Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Kill Zone - 9th Aug 18
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam - 9th Aug 18
Ignore the Stock Market “midterm election year”, Which is “supposed” to be Weak - 9th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - Video - 9th Aug 18
Tips on Maximizing Small Serviced Offices Space - 9th Aug 18
VIX’s Collapse is Bullish for VIX and the Stock Market - 9th Aug 18
Vestles Platform Offers Several Key Trading Tools - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 2 - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 1 - 8th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis - 8th Aug 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 7th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - 7th Aug 18
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Video - 7th Aug 18
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese - 7th Aug 18
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' - 7th Aug 18
Alex Jones Banned! Will Unapproved Opinions Be Censored Off the Internet? - 7th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline - 7th Aug 18
First Time Buyers Need to ‘boost the affordability’ of Their Move Alone  - 7th Aug 18
Long Term Care Homes as an Investment are Heating Up! - 7th Aug 18
The Exponential Inflationary Stocks Bull Market - Video - 6th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Change Service Dash Warning Message - 6th Aug 18
Restructuring of Western Economic Power - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market and Economy False Narratives That are Just Wrong - 6th Aug 18
VPN – Is It Worth It? - 6th Aug 18
All You Need to Know About Umbrella Companies - 6th Aug 18
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video - 5th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 5th Aug 18
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again - 5th Aug 18
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast - 5th Aug 18
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts - 5th Aug 18
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - 5th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Final Opinion Polls Forecast Labour-Lib Dem Minority SNP Supported Government - Election 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 06, 2015 - 08:41 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Whilst the leaders of the three major parties may be busy dashing around the UK on the last day of campaigning ahead of Thursdays poll, in reality they are unlikely to make any difference to election outcome, just as the last 2 months of frenetic campaigning has seen hardly any change in the opinion polls that unanimously point to an extreme hung parliament where even with Lib Dem backing neither Labour, nor the Conservatives will be able to muster a parliamentary working majority.


Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

5th May 5th May 5th May 5th May
Conservative 296 273 282 281 274
Labour 262 268 275 267 270
SNP 35 56 52 51 54
Lib Dem 30 28 18 26 27
UKIP 5 2 1 1 3
Others 22 23 22 24 22

The opinion pollster seats forecasts average to:

  • Conservatives : 277
  • Labour : 270
  • SNP : 53
  • Lib Dems : 25
  • DUP 8

The target number of seats for parties to achieve an effective majority is 323, this is due to the fact that Sinn Fein refuses to send its 5 MP's to Westminister. Which if this time, given an extreme hung parliament choose to act on their advantage then they would probably lean towards favouring the Labour party to deny the Conservatives a majority.

Conservative Led Coalition Calculations

The Conservatives where the opinion polls are concerned face a potential nightmare election outcome where despite being the largest party looks set to be unable to form a majority with the Lib-Dems, even when including other smaller parties such as the DUP due to the weight of the Labour+SNP anti-tory voting block.

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 302 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL

Which means that a Conservatives Queen speech would always be out voted and hence the Conservatives will fail to form a government.

Labour Led Coalition Calculations

The Labour Leader has categorically stated that he would not do a deal with the SNP, no coalition or any formal agreement such as a Confidence and Supply agreement. However, this does not mean that post election Labour would not enter into informal discussions so that the SNP would not vote against a Labour Queen speech as the mantra of the SNP politicians for several months has been to support Labour to keep the 'Tories Out'. Thus strongly implies that the SNP would NOT bring down a Labour government as it is in their interests to pressure Labour towards their policies of going on a debt fuelled spending spree on a UK credit card, which would be impossible to achieve with a Conservative led government.

Labour + Lib-Dems = 295 - FAIL

Labour + Lib-Dems + Plaid Cymru + Greens = 302 - FAIL

However, in reality all Labour would need is the Lib-Dems as they only need to be able to out vote Conservative+DUP on 285 seats as the SNP would not even need to vote to support the Labour party i.e. to abstain from voting which would achieve the same outcome as keeping the Tories out. Therefore Labour wins by default despite only being able to call on 295 MP's to vote in favour of a Labour Queens speech if all of the other left of centre parties also abstained.

To further illustrate the advantage to Labour is if the SNP did vote for a Labour Queens speech then a Labour government would be able to muster an overwhelming commons majority of 348 MP's.

Conservative Nightmare - Minimum of 290MP's

Therefore the Conservatives face a nightmare outcome where even if they clearly lead Labour by say a dozen MP's, they would still lose to the Labour party. For the Conservatives to stand any chance of wielding power then they need to achieve at least 290MPs for 290+ Lib Dem 25 + DUP 8 for 323. And they need to win the extra seats without taking them from the Lib-Dems i.e. taking 13 seats directly from the Lib-Dems would still result in a losing outcome of 302 seats total hence why we will see tactical voting on an unprecedented scale amongst Conservative voters such as my in-depth analysis of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency concluded would happen:

Where instead of Sheffield Hallam being an election battle between Labour and the Lib-Dems -

Instead the reality for many voters following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -

So whilst the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems, at the same time are trying to ensure that the Lib-Dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP.

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

may2015com-uk-election-forecast

Literally flip flops between Labour and Conservative from week to week within a tight 10 seat range of one another. The last swing has been in favour of the Labour party.

Electoralcalculus-uk-election-forecast

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has slowly eroded over time that has now swung in the Conservatives favour. The recent seats forecasts have also swung towards the SNP.

ElectionForecast-uk-election-forecast

Has tended to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead with little change over the past 6 weeks.

TheGuardian-uk-election-forecast

Has tended to exhibit a marginal advantage to the Conservatives within a tight 10 seat band. Implies the Conservatives seat range on election day will be between 274 and 276 seats.

Opinion Polls Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Opinion Polls Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

The last set of opinion polls are flat lining which implies an outcome of Conservatives on 277 against Labour on 270 which would result in a default win for Labour even if the SNP abstain from voting for a Labour Queens speech. Whilst for the Conservatives to stand any chance of forming a government then they need to win at least 290 seats and even then to take most of the extra seats from Labour rather than the Lib-Dems.

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election primarily based on economic and market analysis rather than opinion polls, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb that was most recently iterated in the following video:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that a continuation of the Coalition government is the most probable outcome which means a combined total of at least 323 seats. Therefore come May 8th virtually all pollsters will have egg on their faces as the mainstream media will have flushed untold millions down the drain on commissioning opinion polls that turned out to be WRONG just as the polls were wrong in the run up to the Scottish referendum that was never a 50/50 proposition which at the time I concluded was mainly so as to allow pollsters to sell opinion polls and the mainstream press to sell copy and so it is the case with today's election campaign.

UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over!

There is another reason as well for why the polls were so close and that is one of SALES, the polling industry SELLING a tight election so that the gullible mainstream press would buy their polling services. Therefore painting a picture of a tight race by manipulating the data will have turned out to be a huge money spinner for the polling agencies.

My article concluded in the most probable forecast for the outcome of the result would be for at least show a 10% gap between NO and YES, and definitely not reflective of the mass hysteria.

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for continuing in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecasts.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50544.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules