Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 09, 2019
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
- Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
- Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
- Marginal Seats
The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.
However, note that this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.
Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.
And so now 2 1/2 years on the Lib Dems look set to retake the Sheffield Hallam seat form a chaotic Labour party. Especially given the close result in 2017. That saw Labour winning the seat by just over 1000 votes.
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Saturday, December 07, 2019
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits. / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tuition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!
All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!
AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!
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Saturday, December 07, 2019
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy, fake even!
For instance pretending that Tory MP's are asking them to vote for the Lib Dems to prevent Labour from winning a close Lib Dem / Labour marginal seat as is the case in the Sheffield Hallam Constituency that is literally seeing a barrage of leaflets and letters posted every day.
However, it is highly probable that for this constituency the Lib Dems do look set to win the seat from Labour as a consequence of the disaster that was their MP for the past 2 1/2 years. But the Lib Dems are making a huge mistake if they think the voters are too stupid to see through their fake election leaflets because NOT TORY MP is going write letters instructing voters to VOTE for the Lib Dems!
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Friday, December 06, 2019
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Climate Change
By: N_Walayat
Where in a climate emergency that demands both cutting back carbon production and increasing carbon capture. In which respect one of the best mechanisms to achieve this emergency objective are TREES!
However, devoid of commonsense, several years ago the Labour controlled Sheffield City council embarked on a plan to fells tens of thousands of Sheffield's largest trees, typically 200 times the volume of replacement saplings. Literally millions of tons of carbon have been unnecessarily released by the Labour Council felling Sheffield's biggest trees that soak up vehicle pollution and releasing oxygen into the streets, which is why they were planted in the first place typically over a 100 years ago to help clean up Sheffield's toxic air environment of that time which given the volume of traffic remains just as toxic now as it was then.
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Friday, December 06, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.
1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.
2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this series of videos in the countdown to polling day, December 12th conclude in a detailed seats forecast for the Torys, Labour, Lib Dems and SNP, analysis and forecasts based on 9 key lessons learned from the 2017 general election that I covered in an earlier video where as the opinion polls have consisnteyl been wrong for now 4 UK elections in a row and thus should be ignored whilst the actual most accurate preduictor of UK elections has consistently been my house prices based forecasts and average earnings growth. For this election the 9 key lessons learned resolve into 5 pieces of in-depth analysis that aim to accuratelty forecast the outcome of the December 12th Vote.
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Thursday, December 05, 2019
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy!
This is especially the case for those living in the Sheffield Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's anti climate change policy of felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Labour's manifesto promise is to plant 2 billion trees by 2040 is clearly a figure plucked out of this air much like most of Labour's manifesto. Still if Labour managed to achieve even half that target that it would be an huge achievement. However there is a fly in the ointment and that is the behaviour of inept Labour councils across Britain such as Sheffield's who over the past few years have been on a TREE FELLING rampage, trees that have been felled in their thousands are typically equivalent in volume to about 200 saplings planted, many of which fail to survive.
Sheffield has seen virtually every tree lined street hit by chainsaw massacres.
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Wednesday, December 04, 2019
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: N_Walayat
Here's examples of dodgy Lib Dem leaflets being posted into the letter boxes of Sheffield voters. Especially those living in the Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's policy on felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees at a time of climate catastrophe.
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Monday, December 02, 2019
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.
Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 01, 2019
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tutition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!
All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!
AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!
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Saturday, November 30, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My first article in this UK general election series concluded in a core forecast of seats for the Conservative party based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections - UK house prices momentum.
The remaining articles in this series in the countdown to voting day (December 12th) aim to fine tune my core expectation towards a final seats per party forecast.
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Thursday, November 28, 2019
Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.
Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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Monday, November 25, 2019
UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls (BBC) puts the the Tories on 41%, Labour on 29% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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