Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
OPEC Presents QE4 and Deflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.
Saturday, November 29, 2014
Crude Oil Price's Ups and Downs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
Today’s Outside the Box is special, because I’m about to give you a preview of things to come at Mauldin Economics. For months now I have been saying to my partners that we need to develop a service for the professionals who read me – the financial advisors, portfolio managers, family offices… you know who you are. And I’m excited to tell you that we are very close to making this service a reality. It will be called Mauldin Pro, and it will feature global macro and geopolitical research and analysis, portfolio recommendations, monthly interviews with some of the best talent in the business, and quarterly seminars to help you improve your game.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Crude Oil Asset Bubble Trouble / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
Nothing Ikonic about the Gold / Oil Ratio
Assuming for discussion that a 15-to-1 ratio between the price of I Troy ounce of gold and 1 barrel of oil is a long-term average or “ikonic ratio”, ( http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex2.htm) this would apply for $2 oil and $30 gold as much as $120 oil and $1800 gold. But the asset bubbles built around oil and gold would be rather different, each time. Also, coming down and off highs for the gold price, or for the oil price, there would be major bloodshed among the related overpriced and now-irrational asset values, but in the case of oil assets this will include national budgets, national FX values and even global economic growth. Deflating an oil asset bubble has a lot more ramifying impacts than coming down from a high for gold.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
A Short Tale About the Grand Manipulation of Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Happy Thanksgiving from Dubai.
I’ll have much more to tell you about my meetings in Paris, Frankfurt, and here on the Persian Gulf coast next week.
But today I’d like to fill you in on an interesting wrinkle I’ve uncovered dealing with the ongoing saga of why oil prices are so low.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Where Is the Price of Crude Oil Price Going? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 0.47% as Thursday's solid U.S. data and talks that OPEC may consider trimming production continued to support the commodity. As a result, light crude left the recent consolidation and closed the day above $76. Will we see a rally to $80 in the coming days?
On Friday, crude oil climbed to an intraday high of $77.83 as the combination of solid U.S. data continued to support the commodity. How did this increase affected the very short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 24, 2014
The 2014 Crude Oil Price Crash Explained / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
This is an article by our good friend Euan Mearns at the University of Aberdeen. It was originally published here .
- In February 2009 Phil Hart published on The Oil Drum a simple supply demand model that explained then the action in the oil price. In this post I update Phil’s model to July 2014 using monthly oil supply (crude+condensate) and price data from the Energy Information Agency (EIA).
- This model explains how a drop in demand for oil of only 1 million barrels per day can account for the fall in price from $110 to below $80 per barrel.
- The future price will be determined by demand, production capacity and OPEC production constraint. A further fall in demand of the order 1 Mbpd may see the price fall below $60. Conversely, at current demand, an OPEC production cut of the order 1 Mbpd may send the oil price back up towards $100. It seems that volatility has returned to the oil market.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Why Crude Oil $80 Is the New Normal, Reasons Saudi Arabia Will Not “Swing” / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Now the dust from the Shock & Awe of the 30% drop in oil prices has started to settle, two things are clear: (a) Saudi Arabia did not engineer anything (b) they don’t have a Machiavellian plan to stick one up the wildcatters in North Dakota, or the Russians...the Iranians...the Venezuelans, or even the genius from the Daily Telegraph who was bemoaning the fact that if oil prices go down it will be hard to import inflation into U.K.
Here are five good reasons why they are going to pass on the opportunity to slash their oil production by 30% so that other OPEC members can cheat and make a windfall, like they all did in 1987/8.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Who’s Ready For $30 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.
OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Iran Nuclear Negotiations, OPEC Meeting Loom For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
As November draws to a close, there are two major events that could profoundly change the oil markets.
With the clock ticking, the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5 plus 1) are negotiating down to the wire with Iran over its nuclear program. The two sides have made substantial progress, but some difficult issues remain unresolved ahead of the November 24 deadline.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Forget About Crude Oil Price Testing 2009 Low / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Austin_Galt
Oil has hit a slick recently with price sliding over 30% in the last five months. There are now calls for price to potentially test the 2009 lows. While I think this is a bit extreme, let’s investigate the charts to see what the evidence there suggests.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Are Crude Oil's Bears Over? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a stop-loss at $72.78 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil hit a fresh four-year low on Friday, the commodity rebounded sharply as upbeat U.S. data and speculations that OPEC countries may consider cutting output supported the price. As a result, light crude closed the day above $75 and invalidated the breakdown below important support lines. Is it enough to trigger a trend reversal?
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Whatever Happened To $100 Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Paradigm Shift
Business news provider Bloomberg, November 14, cited a Tass interview in which Vladimir Putin says that Russia is prepared for "catastrophic falls" of world oil prices and export revenues – on a day when Nymex oil market players and manipultors engineered a classic "sucker's rally" with a one-day 2.5% jump in Brent and WTI prices! Putin is unlikely to be fooled by that rally and Russia, like China has been making very large gold purchases as an insurance policy on likely or probable major currency upheavals, in Russia's case including intensified attacks in the present "war on the ruble" to punish its support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
IEA Says Oil Supplies May Not Keep Up With Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Despite what appears to be a saturated oil market in 2014, oil producers around the world will struggle to meet rising demand over the next few decades.
In its latest annual World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the current period of oil abundance may be fleeting, and in fact, without heroic levels of production increases, oil markets will grow dangerously tight in the coming years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Still Lower Prices Ahead For Crude Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sy_Harding
Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further.
In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure could build further through the first half of 2015.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Crude Oil Price Sinking Or Rebounding / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Long positions with a buy limit order at $75.82 and a stop-loss at $73.47 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
Although crude oil moved lower after the market's open, the commodity erased losses later in the day, hitting an intraday high of $78.04 as concerns over the situation in Libya supported the price. In this way, light crude gained 0.45% and bounced off the recent lows. Will we see a post double-bottom rally in the coming days?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
A Billionaire Insider Just Made a Bold Bet on Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: There was a very dramatic development in the oil market last week. It involved a well-known insider and a bullish bet on crude.
Harold Hamm, the CEO of Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLR), announced that his company – a major producer in the Bakken and other U.S. unconventional oil basins – had unwound its hedge positions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2014
What Crude Oil's Ratios Are Saying About Future Price Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Without a doubt, Oct was the worst month for oil bulls since May 2012. In the previous month, the commodity lost over 11% as the combination of a stronger greenback, rising supplies and weaker demand weighted on the price. Additionally, the first days of the new month have been very negative for oil investors. After the breakdown below the psychologically important barrier of $80, oil bears pushed the price lower and light crude hit a four-year low of $75.84, breaking under long-term support lines. In this way, the commodity posted its sixth weekly loss in a row. Will light crude drop any further in the nearest future? Is it possible that crude oil's ratios will give us some interesting clues?
Friday, November 07, 2014
$80 Crude Oil Price is the New Normal Minimum / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Saudi Arabia has nothing to do with falling prices at the pump, argues Bob Moriarty. He sees falling demand as the culprit, driven by economic slowdown in China, Europe and the U.S. In this interview with The Energy Report, Moriarty explains why increased consumer spending won't solve our problems, and discusses why he's still a fan of North American energy stocks—even though he hates shale oil.
Friday, November 07, 2014
Why the Saudis are Fighting a Losing Battle Over Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: For the second time in a month, Saudi Arabia has grabbed the headlines in the oil markets. The kingdom is cutting prices again in its global oil feud.
In its latest version, Saudi Aramco (the national oil company) has restored an earlier price cut to Asia, but reduced its price to U.S customers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2014
Why We Need Overpriced Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
High on High Priced Oil
Royal Dutch Shell's new chairman Chad Hallyday says that falling oil prices are the top of his agenda and like other “historic majors” such as ConocoPhillips and ENI, Shell gets a painful bottom line hit from lower prices. Reported by the 'Financial Times', October 31, Hallyday says that each $10 fall in the barrel price means $3 billion less earnings a year and a prolonged period of Brent prices around $85 a barrel would translate to $8 bn-a-year of reduced profits for Shell. Nevertheless Hallyday is not only a former BofA banking chief, but also co-chaired the UN's high level group on sustainable energy, which in 2011 pledged a doubling of renewable energy in world energy by 2030. The recent doomster grandstanding by UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon to “prevent planetary disaster from global warming” calls for the total elimination of all fossil fuels “before the end of the century”.