Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Nick Clegg Lib Dem Leader Wins Sheffield Hallam Surviving Lib Dem Bloodbath - Opinion Polls Wrong

ElectionOracle / Sheffield May 08, 2015 - 05:03 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Whilst the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold across the UK (at 4.55am) that the BBC forecasts could result with a catastrophic loss of 47 seats to just 10. Instead, the Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg has managed to hold onto his affluent Sheffield Hallam seat on a majority of 2,353 votes despite the exit poll, and opinion polls turning out to be wrong.


Nick Clegg Lib Dem 22,215
Oliver Coppard Labour 19,862
Ian Walker Conservative 7,544
Joe Jenkins UKIP 3,575

 

Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam Opinion Polls

Party 2010 28th March 2015 29th April 2015
Liberal Democrat 53% 34% 36%
Labour 16% 36% 37%
Conservative 23% 16% 15%
UKIP 2% 7% 7%
Green 2% 6% 4%
English Democrats 1% 1% 1%

 

However, if the Lib Dem blood bath continues to unfold as forecast to anywhere near the 10 seat forecast total as illustrated by the loss of Vince Cables and Simon Hughes seats then it is highly likely that Nick Clegg won't remain the Lib Dem leader for long as just indicated in his acceptance speech, especially if the Conservatives don't need the decimated Lib-Dems to achieve a majority which could still happen given the failure of the Exit Poll forecasts to budge an inch in the Lib Dem or Labours direction. If any thing the results are proving more favourable to the Conservatives.

Nick Clegg About to Resign?

"Turning to the national picture, it is now painfully clear that this has been a cruel and punishing night for the Liberal Democrats. The election has profound implications for the country and of course has profound implications for the Liberal Democrats and I will be seeking to make further remarks about the implications of this election both for the country and for the party that I lead and for my position in the Liberal Democrats when I make remarks to my colleagues in the Liberal Democrats later this morning when I return to West Minister". - Nick Clegg

My consistent view for the past 2 months on the basis of detailed analysis of the Sheffield Hallam constituency has been that Nick Clegg would win his seat as excerpted below:

29 Apr 2015 - Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats

However, the truth that the Lib-Dems well understand is that the opinion polls are WRONG, and have been wrong for some time as I have written of for the past 2 months that rather than Nick Clegg losing his Sheffield Hallam seat, instead he is likely to be re-elected with a sizeable majority of at least 5,000 votes.

27 Mar 2015 - Sheffield Hallam Election Battle 2015 - Lib Dems Go to War Whilst Labour Sleeps

However the trend to date of an highly intelligent and well organised and financed local Lib Dem campaign reinforces my earlier expectations for Nick Clegg to retain his Sheffield Hallam seat. Which given the weak Labour response to date suggests that Labours own private polling has concluded that it is just not worth wasting resources on trying to win. This implies that Nick Clegg could do much better than winning by 2,000 votes as I had originally envisioned a month ago, but instead now looks set to achieve a far more substantial majority of around 5,000 votes, which is contrary to the opinion polls that put the Lib Dems 10% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam (Survation - LAB 33%, LD 23%, CON 22%, GREEN 12%, UKIP 9%).

However, the critical problem that Labour faces and which is not being factored into the opinion polls is that at the constituency level, Labour is actually NOT in a battle against the Liberal Democrats or the Conservatives as I explained at length in constituency level video analysis of Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat, an election battle against the Labour candidate Oliver Coppard who apparently leads in the polls by 2%.

Which means that whilst the following may be the perception of the mainstream media and most political pundits for Sheffield Hallam and many other Labour target seats -

Instead the reality following 5 years of coalition government is one of this -

Therefore Labour is NOT fighting election battles against the Lib-Dems or the Conservatives but rather they are effectively battling against the Coalition party. Which means that in this general election we will witness tactical voting on a far greater scale amongst Lib-Dems and Conservatives than we saw at the 2010 general election, the consequences of which will mean that both the Lib Dems and Conservatives will retain many more seats than the opinion polls suggest i.e. that Nick Clegg rather than being at risk of losing his seat, in reality will win with a sizable majority of at least 5000 votes as Conservative voters will in great numbers vote for the Lib-Dems in those seats where the Conservatives are not the main competitor so as to increase the probability for the continuation of the coalition government.

So for the Lib-dems the real election battleground will be where the Conservatives are the main competitor as the Tories are seeking to take at least 15 seats from the Lib Dems. Whilst at the same time trying to ensure the Lib-dems retain as many seats as possible where Labour is second, and conversely Lib Dem voters whilst to a lesser extent are also likely to vote for the Tory candidate where Labour is opposing, especially as the prospects of a Labour- SNP outcome sends shivers down the spines of many English Labour and Lib-Dem voters. This will also prompt many potential UKIP voters to vote Conservative or Lib Dem rather than risk a Labour - SNP nightmare.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules