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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Labour Leads in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam Seat, Latest Ashcroft Opinion Poll

ElectionOracle / Sheffield Apr 30, 2015 - 07:17 AM GMT

By: N_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The latest Lord Ashcroft opinion poll for Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency shows that Labour has managed to maintain a slender lead over the Lib Dem Leader as Nick Clegg fights a ferocious battle to prevent losing his seat to the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard, which if lost would scupper any hopes for a continuation of the Tory led Coalition as without Nick Clegg the left of centre Lib Dems with veer towards the Labour party even if it would result in messy outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists.


Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam Opinion Polls

Party 2010 28th March 2015 29th April 2015
Liberal Democrat 53% 34% 36%
Labour 16% 36% 37%
Conservative 23% 16% 15%
UKIP 2% 7% 7%
Green 2% 6% 4%
English Democrats 1% 1% 1%

Whilst Labour has managed to cling onto a slender lead over the Lib Dems by 1% on 37% against 36%. However, the opinion polls do show a trend where tactical voters are favouring the Lib Dem leader on a 2 to 1 margin i.e. for every 1% Labour tends to add to its percentage share of the vote the Lib Dems adds 2%. Which is not so surprising given that out of the remaining 27% of other party voters, 23% are right of centre whilst only 4% are left of centre which leaves a huge pool for the Lib Dems to capitalise upon on election day when the choice facing Conservatives and UKIP voters will be whether to lend their vote to Nick Clegg or see the Sheffield Hallam seat fall to Labour, especially as the Lib Dems have literally gone to war in an attempt to hold onto some 40 key seats that includes Sheffield Hallam as illustrated by my recent video analysis:

This supports my longstanding view that the opinion polls and mainstream political pundits continue to paint an erroneous picture that seats such as Nick Cleggs are at risk of being lost...

... not just for Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency but right across England that tend to grossly under estimate how many votes and seats the Lib-Dems and Conservatives as the parties of government will actually win on election day. Where instead of Sheffield Hallam being an election battle between Labour and the Lib-Dems -

Instead the reality for many voters following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -

Therefore at the constituency level Labour is NOT fighting election battles against the Lib-Dems or the Conservatives but rather they are effectively battling against the Coalition party. Which means that in this general election we will witness tactical voting on a far greater scale amongst Lib-Dems and Conservatives than we saw at the 2010 general election where as many as 50% of voters will lend their vote to a Coalition partner. The consequences of which will be that both the Lib Dems and Conservatives will retain many more seats than the opinion polls suggest i.e. that Nick Clegg rather than being at risk of losing his seat, in reality will win with a sizable majority of at least 5000 votes as Conservative voters will in great numbers vote for the Lib-Dems in those seats where the Conservatives are not the main competitor so as to increase the probability for the continuation of the Tory led Coalition government rather than risk a Labour government.

So for the Lib-Dems the real election battleground is not against Labour but the Conservatives where they are the main competitor, as the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems. Whilst at the same time trying to ensure the Lib-Dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my latest election in-depth analysis and concluding seats forecast due to be sent out Friday 1st May.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50469.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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