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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, July 09, 2021

Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 06, 2021

S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Are We Nearing The Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term.  Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher.  Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher?  Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.

There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500.  First, the Fibonacci correlation to the rally phases that have taken place throughout the bullish price waves (1-3-5) since the 2009 bottom.  We’ll get to that in a minute.  Second, we believe our Gann cycle phase research and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc research suggests the current market rally is very over-extended to the upside.  In other words, we believe this excessive upside price trending is likely to revert, quite strongly, at some point in the near future. 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 05, 2021

Stock Market Projection Reached - Cycles Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX has likely reached the top pf its intermediate phase. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”.  Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.

The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months.  One simply can’t argue with the price range, trend and volatility that we’ve seen throughout all of 2020 and into the first half of 2021.  My team and I expect that volatility to continue, but at a slowly decreasing range into the end of 2021.  We also expect a price rotation/reversion may still happen in 2021 that may prompt an 8% to 12% downside price correction (possibly bigger).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 02, 2021

Why This Stock Market Index May Be Headed for a "Bumpy Ride" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Money losers tend to be high-beta issues"

On Friday, June 25, the Russell indexes underwent their annual rebalancing.

In other words, stocks were moved from the Russell indexes like the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 based on their size.

This event usually coincides with a big jump in trading volume -- like it did on June 25 -- but generally it's an annual occurrence of little note.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 01, 2021

Stock Market Bull Run Ignoring Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even emerging markets are derailed by the strong dollar. While yesterday‘s stock market upswing was a defensive one as the credit markets and tech internals reveal, there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.

With the Fed support intact and fiscal one not retreating either, with inflation expectations not spiking, the current data are disregarded to a degree. Incorrectly in my view as Friday‘s:

(…) PCE deflator ... figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated.

The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent. In this environment, tech is unlikely to be derailed, and value will play catch up.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 28, 2021

Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 25, 2021

Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020.  Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:

(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.

The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Stock Market Correction Starting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection and turned down from 4257

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?

If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.

Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.

My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?

Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at agratianj@gmail.com
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

While some of you think that I dismiss your comments to my articles, I will be honest with you that some comments make me think, whereas some just make me scratch my head.

Last week, I outlined one of the issues that many have with EW, and that is related to the provision of a primary count and an alternative count. And, I addressed that concern as follows:

Again, this is simply based upon a lack of understanding as to how Elliott Wave analysis works. I have addressed this argument many times before, but I think it is worthwhile to address it one more time.

First, one has to ask themselves if any methodology will provide "definitive" guidance in the financial markets? Remember, we deal with a non-linear environment, and need to apply a non-linear methodology to obtain the greatest success within such an environment.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.

One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.

Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom.  The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price.  Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.

I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets.  Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high.  It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 04, 2021

Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The country has largely been divided into two camps. The first camp is full of people who just don’t pay too much attention. They have unshakable faith in Wall Street and government institutions.

The typical investor buys stocks for the long haul. It might be because financial advisors are just as unquestioning, knowing they are rarely criticized for following the herd.

Sadly, mainstream advisors still snicker whenever a client brings up gold – even though the naysayers have been wrong about gold for 20 years.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 04, 2021

US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel.  This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021.  My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors. 

When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend.  As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months.  The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case).  But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.

Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14.  We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate. 

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