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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Nick Clegg Lib Dem Leader Wins Sheffield Hallam Surviving Lib Dem Bloodbath - Opinion Polls Wrong

ElectionOracle / Sheffield May 08, 2015 - 05:03 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Whilst the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold across the UK (at 4.55am) that the BBC forecasts could result with a catastrophic loss of 47 seats to just 10. Instead, the Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg has managed to hold onto his affluent Sheffield Hallam seat on a majority of 2,353 votes despite the exit poll, and opinion polls turning out to be wrong.


Nick Clegg Lib Dem 22,215
Oliver Coppard Labour 19,862
Ian Walker Conservative 7,544
Joe Jenkins UKIP 3,575

 

Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam Opinion Polls

Party 2010 28th March 2015 29th April 2015
Liberal Democrat 53% 34% 36%
Labour 16% 36% 37%
Conservative 23% 16% 15%
UKIP 2% 7% 7%
Green 2% 6% 4%
English Democrats 1% 1% 1%

 

However, if the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold as forecast to anywhere near the 10 seat forecast total as illustrated by the loss of Vince Cables and Simon Hughes seats then it is highly likely that Nick Clegg won't remain the Lib Dem leader for long as just indicated in his acceptance speech, especially if the Conservatives don't need the decimated Lib-Dems to achieve a majority which could still happen given the failure of the Exit Poll forecasts to budge an inch in the Lib Dem or Labours direction. If any thing the results are proving more favourable to the Conservatives.

Nick Clegg About to Resign?

"Turning to the national picture, it is now painfully clear that this has been a cruel and punishing night for the Liberal Democrats. The election has profound implications for the country and of course has profound implications for the Liberal Democrats and I will be seeking to make further remarks about the implications of this election both for the country and for the party that I lead and for my position in the Liberal Democrats when I make remarks to my colleagues in the Liberal Democrats later this morning when I return to West Minister". - Nick Clegg

My consistent view for the past 2 months on the basis of detailed analysis of the Sheffield Hallam constituency has been that Nick Clegg would win his seat as excerpted below:

29 Apr 2015 - Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats

However, the truth that the Lib-Dems well understand is that the opinion polls are WRONG, and have been wrong for some time as I have written of for the past 2 months that rather than Nick Clegg losing his Sheffield Hallam seat, instead he is likely to be re-elected with a sizeable majority of at least 5,000 votes.

27 Mar 2015 - Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps

However the trend to date of an highly intelligent and well organised and financed local Lib Dem campaign reinforces my earlier expectations for Nick Clegg to retain his Sheffield Hallam seat. Which given the weak Labour response to date suggests that Labours own private polling has concluded that it is just not worth wasting resources on trying to win. This implies that Nick Clegg could do much better than winning by 2,000 votes as I had originally envisioned a month ago, but instead now looks set to achieve a far more substantial majority of around 5,000 votes, which is contrary to the opinion polls that put the Lib Dems 10% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).

However, the critical problem that Labour faces and which is not being factored into the opinion polls is that at the constituency level, Labour is actually NOT in a battle against the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives as I explained at length in constituency level video analysis of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, an election battle against the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard who apparently leads in the polls by 2%.

Which means that whilst the following may be the perception of the mainstream media and most political pundits for Sheffield Hallam and many other Labour target seats -

Instead the reality following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -

Therefore Labour is NOT fighting election battles against the Lib-Dems or the Conservatives but rather they are effectively battling against the Coalition party. Which means that in this general election we will witness tactical voting on a far greater scale amongst Lib-Dems and Conservatives than we saw at the 2010 general election, the consequences of which will mean that both the Lib Dems and Conservatives will retain many more seats than the opinion polls suggest i.e. that Nick Clegg rather than being at risk of losing his seat, in reality will win with a sizable majority of at least 5000 votes as Conservative voters will in great numbers vote for the Lib-Dems in those seats where the Conservatives are not the main competitor so as to increase the probability for the continuation of the coalition government.

So for the Lib-dems the real election battleground will be where the Conservatives are the main competitor as the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems. Whilst at the same time trying to ensure the Lib-dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP nightmare.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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