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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

UK Property Watch - Can You Beat the Housing Market?

Housing-Market / UK Housing May 13, 2009 - 10:23 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday marked the second hourly showing of the BBC's daily "UK Property Watch" programme shown on BBC2 at 8pm that began on Monday and is set to end this Friday. The aim is to provide analysis on the UK housing market and regional house price trends. However having watched two episodes, I get the distinct impression that the BBC have padded out the useful content of perhaps just two hours of programming to over five hours just to fill the TV schedule which has resulted in repetitive interviews asking the same questions of alternative guests that are either in favour of a UK housing market bottom or are against a property bottom. In fact the same questions are being asked of the same guests as I am sure Merryn Somerset Webb of the Money Week magazine gave near enough the same answers to the questions as she did during yesterdays show.


Myself, as a 20 year housing market analysis veteran, I do tend to be seek out the housing market programme's so as to see if I can garner a new angle from which to interpret house price trends in my own ongoing analysis of the UK housing bear market that marches onwards to its 2nd anniversary this coming August. However watching the "UK Property Watch", I kept finding myself becoming easily distracted and switching channels as whilst some of the content was interesting, many, many aspects were clearly just filler to make up the the hour long programming slot, for instance having the presenters running around on the high streets sticking Up and Down house price stickers onto shoppers was a meaningless 15 minute exercise.

The net effect of this is lack of any real analysis and confusing to and fro chit chat on the sofa would be to leave the viewers puzzled and more confused than had they not watched the program at all! Seems like programming for programming's sake, the money would have been far better spent on say the BBC2 Horizon team that could actually taking the time to perform a proper analysis of the housing market.

In summary, the "UK Property watch" is a wasted opportunity and more akin to breakfast TV sofa gossip than able to provide any real answers as to the real question of where house prices are going over the next few years, perhaps Friday's program will have a final conclusion but I wouldn't bank on it.

UK Housing Market Analysis

My recent updated in-depth analysis concluded that those looking for an near term bottom in the UK housing market are going to be greatly disappointed with little to suggest that the overall trend of house prices is going to stabilise at these lower levels let alone start to rise. All home owners can expect is a few months of stability following which the bear market is set to continue albeit at a more measured rate as the market remains firmly in the grip of the panic stage as originally elaborated upon in the analysis of December 2008.

The UK housing bear market trend is expected to moderate for 2009 from the forecast -16% towards -10%, however the downtrend is expected to continue for many more years at a shallower pace as the housing market depression will have the effect of slowly sapping the will of home owners who continue to mistakenly hold on to hope of a return of the housing boom to sell into that will FAIL to materialise as the house prices eventually drift towards the forecast for a peak to trough contraction of approx 38%.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

JohnW
19 May 09, 23:12
-38% Peak to Trough Too Optimistic

Nadeem,

Your prediction of -38% peak to trough surely does not take into account the overshoot on the downside that always accompanies property crashes? Also, have you factored in the certainty that we will have interest rate rises in the near future? This is sure to have a greater negative impact than currently allowed in your model.


Nadeem_Walayat
20 May 09, 01:09
UK house Prices

On the balance of probabilities, i.e based on ongoing analysis the most recent being Uk inflation analysis, my updated forecast as of Dec 08 is probably now more on the more pessemistic side, i.e. the quality of the house price depression will depend on the quality of the bounce in the economy which I see bottoming in 3rd Q 2009 which at the time had not fully factored in the positive impacts of the stealth bull market that began in march 2009.


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