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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Stocks Bull Market 5th Year Anniversary Grinding Towards Another New All Time High

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Mar 09, 2014 - 06:00 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

One of the most hated stocks bull markets in history has passed its fifth year milestone with the DJIA last closing at 16,453, less than 1% away from its all time closing high of 16,577. This now five year long bull market that I termed as a stocks stealth bull market for much of its life-time has remained mostly invisible to the mass of retail investors who followed the approx 95% of that which purports to be market commentators but in reality are just journalists regurgitating ad nauseam the ramblings of clueless academics and a financial sales industry that is mostly populated by failed traders who have turned to selling services and products that never worked in the first place to trader and investor wannabe's, tools and services that are guaranteed to fail due to the fact their primary purpose is to perpetuate sales when the real secrets for successful trading are diametrically opposed to that which most are exposed to as illustrated below.


The stocks bull market as measured by the stock market index that I have been tracking for some 30 years now, the DJIA closed at 16,453 up over 150%, whilst other popular stock market indices have recorded even greater gains such as the broader S&P500 up 177%, tek stock Nasdaq up over 240% and the small caps Russell 2000 up more than 250% that illustrate what I have consistently written for the DURATION of the past 5 years in that this bull market will turn out to be one of the GREATEST BULL MARKETS IN HISTORY!

It is now 5 years since I strongly flagged the start of the stocks stealth bull market (Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), which I have consistently reiterated in well over 200 articles and 3 ebook's (2010,11,13), where my strategy has been very, very simple, no black box voodoo to sell garbage to the unsuspecting masses but simply this - " The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented". And, you can't get any simpler than that !

However, one thing that has NEVER changed is the mass of media confusion (over 95% of what you read and watch) that purports to be stock market commentary, that just like clock work consistently warns that the bull market is not sustainable and that its end or even worse a crash is always imminent, which is even the norm today!

My last analysis of the Dow which I wrote at the heights of the most recent imminent bear market mantra during February 2014 concluded in the following trend expectation:

3rd Feb 2014 - Stocks Bull Market Over? Are the Bears About to Break...even?

The current stock market correction looks set to attempt to revisit 15,000. How close it gets to 15,000 I can't tell, perhaps half way, just that the correction is not done to the downside. Following which the price chart implies that the Dow will enter an upwardly sloping trading range that would target a NEW all time high. However given the nature of trading ranges it is difficult to say how many swings it would take for such an outcome to occur, i.e. the last such trading range comprised 7 swings before breaking higher. This one could be quite brief and just comprise 2 swings as indicated by the chart, which could imply a New Dow high by early April, though that does not mean that the Dow would be able to hold the high as it could remain in the upward sloping range for some time which implies Sell in May and Go away as probable.

So to answer the question - Is the stocks bull market over ?

NO ! No sign whatsoever that this (what people decades from now will look back on as being the greatest bull market in history) bull market is anywhere near being over!

The subsequent price action closely matches my trend expectations for the Dow to bottom around 15,250, and therefore implied that the correction of just 8% was over. Can you imagine all that doom and gloom that surrounded what in the end just amounted to just a minor 8% correction!

My next in-depth stock market analysis will follow in early April 2014, following the completion of my latest ebook in the Inflation Mega-trend series. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get BOTH in your email in box.

My last article followed on from the analysis of Mid November 2013 that sought to cover a trend forecast into March 2014 as excerpted below:

11 Nov 2013 - Stock Market Forecast 2014 Crash or Rally? Drone Wars and the Nuclear Apocalypse

I expect the Stock market to break above the upper channel of Dow 15,770 and be trading above 16,000 by late December. Furthermore my analysis suggests that despite a volatile January that will likely bring forward many bankrupt doom merchants, the stock market will likely continue its rally into March 2014, when it is highly probable that the Dow will be trading above 17,000!

Which followed a article that made my views clear on whether or not the bull market had ended during the heights of the U.S. government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis of October 2013.

03 Oct 2013 - U.S. Government Shutdown Great for Stocks Bull Market, Bears Will be Crucified Again

The bottom line is this the US government shutdown is GREAT NEWS! because for bull markets to persist and continue they NEED BAD NEWS every few months, THEY NEED MOST PEOPLE TO BE SKEPTICAL, TOO AFRAID TO INVEST! And so it continues to be the case for the DURATION OF THIS BULL MARKET, where over 90%, NINTEY PERCENT OF Market commentators have been WRONG and continue to be WRONG, Everyone who has just proclaimed its END IS WRONG and Will BE CRUCIFIED, just as they have been crucified at every market turn for the past FIVE YEARS !

YOU WANT TO LOVE MARKETS THAT ARE HATED!

YOU WANT TO BE AFRAID OF MARKETS THAT ARE LOVED!

UNDERSTAND THIS - THIS stocks stealth bull market is one of the GREATEST bull markets in HISTORY!

And so the series of articles continues all the way back to the birth of the stocks stealth bull market 5 years ago whilst the perma clueless bears are still waiting for the bear market to begin or even crash, where clearly if they had followed their own advice then they would have bankrupted themselves several times over by now, which goes to show that most of that which is written about the market is by those who do not even trade!

The Real Secrets of Successful Trading

My last ebook in the stocks stealth bull market series (Feb 2013) extensively covered what I deemed to be the real secrets if successful trading that you can Download for FREE.

Part 3: The Real Secrets of Successful Trading,       Multiple Technological Revolutions
     Simple Stock Market Investing Strategy
41
     Know Your Risk of Ruin
41
    Central Banks and Governments Do not Understand the Risk of Ruin!
42
     Trading and the Risk of Ruin
43
     Debt and the Risk of Ruin
43
     Debt is Slavery
44
     Mortgages - Debt Till Death literally!
45
     Why I Love Bear Markets
46
     Is the West About to Accelerate Away From the Rest?
47
     Western Unemployment
48
     The Real Threats to the West
48
     The Danger of a New Dark Age
50
     Quantum Leap in Human Productivity
50
     Exponential Technological Development
53
     Multiple Technological Revolutions
54
     How to Profit from The Next Technological Revolutions
58
     Stock Market Crash Investing Lessons
61
     The Real Secrets of Successful Trading
65
     Chaos Theory - Trading Market Fractals
67

 

Ensure you are subscribed to my always FREE newsletter for my latest analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts in the stocks stealth bull market series.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44757.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

jgizzo
14 Mar 14, 20:04
MF GLOBAL TYPE CRISIS

This weekend FEAR is back.. Bull Market is Over.. nice 5 year anniversary.

April brings more conflict between USA and Russia sending markets down into July.

More than a 20% correction is coming.

Agree?


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