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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Pollsters Launch Inquiry into Worthless Wrong UK Election 2015 Opinion Polls

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 12, 2015 - 10:13 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Survation, YouGov, Populous, ICM, Ipsos Mori, ComRes, Ashcroft and the rest regurgitated at length in the mainstream press ALL got their opinion polling for the UK general election badly wrong, not just a little wrong but to such an extent that they were forecasting the exact opposite in terms of which major party could go on to form the next government as illustrated by the most popular opinion polls to seats forecasting sites:


Opinion pollster's seats forecasts averaged to:

  • Conservatives : 276
  • Labour : 271
  • SNP : 53
  • Lib Dems : 25
  • DUP 8

Which were forecasting an extreme hung parliament -

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 301 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 309 - FAIL

Labour + Lib-Dems = 296 - FAIL

Labour + Lib-Dems + Plaid Cymru + Greens = 303 - FAIL

Thus according to the opinion polls the only workable majority would have been one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP (53) to total 323.

The following trend graph further illustrates that the opinion pollsters proved to be CONSISTENTLY WRONG for the WHOLE PERIOD I tracked, and that they even on average trended in favour of the Labour party as time went on, so the more they polled the LESS accurate they became.

Opinion Polls Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

Even the so called accurate BBC Exit Poll failed to imply a Conservative election win was certain as it left the door open for Labour to form the next government with the SNP and the Lib Dems.

To be blunt the opinion polls were total BS, and the inquiry launched shortly after the results to be conducted by clueless ivory tower academics into why they got it wrong will also be total BS because all I am hearing from the opinion pollsters are excuses so as to put the blame for being WRONG elsewhere, such as:

a. That there was a late swing towards the Conservatives.

b. That they secretly really expected that the Conservatives to win but for whatever reason did not think about publishing until well AFTER the election results were out .

c. Blaming the shy tories for a late swing.

If your BS alarm is not sounding at full blast then it should because what the pollsters are stating makes it clear that the inquiry will also be total BS!

Even BBC Newsnight appears to have fallen for Pollster BS (11th May 2015), with their vomit inducing story that Labour pollsters are crawling out of the wood work to proclaim that they knew Labour was badly behind the Conservatives but held off making their findings public until well AFTER the final election result. There is no evidence for this whatsoever as is apparent by the election campaigns fought by both Labour and Conservative that implied a tight election race and resulting shock and surprise at the result which was CONTRARY to their polling! This illustrates that opinion pollsters are nothing more than bullshit artists whose primary objective is to SELL their services to the gullible mainstream media.

What we are going to increasingly see is a concerted effort to re-write history that paints a picture that is the exact OPPOSITE to the truth so that by the time of the next big election the general public has forgotten that the opinion polls are BS, which is NOT going to happen if I have anything to do with it!

Why did the Opinion Polls get it so badly wrong?

I know why the pollsters got their polling badly wrong which I will cover at length in my next in-depth analysis, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in your email in box.

But in the meantime I will give you what I have been stating for several months as to why the opinion polls will turn out to be wrong -

01 May 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win?

Therefore come May 8th virtually all pollsters will have egg on their faces as the mainstream media will have flushed untold millions down the drain on commissioning opinion polls that turned out to be WRONG just as the polls were wrong in the run up to the Scottish referendum that was never a 50/50 proposition which at the time I concluded was mainly so as to allow pollsters to sell opinion polls and the mainstream press to sell copy and so it is the case with today's election campaign.

UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over!

There is another reason as well for why the polls were so close and that is one of SALES, the polling industry SELLING a tight election so that the gullible mainstream press would buy their polling services. Therefore painting a picture of a tight race by manipulating the data will have turned out to be a huge money spinner for the polling agencies.

My article concluded in the most probable forecast for the outcome of the result would be for at least show a 10% gap between NO and YES, and definitely not reflective of the mass hysteria.

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

For what actually did prove accurate in forecasting the outcome of the UK general election 2015 I turn to my analysis of December 2013 that is based on house prices rather than opinion polls, and as featured in the UK Housing Market ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD) that converted the UK house prices forecast trend trajectory into expectations for an outright Conservative election victory where the only thing to track was actual house prices data against the forecast trend trajectory so as to fine tune the expected result on approach to the May 7th election day.

30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.

The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.

In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.

The following video of 6th January 2014 (16 months ago) further illustrates my house prices based UK general election forecast:

UK General Election Forecast 2015

My most recent update of 1st of May confirmed my UK house prices based expectations for an outright Conservative election victory on a small single digits majority -

01 May 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win?

The updated election seats trend graph suggests that the Conservatives are on target towards achieving a single digits outright majority which is completely contrary to every opinion poll published this year. Which if it materialises then I am sure for Election 2020 everyone will be staring at the house prices indices rather than the opinion polls. Though as is usually the case that when the consensus becomes focused on an particular indicator then it usually stops working.

With the accompanying video published on 3rd of May that also confirmed that UK house prices were forecasting a single digit outright Conservative election victory, which was contrary to every opinion poll and political pundit:

Therefore my analysis of UK house prices converted into seats by far proved to be the most accurate forecaster for the UK general election 2015 outcome, and since I have a good idea of how house prices will perform over the next 5 years I can tell you with some confidence that the Conservatives are also likely to win the 2020 general election! Though, in the interests of accuracy do come back to my detailed analysis to conclude in a seats forecast that I will probably publish a year or so before the next general election.

Again, to find out WHY the opinion polls got it so badly wrong then ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50639.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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