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Financial Markets 2010 Scenario's Building

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Dec 19, 2009 - 02:55 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy focus over the coming week is in completing the UK inflation analysis and forecast that is at the core of what happens to subsequent market trends as it directly feeds into interest rates, house prices, economy and stocks. Last years analysis and concluding forecasts for RPI and CPI proved remarkably accurate (30 Dec 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009) and hence the inflation road map resulted in the generation of many accurate projections for subsequent trends throughout 2009 and especially for UK savers that if they followed my cue of fixing savings at above 5% for 1 - 2 years would not have been burned by the subsequent crash in UK interest rates to pittance of as low as 0.1% on savings accounts, shame on you HBOS.


I get plenty of emails asking what should savers do now? Bear with me for a couple more weeks as I continue to assemble all of the pieces of the 2010 finance outlook puzzle.

Given that 2010 looks set to be just as uncertain and volatile as 2009 has been, I have gone the extra mile this year by starting the analysis in early November that will culminate into a ebook containing many projected trends that I will make available for free at the end of this month.

Labour Busts the Countries Monthly Budget Deficit Record with a £20 billion black hole for November 2009, not so long ago £20 billion would be the deficit for a whole year! More on this later today.

COP15 COP OUT - Global Warming action a case of too little to late to make ANY difference, which ironically means we may freeze in Europe! All I can do as an analyst is to focus on how to monetize on the global warming mega-trend.

The U.S. Dollar rallied strongly during the week finally achieving the buy trigger of 77.00 which now targets USD 84. The dollar trigger has been a long time coming with the original analysis dating back to August 2009, and updated on 2nd November 2009. The subsequent price action that saw the dollar break below 75 does call on an in depth analysis as the break was a sign of weakness. .

Robert Prechter says - Investors bought into the "stocks for the long run case" and got killed, prompting a record outpour into muni bond funds. But is this any safer? Read More

Which analysts should you pay greater attention to during 2010 ?

The answer is those that provided the most accurate analysis for 2009 have a greater probability of being right during 2010. In this regard, please do continue to vote for past articles (900+ votes to date) to help evaluate analysts, the following google searches will help get you started.

Articles published between Sept 08 and Sept 09 will be counted, see voting guide here

Source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15926.html

Your 2010 Scenario's Building Analyst wishing you all a Merry Christmas.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

 

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Comments

Philip Townsend
20 Dec 09, 05:15
Inflation 2010

Hey Nadeem,

As always enjoy reading your stuff. Before you go projecting inflation in 2010, I suggest you take a look at the reconstructed US M6 graph circulating at present. With less than 70% capacity utilisation and 18% unemployment, IMHO, deflation remains the more important concern. I would put mony, in fact HAVE put money, on there being no increase in the Fed Funds rate in 2010.

Keep up the great work and thanks,

Philip


John Bingham
22 Dec 09, 02:16
Inflation v deflation

Nadeem interested in your answer to

In order to get comfortable with an inflation arguments I think people need some comprehension of how all the extra £ gets into the hands of consumers in order that it can chase goods and services. We saw it happen with wage spirals in the 70's and credit expansion on the back of securitisation over the past decade. But what now. Wages are contracting, credit is contracting unemployment is rising


d
22 Dec 09, 05:56
Re inflation 2010

I agree 100% with Phillip on rates and inflation. Rising inflation will not be a concern in 2010.


Nadeem_Walayat
22 Dec 09, 09:20
inflation / deflation

John

I call it an inflation mega-trend because prices are on a perpeptual upward trend.

The purpose of the analysis will NOT be to support a DEFLATION / INFLATION argument but rather conclude in an accurate projection for UK RPI and CPI, which will follow in a week or so

Best,


Roy
23 Dec 09, 12:20
US Mortgage Resets
Nadeem, not much press about this lately? What about this and what will it do to stock prices? Aren’t we in for a HUGE second wave down in the markets? Banks have changed mark to market accounting and generally have avoided this issue. Interest rates are increasing, WITHOUT the Fed raising rates! Resets ahead, Foreclosures abound. Even without the interest increases, the principal payment increases with kill the ability to pay. Next time you are on CNBC, I support you to tell Joe Kernan what you think, but he is nothing but a talking head who has not concept of what he is talking about relative to LONG term views. He lives for the next day, just as all CNBC newscasters do. http://seekingalpha.com/article/179329-the-forthcoming-prime-mortgage-meltdown


Nadeem_Walayat
23 Dec 09, 12:21
US Housing

My focus is the UK housing market.

I last looked at US housing in mid 2008 - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5257.html

Perhaps time for an update.

Nadeem Walayat,


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