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UK Immigration Crisis Hits New Extreme of 336k Net Migration, up 32% on 2014

Politics / Immigration Nov 27, 2015 - 04:52 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

Britains unrelenting immigration crisis just keeps getting worse with each ONS data release as the latest record busting net migration figure of 336,000 in the year to June 2015 illustrates, an increase in the rate migration of 32% on 2014. Which literally translates into a DAILY flood of near 1000 people turning up on Britain's shores and demanding housing, education and school places, jobs with benefits such as tax credits, health & social services that have been buckling, breaking and ultimately freezing as the social housing has in many cities already for several years in the wake of a 15 year long trend of out of control immigration.


Therefore Britain's Immigration crisis is fast trending towards becoming a catastrophe as the latest immigration statistics once more bring home the stark reality that the UK really has no control over its borders as 5 years of Conservative government rhetoric of controlling immigration have yet again been revealed to be a case of "the emperor has no clothes", where rather than annual net migration of in the tens of thousands as David Cameron promised at the start of his Premiership in 2010, instead net migration has once more soared above the previous record high of 330,000 announced in October, to now stand at 336,000.

The Conservative governments failures to control immigration for the past 5 years is just a continuation of the Labour immigration catastrophe that set in motion a 15 year long immigration mega-trend for importation of over 8 million people (total immigration) where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour (90% on benefits such as tax credits).

When David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration by 2015 to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration has continued to SOAR each year to levels far higher level than 2010 to now stand at 336,000 for the year ending June 2015, a rise of 30% on the previous year.

"Overall, net immigration would be kept in the tens of thousands, rather than the current rate of hundreds of thousands”. - David Cameron 2010

The bottom line is that the UK government has no control over Britain's borders which means that the immigration crisis is ACCELERATING and is EXPONENTIAL where the Conservative Government has failed to do anything to control what remains out of control immigration. And remember that the official statistics do not include illegal immigration totaling at least 1 million.

The immigration statistics break down into the following facts:

Total immigration Year to June 2015 636k
Total emigration Year to March 2015 300k
Net immigration Year to March 2015 336k
   
Total Immigration since 2004 6.3 million
Total Emigration since 2004 3.8 million
Net Immigration since 2004 2.5 million
   

 

Key points that stand out from the ONS data release is the doubling in Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants over the preceding year, something that is being felt hard in cities right across the UK such as Sheffield that is facing a huge crisis in housing, school places and social cohesion that is consuming local council budgets like a black hole to deal with the consequences of.

Another key point that the mainstream press has apparently missed is that the net figures mask the reality of what the gross immigration figure of 636,000 implies, which effectively means that the impact of immigration is DOUBLE that which the headline figure of 336k suggests i.e. in terms of social cohesion and housing and services for those pockets of the UK most effected by immigration such as the South East and the inner cities.

Why People are Migrating to the UK

Contrary to press stories of civil wars, most of the migration (90%) into the UK is economic, including to study, many of whom turn out to be bogus students who are instead here to work illegally and permanent settlement.

Furthermore what's hidden in the small print is the fact that EU nationals took up 655,000 National Insurance numbers over the 12 months, which illustrates that the bulk, perhaps 85% of all new jobs created are going to migrant workers, most of whom will be claiming in work benefits such as tax credits.

Immigration Crisis Fast Becoming a Catastrophe

Britain, Europe are not just dealing with the likes of the Syrian civil war that has produced over 4 million refugees, most of whom are determined to find their way to the likes of Germany and Britain, but also the fact Africa continues to undergo a population explosion, where the continents population looks set to DOUBLE once more over the next 30 years from 1.1 billion to 2.2 billion that will result in a migration exodus that will be exponentially greater than that which is taking place today, which implies an trend for ever increasing number of economic migrants from Africa alone, let alone the continuing increasing flows from a more preposterous Asia (China) and elsewhere who can afford to pay people smugglers for transportation to a new life in the UK as I have covered in depth in the following video analysis -

Therefore, whilst today the mainstream broadcast press crisis coverage of immigration is focused on the camps of tens of thousands of migrants on Europe's southern borders and even some 5,000 near the port of Calais. However Britain should prepare itself for what the trend implies looks inevitable that within the next few years already buckling and highly stressed state services will break under the weight of numbers in response to which the government will be forced to introduce unprecedented measures such as cordoning off pockets of Southern England into self contained migrant camps of first in the tens of thousands and ultimately numbering in the hundreds of thousands in an attempt to contain the consequences of the immigration catastrophe that is the implied as a consequence of 10 million immigrants entering the UK (net 5 million) over the next 10 years that will be in addition to natural population growth of at approx 4 million.

In fact 10 years from now the UK will likely have whole villages and even towns cordoned off as permanent migrant camps in an attempt to contain the catastrophe.

UK Population Growth Forecast

My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated below:

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030)

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

The updated UK population graph shows an actual trend trajectory as per the most recent ONS population data into Mid 2014 of 64.6 million, which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration and high birth rate that in total would translate into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham.

This has huge implications for Britain in terms of housing, services, wages, education, welfare and social cohesion that will make the crisis of the past decade look like a picnic. For in depth analysis see 15 Apr 2015 - UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015, and the following video -

Out of control immigration ensures that the UK house prices bull market looks set to continue for at least another decade!

The bottom line is that it is pointless for the likes of George Osborne announcement to build 400,000 affordable homes over the next 5 years, because it does not matter how many new homes built, 400k, 500k, even 1 million will make no difference to Britain's housing crisis for the simple fact that Britain has an immigration crisis as continuing out of control immigration ensures new demand will always far outstrip new supply. So the real solution for getting to grips with Britain's housing crisis IS TO CONTROL IMMIGRATION!

For the impact on the UK EU referendum see my earlier article - 12 Nov 2015 - UK BrExit Referendum as European Union Faces Migration Catastrophe

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for ongoing in-depth analysis and concluding detailed trend forecasts that include the following planned newsletters -

  • London House Prices Bubble
  • US House Prices Forecast 2016
  • US Dollar Trend Forecast
  • Stock Market 2016
  • Islam 3.0

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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