Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, March 04, 2016
Short Squeeze in Treasuries? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Day 43 came and went with a small throw-over of the trendline at the close. This final thrust made 21 waves (an impulse) from 1931.88 to today’s close, so I don’t see how they can add any more waves to it.
The normal amount of time in a counter-trend rally is 21 days in a bear market, and often much shorter. Today is day 21 from the February 11 low, so it appears to have fulfilled the time requirement. One of my Swing Models suggested February 26 would give us the turn, but it is now 6 calendar days overdue. Since tomorrow is 4.3 market days from my projected “swing high,” I had originally suggested that tomorrow would be the first low of the decline. I will eat crow over that call.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 01, 2016
US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
U.S. Bond Market Not Destined to Crash in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sol_Palha
Always do what you are afraid to do. Ralph Waldo Emerson
The trend in bonds was bullish for a long time, and one can see how bonds ran up during that time frame. Currently, its neutral and that also has to be viewed through a bullish lens as it should have turned negative given the run-up. Bonds need to close on a weekly basis above 160.00 relatively soon. In fact, there is a good chance that if the next run up fails to take out the August highs of 161-23, bonds will be paving the way for a move down to the 152.00 ranges and then 147-148 ranges. Traders willing to take on a bit of a risk could consider opening long positions at both levels. Some funds could be deployed at 152 or better and some at 148 or better. Market Update, Nov 1st, 2015.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Why Isn’t This Incredibly Bearish Bond Market Development Making the News? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By E.B. Tucker
Editor’s Note: This is one of the most important essays you’ll read all year. In this special edition of the Casey Daily Dispatch, E.B. Tucker shares an urgent warning you’re unlikely to hear anywhere else.
----------
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
10-year US Treasury Note / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The rate on the 10-year US Treasury Note (ticker symbol TNX) had its best week since June last week with a gain of 8.46% to close at 23.33. It even printed an engulfing bullish candlestick on Friday.
Most of the week’s gain came on Friday’s strong non-farm payroll report. The breakout from the June bear trendline would seem to open the door for a return to the June high near 24.75 but…
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 02, 2015
US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
By Jared Dillian
This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.
I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Rubino
One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Investment_U
Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.
We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
A Street Car Named U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
sIn the 1947 Tennessee Williams play "A Streetcar Named Desire" as she is being carted off to the mental institution Blanche Dubois utters these famous words ... "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."
And like Ms. Dubois, the United States has also come to depend on the kindness of strangers to fund a massive $18.3 trillion in debt.
But that kindness the US Treasury has come to depend upon may be waning. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell in May for a second straight month. The Treasury Department reported total holdings were down 0.1% in May to $6.13 trillion. This comes after an even bigger 0.6% decline in April.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Greenspan Warns Be Afraid of U.S. Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the U.S. economy, bond market and Fed policy.
On how afraid we should be of bubbles, Greenspan said: "Very much so. I think we have a pending bond market bubble. If we merely substitute the structure of equity prices and we have the price of bonds and instead of expected equity return we do have expected interest rate return. That price earnings ratio is an extraordinarily unstable position."
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 10, 2015
U.S. Dollar QE Death Sentence, Us Treasury Bond Black Hole / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Rather than stimulus, the USFed's Quantitative Easing is a death sentence for the USDollar. It might provide an ongoing backdoor bailout opportunity for Wall Street banks, and even a window for China to switch from long dated to short dated USTreasurys, but QE is death sentence. It guarantees that the USDollar will be removed from the global premises and placed in the dustbin of history. Foreign banking systems are largely devoted to USTBonds as the foundation for their entire reserves system. The African type of hyper monetary inflation blessed as good and fine stimulus is a sentinel signal by the US Federal Reserve itself, given to the Eastern producing nations who save in the $billions. They will start a caravan to exit the USDollar in their banking systems. They have great challenges in doing so, and must follow a prescribed path. That path is the Chinese RMB as an intermediary device, a transition tool. The goal is the return of the Gold Trade Standard, which will assure the return to the Gold Currency Standard and the Gold Banking Standard. The absent solution to the chronic global financial crisis has been the refusal to put Gold at the apex. Instead, the big banks have become zombies, the economies have become sclerotic, the financial structure have been control rooms, the bond platforms have been fracturing, while the USGovt has relied upon bond fraud, gold thefts, the printing press, and predatory wars to defend the King Dollar regime. It is due for the funeral pyre.
Friday, July 24, 2015
A Bond Market Crisis Is Coming... Here's What to Do / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes:
Wall Street is already sending warning signals about the next financial cataclysm. Analysts are using phrases like "liquidity crunch" and "crisis situation."
It could happen next week... or next month...
Predicting exactly how a crisis will happen is difficult. Predicting exactly when is impossible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 24, 2015
Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6% in 1990 to 0% today. Therefore, Lacy says, “(I)t was the backdrop of shifting inflationary circumstances that once again determined the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields.”
Saturday, June 20, 2015
The Final Phase Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
There has been quite a bit of chatter in recent times about the bond bubble bursting. So, have we seen the final high in bond prices or final low in interest rates? No, I don’t believe so but we are indeed approaching the final phase of this bond bubble.
Let’s try to nail down the end of this bull market in bond prices and bear market in bond yields or interest rates by analysing in detail the charts of the 30yr US T-Bond prices and yields. We’ll begin with the big picture yearly chart of bond prices.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
The Simplest Way to View the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: It has been a wild time for fixed-income investments over the last couple years...
Interest rates are historically low in the U.S. In Europe, rates have spent time in negative territory... meaning investors were willing to take a guaranteed loss.
It can be hard to get a handle on what's happening today in the bond market... never mind where things may be headed tomorrow.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 19, 2015
US. Bonds and Banks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alasdair_Macleod
This year has seen some big losses develop in the bond markets, though prices have stabilised in recent days. The chart above is of the yield on the lowest investment risk in ten year maturities. Most other 10-year bonds have seen even sharper rises in yield (i.e. greater price falls). This matters because the banking system is heavily invested in sovereign bonds, not only in the short end of the market where it traditionally invests its liquidity, but also in longer maturities between five and ten years. Furthermore, central banks have become exposed to the same risk through their bond purchases with implications for currency stability, but that is a separate issue.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Bond Bubble - The Fed is Now Officially in VERY Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:
The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.
The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 15, 2015
Bond Market Bombshell - Deflation Rules! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Clive_Maund
DEFLATION RULES! - because periodic recessions, necessary to rebalance the economy after periods of growth, cannot be put off forever by the short-term expedient of printing money. The result of such corrupt and evasive practices is that the deflationary forces build up to catastrophic and overwhelming proportions leading to economic collapse and depression. This is the point that we have arrived at now. Why can't governments keep the game going indefinitely by printing more and more money? - because the debt grows and grows until it becomes apparent even to dull-witted bond / Treasury holders that they are never going to get their money back, so they start selling and the selling snowballs into an avalanche, driving interest rates through the roof. Bond and stockmarkets crash and the economy sinks into a dangerously deep depression, all because governments stubbornly refused to do the right thing all along, and interfered with and obstructed normal market forces, culminating in their idiotic and ruinous QE, ZIRP and now even NIRP.
Friday, June 05, 2015
US Jobs Report Gives Green Light for a Interest Rate Hike? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
TNX is back in the news this morning with a huge spike in yields. The monthly Jobs Report came out much better than expected. Never mind that the vast bulk of those jobs was fictitious, AKA the CES Birth/Death Model. This gives the Fed the green light to hike rates, er…to follow what the market is already doing with the rates. This is an awfully tight corner for the Fed to be in.
Read full article... Read full article...