Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Topping Behavior - 24th May 20
Fed Action Accelerates Boom-Bust Cycle; Not A Virus Crisis - 23rd May 20
Gold Silver Miners and Stocks (after a quick drop) Ready to Explode - 23rd May 20
3 Ways to Prepare Financially for Retirement - 23rd May 20
4 Essential Car Trade-In Tips To Get The Best Value - 23rd May 20
Budgie Heaven at Bird Land - 23rd May 20
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ herald Rebound of Economy - 22nd May 20
Signs Of Long Term Devaluation US Real Estate - 22nd May 20
Reading the Tea Leaves of Gold’s Upcoming Move - 22nd May 20
Gold, Silver, Mining Stocks Teeter On The Brink Of A Breakout - 21st May 20
Another Bank Bailout Under Cover of a Virus - 21st May 20
Do No Credit Check Loans Online Instant Approval Options Actually Exist? - 21st May 20
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics - 21st May 20
US Housing Market Covid-19 Crisis - 21st May 20
The Coronavirus Just Hit the “Fast-Forward” Button on These Three Industries - 21st May 20
AMD Zen 3 Ryzen 9 4950x Intel Destroying 24 core 48 thread Processor? - 21st May 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - 20th May 20
The Credit Markets Gave Their Nod to the S&P 500 Upswing - 20th May 20
Where to get proper HGH treatment in USA - 20th May 20
Silver Is Ensured A Prosperous 2020 Thanks To The Fed - 20th May 20
It’s Not Only Palladium That You Better Listen To - 20th May 20
DJIA Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th May 20
US Real Estate Showing Signs Of Covid19 Collateral Damage - 19th May 20
Gold Stocks Fundamental Indicators - 19th May 20
Why This Wave is Usually a Market Downturn's Most Wicked - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Flip from Losses to 5x Leveraged Gains! - 19th May 20
Silver Price Begins To Accelerate Higher Faster Than Gold - 19th May 20
Gold Will Soar Soon; World Now Faces 'Monetary Armageddon' - 19th May 20
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 18th May 20
Why the Largest Cyberattack in History Will Happen Within Six Months - 18th May 20
New AMD Ryzen 4900x and 4950x Zen3 4th Gen Processors Clock Speed and Cores Specs - 18th May 20
Learn How to Play the Violin, Kids Activities and Learning During Lockdown - 18th May 20
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble - 17th May 20
Powell Sends a Message With Love for Gold - 17th May 20
An Economic Renaissance Emerges – Stock Market Look Out Below - 17th May 20
Learn more about the UK Casino Self-exclusion - 17th May 20
Will Stocks Lead the Way Lower for Gold Miners? - 15th May 20
Are Small-Cap Stocks (Russell 2k) Headed For A Double Dip? - 15th May 20
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good - 15th May 20
Gold and Silver: As We Go from Deflation to Hyperinflation - 15th May 20
Silver's Massive Undervaluation Relative to Gold Makes It Irresistible - 14th May 20
Bitcoin Halving Passes with no Fanfare, but Smart Money is Accumulating - 14th May 20
Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? - 14th May 20
The Tragedy Of Missed Covid-19 Opportunities - 14th May 20
Worst Jobs Report In US Economic History - And The Stock Market Continues To Rally - 14th May 20
NASDAQ Sets Up A Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern - 14th May 20
Perceiving Coronavirus as a Disruptive Technology - 13th May 20
Why Financial Trouble Brews on the "Home" Front - 13th May 20
Stock Market ‘Sentiment Event’ Rally Grinds On - 13th May 20
The Fed Now Owns All Markets - 13th May 20
Fruit Trees Gardening to Beat Coronavirus Blues - , Apple, Cherry, Kiwi, Pears, Plums, Grapes, Bananas May 2020 - 13th May 20
Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus - 12th May 20
S&P 500 Bulls Again At Resistance – Now What - 12th May 20
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - 12th May 20
Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic - 12th May 20
Hi Ho Silver : Away! - 11th May 20
The Great Stock Market Disconnect - 11th May 20
The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now - 11th May 20
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn - 11th May 20
Brave New Corona World – A heated Debate between Steven Pinker and Aldous Huxley - 11th May 20
Coronavirus Catastrophe Stock Market Implications - 10th May 20
US Stock Prices are Ignoring the Economic Meltdown, Wait for it… - 10th May 20
Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 - 10th May 20
Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? - 10th May 20
The Illusion of Owning Gold - 10th May 20 - Nick_Barisheff
The Financial Crisis Will Continue To Lurk Even If the Lockdown Gets Eased - 10th May 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Graham_Summers

Ignore the naysayers, the Trump administration has successful engineered an economic boom.

I was recently on Cheddar discussing the markets when the anchor raised the fact that the Trump administration failed to achieve its economic goals.

This is false.

First and foremost, the economic data put out in the U.S. has become EXTREMELY politically biased.

The reason for this is simple, many of the people who compile this information are Democrats who hate the President (the bulk of Government employees live and work in Northern Virginia/ D.C. which went 92% for Hillary Clinton in 2016).

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Trump vs Cortez - Clash of the Titans / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Peter_Schiff

In the decades that I have been listening to politicians clumsily trying to explain the economy there has never been a period, with the possible exception of the early Reagan years, in which major party leaders were able to present a solid grasp of economic principles. But I have never seen a time in which the levels of ignorance coming from those in leadership positions is so extreme.

The state of affairs can be illustrated by two interviews last week by Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for the Democrats, the two undisputed leaders of our major political parties. Both put forth visions this week that are illogical, incoherent, and that completely ignore both data and experience. But these leaders are putting out beacons under which the vast majority of Americans are congregating. It's worse than the blind leading the blind, and it bodes very poorly for our ability to deal with the next economic crisis, which I believe is certainly slouching towards Washington, waiting to be born.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Friday, December 13, 2019

Why Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems LOST Seats General Election 2019 - Sheffiled Hallam Result / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

According to the pollsters such as Yougov, the Lib Dem's were supposed to hoover up seats in REMAIN constituencies from at least Labour if not the Tories. But that's not what happened! They FAILED to win seats where they were ahead in the polls such as in the Sheffield Hallam constituency. Even Jo Swinson the Lib Deam leader lost her seat to the SNP! Resulting in the Lib Dems dropping from 20 MP's to just 11!

Find out why in this precient video posted the day BEFORE polling day for why the Lib Dem's had burned their support in many consituencies across Britain, such as in Sheffield Hallam where the polls said they were ahead by 4% i.e. 36% to 32% Labour. Instead Labour held onto the seat by 700 votes.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK General Election 2019 BBC Exit Poll Forecast Accuracy Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 34 million voters out of a total of approx 49 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place during the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 5 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a quick summary of my general election seats per party forecasts ahead of the polls opening.

  • Conservatives 326
  • Labour 241
  • SNP 40
  • Lib Dems 17
Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Thursday, December 12, 2019

UK General Election 2019 FINAL Seats Per Political Party Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

FINAL SEATS PER POLITICAL PARTY FORECAST

This is my final seats per political party forecast based on extensive analysis published at the market MarketOracle.co.uk website over the past 3 weeks a fraction of which was posted to youtube.

The whole of this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work that includes my final seats forecast at 12pm on the 11th of December 2019.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy in terms of Inflation stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my final analysis of a 6 part series that aims to apply lessons learned from the 2017 general election towards a forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis that was first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November 2019.

Tory Seats projection analysis to date :

  1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats 326 - UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (patrons) - Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)

Analysis to date averages to 3xx Tory seats which shows little deviation against my core house prices based forecast of 322 tory seats.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

  1. UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
  2. Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
  3. Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
  5. Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
  6. Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general elections.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

YouGov is set to update their MRP methodology based election polling seats forecast at 10pm today. Their existing forecast as of 27th November is for Boris Johnson to win a majority of 68 on 359 seats, whilst Labour drops from 242 to 211. As apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what Yougov and the mainstream press keep iterating and thus the obsession with their MRP forecast for 2019.

A quick search reveals - "As the dust of the general election settles, many commentators are still stating they didn’t see it coming. But we did." https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament , Yougov.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.

So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in a series that looks a the Tory and Labour Manifesto's where my first manifesto video covered the degree to which each party was going to bribe the electorate. And the second focused on the debt dynamics of whether Britain can afford to go on a debt fuelled spending spree given current Debt to GDP of 90%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, December 09, 2019

Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" vs "Get Brexit Done"

Everything's always obvious in hindsight and so it was for the 2017 General Election campaign. We might all have seen it on the TV, but it just failed to register with most. What am I talking about? It is the phenomena that was Jeremy Corbyn or JC! In 2017 we saw it in his speeches, we saw it in his interviews and we definitely saw it at his mass rallies! Ooh Jeremy Corbyn, Ooh Jeremy Corbyn! Some 2.5 years on "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" may have become a little bit stale but you can still hear it humming in background.

Even fellow Blairites who literally hated most things Jeremy Corbyn stood for i.e. his 1970's style socialist ideology could not fathom the amount of interest that he was generating as JC was EVANGELICAL! So is those close to him could not understand what was going on then what hope did those who never met him in person have.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, December 09, 2019

Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.

However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, December 09, 2019

Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, December 09, 2019

Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

  1. UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
  2. Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
  3. Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
  4. Marginal Seats

The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, December 08, 2019

UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

However, note that this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.

Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.

And so now 2 1/2 years on the Lib Dems look set to retake the Sheffield Hallam seat form a chaotic Labour party. Especially given the close result in 2017. That saw Labour winning the seat by just over 1000 votes.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Saturday, December 07, 2019

Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits. / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tuition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!

All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!

AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 30 | >>