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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Friday, June 24, 2016

Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

3am BST: With now 8 million votes counted, the headline of standings of near 50/50 masks the fact that as Jeremy Vine periodically keeps reminding BBC viewers that LEAVE are doing far better than their models suggested they should be, which if maintained implies that LEAVE are heading for referendum win, which compares against the situation of when the polls closed and the release of YouGov's polling for the day that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE, which even prompted Nigel Farage to effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, June 24, 2016

EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Results at 1am BST are reversing the REMAIN camps earlier complacency that following the polls closing had many congratulating themselves after YouGov's 10pm poll that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE. We even even saw Nigel Farage effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The final opinion poll of the EU Referendum campaign by YouGov was released at 10pm just as the polls closed and the counting began, putting REMAIN in a clear 4 point lead on 52% against LEAVE on 48%, which is what the story that the mainstream press is running with given that the first significant results won't be known for at least another 3 hours.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In February Prime Minister David Cameron defacto surrendered virtually every point of his already heavily watered down non binding deal with the European Union who stated would only legislate the laws AFTER the the UK had voted to remain within the EU. Which the EU Parliament President clarified as implying that virtually every aspect of the deal would be subject to debate and resistance from the dozen or so eastern european benefits claiming states, who would likely decide to reject most of the so called UK deal, that effectively has been repeatedly used as a smoke screen to hoodwink the British people into giving up their democracy and freedoms.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Forget for a moment that Hillary Clinton is a criminal, Donald Trump is crazy, and both are liars. This is an election year, and demons stalk the world. It is now clear that one of them will be president of the United States.

Behind the heated rhetoric lie two very diverse visions for American foreign policy. But what presidents want and what they get are usually very different things.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Latest opinion polls taken today (22nd of June) both put LEAVE marginally ahead of REMAIN, TNS (online) 43% LEAVE against 41% for REMAIN and Opinium (online) 45% LEAVE against 44% for REMAIN. Which illustrates that whilst leave as the advantage nevertheless given the margin of error then both camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the poll leads of the past 10 days.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Will Brexit Be Used as Scapegoat for Global Financial Reset? - Video / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Mario_Innecco

hi minako 64 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views
so we've got one day to go to the EU referendum here in the UK or Brax it as
it's more colloquially known and i usually don't buy the newspapers but I
went down to the shop around near my house and i bought the Sun today which
is the biggest tabloid newspaper in the UK and as you can see it says what Queen
asked dinner guests give me three good reasons to stay in Europe
so apparently the Queen has been asking doing the guests that question and they
the press has contacted buckingham palace for you know an explanation and
they've they not confirmed it nor denied and they said we don't comment on the.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse / ElectionOracle / Climate Change

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Latest opinion poll by YouGov puts REMAIN marginally ahead on 45% against LEAVE on 44%, which illustrates that both LEAVE and REMAIN camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the polls of the past 10 days.

The opinion polls momentum chart clearly shows a trend since Mid May of LEAVE gaining ground against REMAIN which by the start of June had both virtually neck and neck into the 13th of June when LEAVE started to pull strongly away from REMAIN, right up until last Thursdays horrific event that literally resulted in momentum being put into reverse gear for LEAVE that led to REMAIN taking a marginal polls lead that it continues to maintain though without momentum to carry the marginal lead any further.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Hong Kong’s Richest Man Warns Against Brexit as Vote Looms / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Bloomberg

As one of the U.K.’s largest investors, Li has much at stake

U.K. accounts for 37 percent of profit at Li’s main company

Hong Kong’s richest man stepped up his calls for Britons to vote in favor of staying in the European Union as the world braces for the outcome of this week’s vote.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

EU Referendum Latest Opinion Polls Show LEAVE Halting REMAINs Surge / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Latest opinion poll shows REMAINs lead is already crumbling as YouGov now puts LEAVE back in the lead on 44% against REMAIN on 42% and therefore bringing REMAINs strong momentum in the wake of the last Thursdays horrific events to a shuddering halt that had seen LEAVEs commanding lead quickly evaporate to resolve in a series of polls that put REMAIN ahead.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Don't Let George Soros and Lord Rothschild Scare You into Staying in the EU - Video / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Mario_Innecco

In this video I talk about a fear mongering campaign by George Soros,
Lord Jacob Rothschild and George Osborne trying to get the UK public to vote to remain in the EU on June 23, 2016

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

EU Referendum Opinion Polls Analysis Shows Strong Momentum in REMAINs Favour / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last Thursdays killing of Pro-REMAIN Labour MP Jo Cox by a right wing extremist has had a dramatic effect on the EU referendum, where a poll lead for LEAVE has evaporated to give REMAIN a marginal lead that this momentum analysis of the most recent polling data attempts to illuminate.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 20, 2016

The Economic Reality of BrExit / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The United Kingdom will shortly vote either leave or remain in the European Union. This is the most important European event of this century since a vote to leave will likely have important domino effects for the rest of Europe.

A recent poll showed that if the UK could keep free trade with EU nations, the British people would vote overwhelmingly to leave the EU. To drum up support for staying in the EU, The UK Government and quasi government agencies, like the IMF and OECD, have issue continuous warnings about the costs of such a divorce. The IMF recently reiterated its forecasts that BREXIT would have a significant negative effect on the UK economy with a drop in GDP anywhere between 1% and 9% over the long term. The reality is that Brexit would probably only have a minor initial impact on trade or GDP and, on the contrary, would open up vast possibilities for the UK to exploit trade relations with other faster growing regions of the world without having to reach complex trade agreements that satisfy the vested interests of the other 28 members of the EU. 

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 20, 2016

Words Still Mean Things – Brexit With Graham Mehl / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Andy_Sutton

Last time our piece focused on what has come to be known as 'escape velocity' and how an aeronautical term has come to be used to provide some boost to the perception of the USEconomy when in fact it actually has noelocity whatsoever. This week we're going to take a look at another term, and even though it is an amalgam of two words, it still has profound meaning.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 20, 2016

Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next? / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Baroness Warsi, a mostly from the sidelines LEAVE campaigner has now apparently abandoned the cause for FREEDOM for Britain from an emerging european super state because of that naughty Nigel Farage's poster of last week that highlighted the migration crisis that Europe faces. However, as I have often voiced that these converts to the BrExit cause could well turn out to be 'manchurian candidates' who in the last days of the referendum campaign would publically switch in an attempt to do fatal damage to LEAVEs cause.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, June 20, 2016

Brexit Rules The Week / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: John_Rubino

The Brexit vote is this Thursday, so nothing else matters until then. And polls, just to make it even more stressful, have it neck and neck. See Brexit poll tracker back to even at 44-44.

While we’re waiting, let’s consider some related questions:

Would leaving the EU be good or bad for Britain in the short run? A lot of definite-sounding opinion is being tossed around on this count — see ‘Negative and substantial’ impact on UK if it leaves EU: IMF — but it’s important to take such things with a grain of salt. No one has the slightest idea how such a divorce would go and if its immediate impact would be positive or negative.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Brexit Fear-Mongering / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Stephen_Lendman

The European Union is fundamentally undemocratic, a flawed system, a sinking ship, a CIA creation. 

Paul Craig Roberts explained, citing Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s September 2000 article, saying:

“DECLASSIFIED American government documents show that the US intelligence community ran a campaign in the Fifties and Sixties to build momentum for a united Europe.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Reason Brexit Debate Has Gotten So Out of Hand is Nobody Understands What it’s About / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The Brexit campaigns have started anew in the UK, and from what I’ve seen here from left field barely a thing has changed since the murder of MP Jo Cox. Neither side has any qualms about using her death to make their respective points. The main, and perhaps only real, point is that nobody understands what the vote is about. Jo Cox, bless her soul, didn’t either.

This lack of understanding is also, at the same time, the reason why the debate has gotten so out of hand. Nobody seems to understand it’s not about Cameron or Nigel Farage, or Michael Gove vs Boris Johnson, it’s about voting for or against the EU, for or against Juncker and Tusk and five other unelected presidents having a say in one’s life.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Contrary to press stories of civil wars, most of the migration (90%) into the UK has been purely economic that includes to study, many of whom turn out to be bogus students who instead are here to work illegally and for permanent settlement.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

EU Referendum: Have the Bookmakers Got it Wrong? LEAVE Opinion Polls Lead / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A string of recent opinion polls such as Opiniun giving LEAVE a 19 point lead or ORB's giving LEAVE a 10% lead are not being reflected by the bookmakers betting odds. And even if we ignore some of these more extreme polls because there is no way LEAVE is going to win by 19% or even 10%, then still as my recent analysis illustrates that LEAVE have been nudging into the lead which is just NOT being reflected by the betting that is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN.

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