Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold - 25th Mar 19
Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? - 25th Mar 19
EasySMX Wireless Games Controllers Review - 25th Mar 19
Stock Market Short-term Top - 25th Mar 19
UK Population Growth - Latest ONS Immigration Statistics and Consequences - 24th Mar 19
The Fed Follows Trump's Tweets, And Does The Right Thing - 24th Mar 19
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? - 24th Mar 19
Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves - 23rd Mar 19
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops - 23rd Mar 19
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis - 23rd Mar 19
US Dollar Breakdown on Fed Was Much Worse Than It Looks - 23rd Mar 19
Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals - 23rd Mar 19
Which Currency Pairs Stand to Benefit from Prevailing Risk Aversion? - 23rd Mar 19
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 29, 2015 - 10:43 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The pollsters and political pundits paint a picture of Labour standing a good chance of winning Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat that illustrates the national battle that Labour is engaged in against the Lib-Dems and Conservatives in key marginal seats across England which means that despite losing as many as 40 of their 41 Scottish MP's to the SNP, Labour still hopes to have won enough seats in England and Wales to form a minority government under the strings of the SNP.


Sheffield Hallam Lord Ashcroft Opinion Poll

Conservative 16%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrat 34%
UKIP 7%
Green 6%
Other 1%

Whilst the earlier Survation poll puts Nick Clegg 10% behind the Labour candidate (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).

Sheffield Hallam illustrates what is playing out in the national polls that persistently conclude in the failure of the Conservatives / Lib Dems to win enough seats for the coalition to continue. Therefore resulting in the only workable outcome being one of an Labour SNP supported government.

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

26th Apr 26th Apr 27th Apr 27th Apr
Conservative 296 272 279 286 274
Labour 262 271 282 267 270
SNP 35 55 47 48 54
Lib Dem 30 26 18 24 27
UKIP 5 3 1 1 3
Others 22 22 22 22 22

 

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 302 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL

Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 296 - FAIL

Labour + SNP (51) =323 - SUCCESS

However, the critical problem that Labour faces and which is not being factored into the opinion polls is that at the constituency level, Labour is actually NOT in a battle against the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives as I explained at length in constituency level video analysis of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, an election battle against the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard who apparently leads in the polls by 2%.

Which means that whilst the following may be the perception of the mainstream media and most political pundits for Sheffield Hallam and many other Labour target seats -

Instead the reality following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -

Therefore Labour is NOT fighting election battles against the Lib-Dems or the Conservatives but rather they are effectively battling against the Coalition party. Which means that in this general election we will witness tactical voting on a far greater scale amongst Lib-Dems and Conservatives than we saw at the 2010 general election, the consequences of which will mean that both the Lib Dems and Conservatives will retain many more seats than the opinion polls suggest i.e. that Nick Clegg rather than being at risk of losing his seat, in reality will win with a sizable majority of at least 5000 votes as Conservative voters will in great numbers vote for the Lib-Dems in those seats where the Conservatives are not the main competitor so as to increase the probability for the continuation of the coalition government.

So for the Lib-dems the real election battleground will be where the Conservatives are the main competitor as the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems. Whilst at the same time trying to ensure the Lib-dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP nightmare.

This reinforces my long-standing view that the opinion polls are wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives and Lib-dems will actually win by a wide margin.

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Also see my recent video analysis that explains Britain's housing crisis.

The bottom line is that in the countdown to election day expect Lib Dem and Conservative politicians to increasingly promote the continuation of the Coalition against the dangers of a Labour SNP election outcome which will prompt many more Tory and Lib dem voters to vote tactically so that far fewer seats are lost to Labour. Whilst in Scotland tactical voting amongst the 55% anti-independence voters ensures that the SNP will do nowhere near as well as the 50-55 seats that the opinion polls suggest.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50454.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules