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Why 95% of Traders Fail

UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 08, 2015 - 05:05 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright small majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.


Opinion pollster's seats forecasts averaged to:

  • Conservatives : 276
  • Labour : 271
  • SNP : 53
  • Lib Dems : 25
  • DUP 8

Which were forecasting an extreme hung parliament -

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 301 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 309 - FAIL

Labour + Lib-Dems = 296 - FAIL

Labour + Lib-Dems + Plaid Cymru + Greens = 303 - FAIL

Thus according to the opinion polls the only workable majority would have been one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP (53) to total 323.

UK House Prices Forecast the UK General Election 2015

My original analysis of December 2013 as later featured in the UK Housing Market ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD) converted the forecast UK house prices trend trajectory into expectations for an outright Conservative election victory where the only thing to do was to track the actual house prices against the forecast trend trajectory to fine tune the expected result on approach to the May 7th election day.

30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.

The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.

In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.

The following video of 6th January 2014 (16 months ago) further illustrates my house prices based UK general election forecast:

UK General Election Forecast 2015

My most recent update of 1st of May confirmed my UK house prices based expectations for an outright Conservative election victory on a small single digits majority -

01 May 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win?

The updated election seats trend graph suggests that the Conservatives are on target towards achieving a single digits outright majority which is completely contrary to every opinion poll published this year. Which if it materialises then I am sure for Election 2020 everyone will be staring at the house prices indices rather than the opinion polls. Though as is usually the case that when the consensus becomes focused on an particular indicator then it usually stops working.

With the accompanying video published on 3rd of May that also confirmed that UK house prices were forecasting a single digit outright Conservative election victory, which was contrary to every opinion poll and political pundit:

Therefore my analysis of UK house prices converted into seats by far proved to be the most accurate forecaster for the UK general election 2015 outcome, and since I have a good idea of how house prices will perform over the next 5 years I can tell you with some confidence that the Conservatives are also likely to win the 2020 general election! Though, in the interests of accuracy do come back to my detailed analysis to conclude in a seats forecast that I will probably publish a year or so before the next general election.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50599.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

sixpack
09 May 15, 00:10
voter increases lab/con

I read that both parties increased their number of votes in England/Wales from 2010:

Labour 700,000 (1.7%).

Tories 500,000 (0.7%).

Not bad for Milliband but Cameron has 100 seats over him - Cameron has become Tony Blair!!!!

However the seat change was largely negative for labour if not by a huge amount, and the loss in Scotland of course could never get made up by seats in England aswell as moving ahead of the tories.

The big question now is as long as the SNP dominates Scotland then how is labour ever going to get back in to power given their 100 seat deficit and no Scottish seats to add to their total?

They will first have to move back to being a centre right party as under Blair and probably go even further to attract enough of middle England to overcome the Tories.

It's a huge question for Labour but also for Scotland who are celebrating their new found mp bloc in Westminster even though it effectively has ZERO IMPACT against a Tory majority that can effectively ignore it. Of course they will work on devo max but that was always going to happen.

How long will the Scots remain deluded about the value of a SNP bloc in Westminster until they realise that their best bet for getting rid of the Tories is to be part of a labour vote which doesn't scare off English voters the way SNP domination made English voters move away from Labour to Tory.

English voters were afraid of SNP forcing labour further to the left in a pseudo coalition, and handed Cameron a majority because of it.

SNP voters are publicly saying Westminster parties are now redundant in Scotland but will they be happy having a Tory govt in Westminster or will they eventually realise they have to get rid of them and the only way is to vote labour.

These are dark days for labour. It's simply not clear how they can ever get back into power until the Scots sacrifice the SNP and go back to voting labour. If they try to suggest an SNP / Labour coalition, English voters will simply move away from Labour and vote Tory.

Catch 22 for Labour but they cannot lean left any longer as I don't see them picking up the UKIP vote anytime soon. Should they look there?


Nadeem_Walayat
09 May 15, 01:18
LibDem collapse

Hi

Thats because the LibDem vote collapsed, a large chunk of which went to Labour and Conservatives as they hoovered up LibDem seats.

The problem I see with Scotland is that labour can never get back in power again because they cannot win against the nationalists instead there needs to be a NEW party in Scotland so that it can better battle against the Nationalists which means a Unionist party.

Best

NW


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