UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My latest analysis in a series aimed at arriving at a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices covers population growth which is one of the key primary drivers for UK house prices which since the Labour government of 1997 natural population growth net of births and deaths has been vastly supplemented by what has amounted to out of control immigration courtesy of Britain's membership of the European Union and the former Labour governments objective for the importation of millions of potential Labour voters from mostly new member states from across an impoverished eastern europe that resulted in near 5 million economic migrants settling in the UK by 2016, mostly in what were already over crowded British cities, thus putting severe pressure on services and infrastructure and the whole housing market as the likes of the rental sector soared with 1 million new buy to let landlords entering the market buying 4 million properties, forcing up house prices across the board where rents in large part are being funded by tax payers in the form of the soaring housing benefits bill.

UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030

My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:

2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

One of the primary drivers for population growth an for triggering the EU Referendum is immigration, specifically EU immigration that many had concluded was out of control as membership of the European Union translates into the free movement of workers which has prevented the UK from controlling its borders for approaching 20 years now and has seen the UK buffeted by waves economic migrant flows from mostly Eastern Europe each year. All adding to those that came before with total immigration from the EU since 2000 having passed the 5 million mark by 2016. All whilst both Labour and then the Conservative governments promises to bring immigration under control having amounted to nothing more than empty promises, as parliament clearly has NO control over EU migration, which thus has continued well beyond the targets of tens of thousands per year.

And thus the people of Britain on the 23rd of June 2016 chose to take back control of Britain's borders by voting to LEAVE the European Union which followed over a decade of EU migration putting added pressure each year on housing, jobs and social services such as schools, NHS and the benefits system, virtually all of which were at critical breaking points.

Therefore this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at immigration to determine what transpired, and where immigration is likely to trend over the coming years and its impact on all aspects of british life including on the housing market.

To best understand whether Britain actually has experienced an immigration crisis one needs to look at what the levels of immigration were BEFORE Tony Blair's Labour government came into power in 1997, soon opening up Britains' borders to migration from across eastern europe under the assumption that newly arrived migrants would tend to be more likely to vote Labour, the traditional political party for immigrants and thus seek to permanently improve the demographics in favour of the Labour party's electoral prospects.

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Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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