election 2019 FINAL Seats Per Political Party Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FINAL SEATS PER POLITICAL PARTY FORECAST

This is my final seats per political party forecast based on extensive analysis published at the market MarketOracle.co.uk website over the past 3 weeks a fraction of which was posted to youtube.

The whole of this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work that includes my final seats forecast at 12pm on the 11th of December 2019.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy in terms of Inflation stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.

Tory Seats projection analysis to date :

  1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

  1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.

A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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