The Market Oracle Newsletter Issue #11 Vol. 1
News_Letter / Financial Markets May 20, 2007 - 08:33 PMBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle Newsletter
Welcome to the current issue of the Market Oracle Financial Markets Forecasting and Analysis Newsletter.
By: David_Petch Recently, beekeepers have reported losses of up to 80% of their hives from various locations around the globe. Over the past month, there have been several different hypotheses proposed for the sudden disappearance of bees recently coined “Colony Collapse Disorder” (CCD): • Transmissions from cell phones might be killing bees http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/wildlife/article2449968.ece . Cell phones and their networks have been around for 20 years, so a sudden decline due to phones is highly improbable. • Mites infecting bees around the globe: http://www.news.c o m.au/story/0,23599,21660605-421,00.html .
By: Roland_Watson So silver has once again renewed its acquaintance with the 200 day moving average and the dirges regarding the death of a silver bull renew their solemn chants. Why the fear and concern amongst silver analysts and silver investors in general? Various indicators suggest a potential breakdown in prices with bearish connotations. Now that raises one or two questions themselves. For one, what constitutes the end of a bull market? That rather depends on your timeframe. One could easily argue silver has been in a bear market since Friday the 12th May 2006 as prices have drifted below the $15 high of that time. On the other hand, silver has not looked back since March 2003 when it traded for less than $4.50 giving us a full-blooded bull market whose demise is not on the cards quite yet. It depends on your timeframe, but nothing in the recent price action suggests the end of the silver bull market.
By: Thorsten Polleit "The bright side of the credit boom is an apparently expanding economy. Sooner or later, however, the boom is going to show its dark side. The gap between the credit and money induced increase in demand for and supply of resources becomes obvious." by Thorsten Polleit I. Introduction Under today's government-controlled paper-money standards, the world's major economies have embarked upon an unprecedented expansion of credit, starting in the early 1980s. As credit growth has been outstripping economies' rise in output, total debt levels in percent of gross domestic product (GDP) have increased strongly.
By: John_Mauldin In this issue: Summer driving season is almost upon us. I remember more than a few long road trips with young kids, who would eventually get bored and tired and lulled into sleep, and with a stop for gas would wake up and ask, "Are we there yet?" or "Where are we?" They would be impatient to get "there" (ok, so was Dad), and the journey was something to be endured rather than enjoyed for its own sake. Today, traveling with the older kids (6 of them 18-30, with just one still at 13) is a lot different, as we look forward to the time together, with great conversation and lots of laughs.
By: Zeal_LLC This week the International Monetary Fund, which has long commanded the world's third largest official holding of gold bullion, once again made some noise about selling 400 tonnes of its gold. Such a sale would represent about an eighth of the IMF's total holdings, and as usual such tidings spooked the markets. So far in its secular bull, gold has climbed 181% higher since April 2001. Interestingly, the IMF has been periodically announcing that it is considering gold bullion sales over the majority of this entire six-year span. The recurring threat of IMF gold sales is just another brick in the great wall of worries that gold has handily overcome. The old market aphorism that “all bull markets climb a wall of worries” couldn't be more true for gold and gold stocks. Whether it is IMF sales, other central-bank machinations, allegedly declining investment demand, or whatever, a myriad of worries plaguing every step of the way higher has been par for the course in this bull.
By: Money_and_Markets Larry Edelson writes: It's almost the middle of the year. So now is a great time to see where we've come from and where things might be headed next. It's also a great time to take a serious look at everything because the portfolios in my Real Wealth Report are on fire! At the end of Tuesday's trading, my subscribers had combined open profits of $40,383! Will the profits keep coming? Are there any bumps in the road ahead? Let me answer these questions by explaining five macroeconomic forces that I believe will shape the markets over the next several years … FORCE #1: Anemic U.S. economic growth. It's here, and it's going to last several more years. First-quarter 2007 gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at a terrible 1.3%. All other countries in the G8 — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the U.K. — are growing faster than the U.S.
By: Hans_Wagner Investors who want to beat the market are wondering if the recent rise will ever stop going up. The stock market is experiencing unheard of price appreciation that is breaking all times highs for the DJIA, the Transports and the Utilities. The DJIA is up 23 of the last 26 days, a move that has never occurred before. The DJIA did move up 22 of 25 days in 1955. Also, the S&P 500 is close to the all time high and the NASDAQ is reaching highs not seen for several years. Is this a short term situation or will the markets continue to surprise to the upside for some time to come? According to Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest , this event is not a sign of anything in particular. It is just noise in the random walk down Wall Street. Let's look at some other factors that might shed more light on the markets.
By: Jim_Willie_CB The newest deceptions are with jobs and housing. Each is much worse than reported. The housing decline might be as much as 15% worse than reported, which leads to much bigger job loss than is reported. Most of the home construction job loss is under the table, to people not on state jobless insurance programs, and to immigrant workers paid in cash. Both fall through the statistical cracks in those home frames and plywood floors underlayments. A quick preface on the two biggest corrupted statistics first, since of paramount importance. The US Federal Reserve will likely respond to more rapid job loss, and to more rapid home sector erosion decline. When they do, expect an official rate cut sequence to resemble that of 2001. As in, sharp & sudden. The signals surround us, that the major powers are in the process of permitting the USDollar to fall. .
By: Clive_Maund In the last update, published on or after 16th April, we expected gold to drop back from the $690 area due to the bearish COT structure, and that is what has happened. The latest COTs are not good news for bulls, with the Commercial shorts still at a high level - high enough to preclude a significant advance in the near future, and to maintain the risk of a substantial decline.
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