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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

The Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2013 - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Raged On!

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013 Jan 04, 2014 - 02:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The stock market surged higher into the end of 2013 to close well above Dow 16,000 at 16,576, a whopping gain of 26.5% for the year! This for a year that contained widespread repeated calls of not only why the stock market could NOT rise during 2013 but also that a stock market crash was always imminent, just as had been for virtually the whole of 2012. But don't worry, there will be plenty more cliff-hanger events during 2014 to illicit even more intense perma bear mantra such as the return of the U.S. debt ceiling crisis.


I last laid out a road map for my stock market expectations into March 2014 during early November 2013 - Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally? Drone Wars and the Nuclear Apocalypse.

I expect the Stock market to break above the upper channel of Dow 15,770 and be trading above 16,000 by late December. Furthermore my analysis suggests that despite a volatile January that will likely bring forward many bankrupt doom merchants, the stock market will likely continue its rally into March 2014, when it is highly probable that the Dow will be trading above 17,000!

The stock market is running significantly beyond my expectations which therefore offers much opportunity for volatility during January as the market continues to meander its way towards my target of 17,000 by early March 2014. Which I am sure will give the bears many more opportunities to be crucified!

Whilst I will come back to the stock market periodically during 2014, my analysis going into 2014 is wholly focused on the housing markets as I see this as the year Britain will be transformed once more from fear to greed as housing mania grips the nation. Don't get me wrong by confusing what I deem to be the most probable outcome against what I would consider to be in the best interests of the people of Britain for all that the housing bull market will deliver is to entice people to get into even more debt as they are encouraged to borrow what they will not be able to service when interest rates rise, for if we have learned one lesson from the financial crisis than it is that the banking crime syndicate that controls Britain NEVER LOSES! They want to convert everyone into a debt slave and a housing bull market is just what they need for people to be once more brainwashed into borrowing, for instance thinking that equity release for consumption of chinese junk is capitalising on the rise in the value of their homes when in reality it is just amounts to an INCREASE IN DEBT that the debt slaves will have to service from future wages that has nothing to do with their property values!

Do subscribe to my FREE newsletter for in-depth and detailed trend forecasts during 2014 and for access to download my latest ebook which will be available for download within a couple of weeks.

Top 10 Most Popular Articles of 2013

1. U.S. Housing Real Estate Market House Prices Trend Forecast 2013 to 2016

Jan 12th, 2013 - Reads: 47,835 By: Nadeem_Walayat

US House Prices Forecast 2013 to 2016

US House Prices Forecast Conclusion - As you read this, the embryonic nominal bull market of 2012 is morphing into a real terms bull market of 2013, with each subsequent year expected to result in an accelerating multi-year trend that will likely see average prices rise by over 30% by early 2016, which translates into a precise house prices forecast based on the most recent Case-Shiller House Price Index (CSXR) of 158.8 (Oct 2012 - released 26th Dec 2012) targeting a rise to 207 by early 2016 (+30.4%).

2. Gold Price Forecast to Hit $2,500 Before End of 2014

Oct 17th, 2013 - Reads: 43,997 By: Peter Krauth

Let's look at why gold will hit $2,500 within 12 months.

Gold Driver #1: Mining Hits Crisis Stage

A crash in prices can render many of the world's gold miners unprofitable overnight, which is what happened earlier this year.

Many cannot afford to mine gold below $1,250.

The truth is, some well-known global gold producers are facing the possibility of having to close down a number of their operations right now. That's putting a huge damper on gold mining in 2013.

And that stands in stark contrast to what's happening in global gold demand.

3. Stocks Stealth Bull Market Trend Forecast 2013 and Beyond

Feb 10th, 2013 - Reads: 39,125 By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market wants to trade at a new all time high (14,164) and is fighting hard to do so against strong technical resistance that call for an increasingly severe correction. Therefore I am timing the correction to begin after the New All time high, though in reality it could take place at anytime. The quality of the correction will likely be severe and extend for several months into late Summer that would set the scene for an strong end of year rally that will likely carry the Stock market to a new all time high. At this point the analysis resolves to a new high of around 14,500.

In summary this analysis concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Dow to target a correction into Late Summer of 12,500 to be followed by a strong trend to a new all time high of 14,500 probably during Early January 2014, as illustrated by the below graph.

Nadeem Walayat Stock Market Forecast 2013

4. Next, John Lewis Christmas Sales 2013 - All High Street Start Dates

Dec 22nd, 2013 - Reads: 37,769 By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's Christmas! That means a month long media induced buying frenzy for the masses to engage in as sales fever pitch reaches its maximum intensity in the run up to Boxing Day. However, a word of caution as this is NOT 2008 when many retailers were teetering on the edge of bankruptcy that would claim many such as Woolworth's and Comet, and thus were panicked into real deep discounts to quickly offload stock to improve their cash-flows. Instead, now we have a strong UK economic recovery underway that is resulting in an highly engineered sales season which started off with over inflated prices calculated to generated discounts of as much as 75% so that items can still be sold for a hefty profit.

5. Gold Price Trend Forecast for April 2013

Mar 25, 2013 - Reads: 36,702 By: Clive_Maund

With an astronomic and ever growing debt and derivatives overhang, there are essentially only two choices for the world economy. One is to deal with it head on, which would trigger a deflationary implosion that would create an economic wasteland leading to anarchy, riots and revolution etc. Quite clearly nobody wants that, least of all those in power. So that only leaves one other option, which is to keep things limping along for as long as possible by clamping interest rates at zero to stop debt compounding and to print whatever quantity of money is required to keep the status quo going. The big difference between now and 2008 is that this is now a truly global strategy with the WWEW, the World Wide Elite Web, now controlling and directing a coordinated campaign of liquidity enhancement to achieve this objective. For evidence of this you need look no further than the Fed delivering boatloads of newly created cash to the European Union to prop up its banks, or to Japan suddenly abandoning decades of deflationary policy to get with the plan, which is why the yen has collapsed. However, the Fed's generosity towards Europe may not extend to saving the euro, which US elites may view as a nuisance because it potentially undermines the dollar's reserve currency status.

6. It will be madness in America soon, Out of control

Aug 3rd, 2013 - Reads: 34,913 By: Michael_T_Bucci

I bought a copy of USA Today Weekend at the supermarket and wanted to gag. A front-page lead story showing a picture of Edward Snowden's Russian permit was titled: "Welcome, Comrade Snowden" (Is John McCain now writing their headlines?). To read American mainstream news is to collide with an illusory but impenetrable wall of rigid propaganda (rah, rah, America #1; rah, rah, S&P 1700; rah, rah, Washington vs. a world of enemies). In short, the paper's almost one-million readers were encouraged. In so many words, "Don't worry about NSA. Congress has heard the American people and is now moving to reform it. Sleep well tonight, Senator Patrick Leahy is awake."

7. Jim Rogers Gold Price Forecast and the Agriculture Boom

Apr 18th, 2013 - Reads: 32,843 By: Garrett Baldwin

According to Rogers gold prices have even further to fall.

"I have repeatedly babbled about $1200-1300/oz., but that is just because that would be a 30-35% correction which is normal in markets," he told Business Insider this week. "But I am a hopeless market timer/trader."

Rogers cites four key forces fueling the current gold sell-off:

■India raised its gold import tax from 4% to 6%, which has limited the demand for gold in the world's largest market for the metal.
■Technical analysts and chartists have been arguing that prices would fall.
■The collapse of the Bitcoin over the past two weeks coincides with many of the digital currency's owners also owning gold.
■Finally, Rogers believes Germany's demand that Cyprus sell part of its holdings in gold to alleviate debt concerns added to the sell-off.

8. Japan Hyper QE Inflation Wars, Bank of England's Bail-in Secret, Buy Gold, Silver?

Apr 8th, 2013 - Reads: 30,958 By: Nadeem_Walayat

Since Japan started quantitative easing off some 20 years ago so it should not come as any surprise that it's latest mega-money printing actions could be termed as 'Hyper QE' which illustrates the global inflation mega-trend in progress as it goes that step further than those in the West by announcing that it will seek to DOUBLE Japan's monetary base over the next 2 years that amounts to INFLATING the already QE drenched money supply by an additional £1 trillion, flooding the economy with new money through the mechanisms of mainly buying liquid assets such government & corporate bonds, stocks and sector funds such as the property sector. As an comparison Japan is now printing money at a rate that is more than DOUBLE that of the U.S. which equates to 1% of GDP per month, which converts into potential EXTRA inflation of 12% per annum! Much of which will leak out of Japan and into other world economies.

The effect of printing money is the same whether it's in Japanese Yen, British Pounds or US Dollar, and that effect is to inflate asset prices that are leveraged to inflation whilst increasing the rate of free fall of the currency against other fiat currencies which are also in a perpetual state of free fall as all governments are engaged in the same policies of competitive money and debt printing to bribe their respective voters with.

9. Cyprus Shows Your Savings Will be Stolen! UK Theft is by Means of High Inflation

Mar 25, 2013 - Reads: 30,006 By: Nadeem_Walayat

The emerging details early Monday morning in the face of a literally eye popping deadline are that of at least 40% of deposits over Euro 100k will be stolen in the two largest cypriot banks, one of them Laiki (2nd largest) will definitely be wound down, many mainstream commentators have jumped onto the fact that the depositors will receive shares in the banks which might be fine if the shares were given AFTER the banks were restructured i.e. bad assets being written down, but they are not instead the depositors are likely to be handed what amounts to worthless toilet paper in exchange for their hard cash.

10. Gold Price Trend Forecast Into the End of 2013

Oct 7th, 2013 - Reads: 29,086 By: Clive_Maund

I am going to end this with a very important message. We have seen that gold and silver are very probably completing Head-and-Shoulders bottom reversals, with prices having dropped down to suspected Right Shoulder low buy spots. In addition, and most importantly, we have seen for ourselves in this update the insane undervaluation of stocks relative to bullion, which is characteristic of a major sector bottom. What this means is that you can go ahead and buy large and mid-cap gold stocks now, and juniors with strong balance sheets that are either producers or close to production, with confidence, and quit worrying about day to day price movements afterwards, because you know that you are buying either at or very close to a major low. So rather than buy the sector and then sit on the edge of your chair biting your nails as you staring at changing prices on the screen, do what Smart Money does, buy them, bank them, and then go fishing or playing golf or whatever you enjoy doing with your leisure time, confident that you have bought stocks that are ludicrously undervalued and that it is only a matter of time before they rally to become more fairly valued.

Your analyst wishing everyone a happy and prosperous new year.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43837.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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