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UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Sep 13, 2019 - 08:51 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

This is the current state of the parties after Boris Johnson ejected 21 MP's from the Tory party last week.


Conservative
289
Labour
247
Independent
35
Scottish National Party
35
Liberal Democrat
16
Democratic Unionist Party
10
Sinn Féin
7
The Independent Group for Change
5
Plaid Cymru
4
Green Party
1

 

Whilst it is a bit early to conclude in a definitive election forecast, nevertheless as highlighted earlier, I am expecting the Tories to GAIN seats at the next election under BJ, primarily against Labour and perhaps lose a few seats in strong remainer constituencies to the Lib Dems and SNP for a net gain of about 25 seats on the 2017 result which would deliver the Tories a working majority of about 20 seats to stand on around 335 MP's (preliminary forecast).

Betfair Betting Market Odds

The current betfair market price favours an No overall majority outcome trading on 1.6. Whilst the price for a Tory Majority is 3.05 which would translate into a profit of £205 for every £100 bet.

Given the level of political uncertainty, i.e. that BJ could be replaced! Then I would have preferred a little better pricing than currently on offer. Nevertheless it may be worth a nibble now and hope that Westminister Extreme Chaos delivers better odds over the coming weeks, though looking at the dogs dinner that is the Labour party then that hoped for better pricing may not materialise.

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: https://www.patreon.com/posts/british-pound-vs-29840414

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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