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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Determining the Outlook for Gold Mining Stock / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold miners completed the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern – it’s now a fact. And many analysts would have one believe that it’s the only fact that matters right now or that it’s of major importance. But just like focusing on one tree can make one miss the entire forest behind it, the above could make the entire precious metals outlook appear different than it really is. There are multiple factors in place and we will not cover all of them in this essay, but even in case of the mining stocks, there are many factors that gold promoters and those who put a lot of weight in the inverse H&S pattern in mining stocks, are usually not mentioning in their analyses. We’ll discuss some of those factors below.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Stock Markets Last Cheap Sector - Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The lofty stock markets suffered a sharp selloff this week that may prove a major inflection point.  There was one lone sector that bucked the heavy selling to surge in the carnage, the gold miners’ stocks.  They are the last cheap sector in these bubble-valued stock markets, long overlooked and neglected.  Wildly undervalued today, the gold stocks have great potential to soar dramatically even if stock markets keep weakening.

Just several weeks ago, the US stock markets hit new all-time record highs stoking universal euphoria.  The flagship S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) closed at 2930.8 in late September, extending its monstrous bull to 333.2% over 9.5 years.  That made for the 2nd-largest and 1st-longest in US stock-market history!  It also left these markets dangerously overvalued, literally trading at bubble valuations.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Gold GDX Is Being Torn Apart / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Rising interest rates are good for metals. Rising interest rates are bad for metals. We have heard the arguments from both sides. In fact, I think it is no different when people claim inflation is good for gold relative to those who believe deflation is good for gold.

Personally, I don’t think either side is correct, as we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly correct. That means we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly wrong. So, what does that tell you?

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Frank_Holmes

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Coming up we’ve got a wonderful interview with Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Frank talks about some key developments in the gold community and why he believes a key merger in the gold mining industry could be a good indicator of a market bottom. He also shares his thoughts about Vanguard’s recent decision that leaves many gold investors hung out to dry. This is a must-hear interview with Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets struggled this week against the forces of rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Where have we heard that before? Despite these headwinds, gold is holding up pretty well as it trades around the $1,200 level in a narrow range where it’s been locked in for the past month.

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Commodities

Monday, October 08, 2018

Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Despite having a rough summer, with a number of factors pushing gold below $1,200 an ounce (the high dollar, US economic growth, interest rate hikes, booming stock markets), the precious metal appears to be back in favor, with December gold futures closing Tuesday’s trading at $1,207 an ounce - a two-week high. In 10 minutes, Bloomberg reported, December gold contracts equal to 1.57 million ounces changed hands on the Comex in New York - almost 12 times the 100-day average volume at that time of day. The catalyst was fresh safe-haven demand owing to political uncertainty in Italy. A government official reportedly said Italy would be better off with its own currency, adding to doubts about the country’s fiscal situation. The EU has to pass Italy’s budget and many think it won’t cut the mustard.

“An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences. And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Gold Stocks Recovering / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The battered gold miners’ stocks are finally starting to recover after a rough few months.  Their prices slid with gold in July, plummeted in a brutal forced capitulation in August, and then dropped again in an echo capitulation into mid-September.  That left them at fundamentally-absurd price levels wildly disconnected from their actual profitability, leaving this sector with big mean-reversion upside ahead as it bounces back.

The leading gold-stock investment vehicle and increasingly benchmark is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  As of this week it still had $8.5b of net assets even at today’s super-depressed gold-stock prices.  That dwarfs everything else in the 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF space, running 40.5x bigger than its next largest competitor!  So GDX is the dominant proxy for the fortunes of the gold miners’ stocks.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Gold Miners Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern? Really? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold rallied, silver rallied, and mining stocks rallied. That’s how one can summarize yesterday’s session. The volume was huge, so it appears that a major upswing has just begun. But is this really the case? As always, just because things look encouraging and the emotions are high, it doesn’t mean that anything changed. One needs to step back from the day-to-day price and volume changes and look at the factors that are in place right now without any biases. No hopes, no “feelings toward the market”, and no worries about missing the boat. Just facts and logic. Let’s start with gold (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Monday, September 24, 2018

Gold and Miners are About to Explode Upward / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After many weeks of pricing pressure as the US Dollar extended a rally delivering nearly unending devaluation pricing in most commodities, Gold is setting up for a big upside rally and is likely to extend beyond $1240 in this initial run higher. We believe the immediate bottom has formed in Gold and we believe the upside move will consist of two unique legs higher. The first leg is likely to run to near $1240~1250 and end near the middle of November 2018. The second leg of this move will likely run to near $1310 and end near May 2019.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Gold Stocks Forced Capitulation / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks suffered a rare capitulation selloff over the past month or so.  Selling cascaded to extremes as stop losses were sequentially triggered, battering this contrarian sector to exceedingly-low levels.  While very challenging psychologically, capitulations are super-bullish.  They rapidly exhaust all near-term selling potential, leaving gold stocks wildly oversold and undervalued which births major new uplegs.

Capitulations are quite rare which makes them inherently unpredictable.  The vast majority of selloffs end normally well before they snowball into capitulation-grade plummets.  But very seldomly heavy selling just continues to intensify rather than abate like usual.  The word capitulation means “the act of surrendering or giving up”.  That’s exactly what happens in these extraordinary selling events, traders stampede for the exits.

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Commodities

Friday, September 07, 2018

Gold Miners Setting Up for Big Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The recent rally attempt of the gold stocks fizzled out as the December 2016 lows failed to hold. Now the miners are making new lows. As they pine for the next support they figure to be even more oversold as more bulls throw in the towel. These are the conditions needed to engender a significant counter-trend rebound. While we aren’t predicting it yet, look for a bullish reversal to begin sometime in the next few weeks.

The gold stocks have lost their December 2016 support but strong support is not too far away. The breakdown in GDX below $21 projects to a measured downside target of roughly $16.50. That aligns with the next strong support level on the chart. The breakdown in GDXJ projects down to the $23-$24 area. That is very close to the next strong support level around $24-$25.

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Commodities

Monday, September 03, 2018

Silver Mining Stocks SIL ETF Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The major silver miners’ stocks have been thrashed, pummeled to brutal multi-year lows.  They suffered serious collateral damage as silver plunged on gold’s breakdown, driven by crazy-extreme all-time-record silver-futures short selling.  All this technical carnage left investors reeling, devastating sentiment.  The silver miners’ recently-reported Q2’18 results reveal whether their anomalous plunge was justified fundamentally.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 01, 2018

Silver DSLV 3X Short ETF Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Rambus_Chartology

Today DSLV 3 X short silver etf, is breaking out from a possible bearish falling wedge. I’m going to take an initial position and buy 150 shares at the market at 34.74 with the sell/stop on a daily close below the 50 day ema which is currently at 30.06. ZSL is a 2 X leveraged etf if you don’t want all the leverage. DSLV can be pretty volatile so take small bites. A backtest to the top rail would come into play around the 34.15 area for a slightly lower risk entry point.

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Commodities

Friday, August 24, 2018

Gold Junior Stocks Q2 2018 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The junior gold miners’ stocks have been thrashed in August, plummeting to brutal multi-year lows.  Such carnage naturally left sentiment far more bearish than usual in this forsaken contrarian sector.  But these extremely-battered gold-stock prices certainly aren’t justified fundamentally.  Junior gold miners’ collective results from their just-completed Q2’18 earnings season prove their stock prices need to mean revert way higher.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Is The 50-year Gold Mining Bear Market Coming To An End? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks is in a 50-year bear market when measured in gold. This (very) roughly means that on average, it has been more economical to buy gold rather than to mine it.

Interestingly, South African gold mining production peaked two years after, in 1970, as if to confirm that mining was getting rather uneconomical.

There are a peculiar set of reasons why gold mining was so uneconomical, and this I address in my other publications.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Gold Stocks Crash! Now What? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Last week GDX and GDXJ were down almost 12% at their lows on Thursday. Since then, they’ve recovered but only a tiny fraction of recent losses.

The crash did result in the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition while trading around long-term support at their December 2016 lows. It was the perfect setup for shorts to cover. That combination often results in at least a relief rally.

While a rally is underway, where it goes from here remains to be seen.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 18, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stocks Q2’18 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners’ stocks plummeted in brutal cascading selling this week as stops were run.  That shattered strong multi-year support, devastating sentiment among the handful of contrarians remaining in this forsaken sector.  With fear and despair extreme, it’s critical to take a deep breath and get grounded in the gold miners’ just-reported Q2’18 fundamentals.  They reveal if this surprise anomalous plunge was justified.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index.  GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition.  This week GDX’s net assets are 33.4x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!

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Commodities

Monday, August 13, 2018

Gold Ready to Shine, Stocks Should Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Brad_Gudgeon

In my opinion, GDX and the precious metals look ready to rally nicely in the coming 7-8 weeks.  I have been negative on the PM’s and miners for quite some time now.  Keep in mind that I believe that the coming rally will be counter trend, but substantial enough to make money.  I personally like the 3X ETF NUGT, which I believe could move up over 90% in the coming weeks.  My current target for GDX is around 27.00.

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Commodities

Friday, August 10, 2018

Mixed Results at Major Gold Companies / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Fund manager Adrian Day takes a look at several major gold companies in his portfolio.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE, US$21.18) continues to diversify away from silver with two new streams, a gold and palladium stream on the Stillwater Mine (a long-life mine in the U.S.) and a cobalt stream on Voisey's Bay nickel mine. Both streams are front-loaded; Wheaton will receive 4.5% of the palladium reducing on hurdles to 2.25% and 42% of the cobalt (expected to commence in 2021 after a mine expansion) down to 21% over time. The first has a 6.1% IRR, and second 11% (before tax), reasonably high in the current streaming environment.

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Commodities

Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

On Thursday, the HUI index just broke below the December 2016 lows (in terms of daily closing prices), but it reversed on Friday and closed the week back above this important support. Invalidations are often more important than breakdowns, so did Friday’s action just tell us that we’re going to see a major reversal?

Both: yes and no. Yes, because it was – objectively speaking – a bullish signal. No, because we might have already seen what was likely to take place. There was an intraday rally that ran out of steam and was followed by a move back down before the end of the session. We saw a new sell signal as well. Let’s take a look at the very short-term developments (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Friday, August 03, 2018

Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a psychologically-grating year so far.  They’ve remained trapped in their vexing low-consolidation trading range, disheartening and driving away the great majority of traders.  But that should soon change as this deeply-out-of-favor sector enters its strong season, which begins with a powerful autumn rally starting late summers.  This year’s has exceptional upside potential from such a low base.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

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