Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" - 27th Jun 20
Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals - 27th Jun 20
Why People Have Always Held Gold - 27th Jun 20
Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance - 27th Jun 20
INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth - 25th Jun 20
Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here - 25th Jun 20
Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong - 25th Jun 20
Silver Price Trend Analysis - 24th Jun 20
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started - 24th Jun 20
Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal - 24th Jun 20
WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised - 24th Jun 20
All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold - 24th Jun 20
Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range - 23rd Jun 20
Elon Musk Mocks Nikola Motors as “Dumb.” Is He Right? - 23rd Jun 20
MICROSOFT Transforming from PC Software to Cloud Services AI, Deep Learning Giant - 23rd Jun 20
Stock Market Decline Resumes - 22nd Jun 20
Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead - 22nd Jun 20
Where is the US Dollar trend headed ? - 22nd Jun 20
Most Shoppers have Stopped Following Supermarket Arrows, is Coughing the New Racism? - 22nd Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Stock Market Throws QE Taper Party Not Tantrum

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 18, 2013 - 11:01 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The stock market closed sharply higher today following the U.S. Fed central banks decision to start tapering by reducing the rate of QE money printing from $85 billion to $75 billion per month. The immediate reaction by the stock market was to ADD near 300 points to the Dow, breaking back above the 16000 level to close at 16,168.


Clearly a lot of traders had followed the media taper tantrums hype and gone short into the announcement, so approx 50% of the rally is as a consequence of short covering so probably the stock market will trend lower during the next few trading days. Also this further confirms my expectations for a trend for RISING interest market rates during 2014.

So, yes the Fed has started to taper, but in my opinion all they are doing is marginally slowing down the over heating money printing presses as we remain a long way from halting QE let alone unwinding the mountain of QE to date.

Meanwhile bitcoin suffered another heart attack today as it homes in on my first target of $500 (05 Dec 2013 - Bitcoin Mania Bubble Bursts, China Triggers Price Crash Start, Technical Forecast ), ultimate target is $15!

The Taper Tantrum Mantra Prior to Fed's Announcement

The mainstream media, financial sales industry and blogosfear were once more found to be on the WRONG side of the trend as near a years mantra of being convinced that the stock market would immediately throw a taper tantrum on the news that the Fed's announcement to start withdrawing QE easy money, that would off course obviously result in a bear market or even a stock market crash that turned out to be just as worthless as the mantra of non existant deflation has been of over the past 5 years!

Googling for a taste of taper tantrums that the media has been throwing -

Similarly now expect the media with the benefit of hindsight to be full of reasons why the stock market soared instead of plunging such as that is a sign of economic health or that $10 billion reduction is much less than it could have been whilst completely missing the big picture that the Fed is STILL inflating asset prices by $75 billion per month that is being LEVERAGED!

My view has remained consistent since March 2009, that's right MARCH 2009 ! 15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 (112775 Reads).

We remain in one of the greatest stocks bull markets of all time that looks set to continue into 2014 as I wrote over a month ago.

Stock Market Forecast 2014

My existing stock market forecast (11 Nov 2013 - Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally?) is for the Dow to -

1. Target a rally to above 16,000 by late December 2013.

2. For the rally to continue to above Dow 17,000 into March 2014.

The latest price action confirms forecasts expectations for the Dow to be trading at above 16,000 during late December and also despite a probable volatile January remains on track for a rally to beyond Dow 17,000 into March 2014, therefore I see no reason for another in-depth stock market analysis at this point in time.

Also illustrated by the video version of the forecast below, that acts as a timely reminder of the crash is always coming mantra nonsense such as that of John P Hussman's highly regurgitated article of early November warning of a 40-55% crash just as the stocks bull market was bottoming following its last correction.

Ensure you remain subscribed to my always free newsletter for an ongoing series of in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecasts emailed straight to your in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43637.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

R.E.B
19 Dec 13, 15:01
Gesture politics

At least when Bernanke writes his memoirs in 20 years time he will be able to say he started to do the right thing and saw what was coming etc, but in the overall scheme of things it is just gesture politics. One thing Iam starting to notice is that during bull runs every bit of news is regarded with a posisitve spin regardless and likewise when something is in decline no news is ever good enough. Look at Gold, down when tapering was off the table and still down now it is on!

Regards. REB


Yuriy
23 Dec 13, 14:00
China

Hi Nadeem

you mention in your previous books that China has a great potential for an investor.

Is it still the case?

Is now is the time to enter?

Thank you and Happy Christmas!


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules