Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, January 04, 2020
Crude Oil Prices Have Peaked / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the December 18, 2019 Market Minute titled "Are oil prices at a crest?" oil prices (WTI and Brent) are both finding increasing selling pressure as they moved to the top of their trading range.
Light crude oil found solid selling pressure around $62 and Brent at about $67 (Charts 1 & 2).
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Friday, January 03, 2020
Crude Oil Price Reverses Lower Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although oil bulls managed to push the futures higher and broke above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session, Monday’s upswing turned out only temporary.
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Monday, December 30, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Again Rejected At the Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures extended gains, breaking above the upper border of the rising green trend channel during yesterday’s session. This upswing took the futures right to the red gap. Let’s see how this has reflected upon the daily indicators.
They look quite extended, suggesting that the space for additional gains may be limited and that a reversal is probably just around the corner.
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Monday, December 23, 2019
Crude Oil Bulls Keep Trying But the Technical Headwinds Are Stiff / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures moved higher once again during yesterday’s session, overcoming the upper border of the rising green trend channel for the third time in a row. While the futures finished the day above this resistance, the bulls didn’t manage to hold gained ground in full.
Earlier today, the futures opened with the red gap. This bearish development means invalidation of yesterday’s breakout, which doesn’t bode well for the bulls.
The daily indicators are still very extended, also supporting the likelihood of upcoming reversal to the downside.
Should the futures extend losses from here, the initial downside target for the sellers will be the Friday’s green gap.
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Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Crude Oil Price Sliding Faster Than You Can Blink / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil futures declined sharply on Friday. The steep slide’s result was a breakdown below the lower border of the rising green trend channel. As the prices closed the day below the formation, it’s clearly a bearish development.
Despite this setback, the bulls opened the week with a green gap, which has triggered modest improvement in the following hours. The bulls are fighting to invalidate the earlier breakdown below the green trend channel, and have reached the lower border of the blue consolidation on intraday basis. Prices have pulled back since though, and are currently trading at around $56.00.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
The Worst Is Over For Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.
Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.
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Thursday, November 21, 2019
Crude Oil Price Begins To Move Lower / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we posted a multi-part research post suggesting a collapse in Crude Oil could be setting up and how we believe this decline in energy prices may lead to a broader market collapse in the near future. Crude oil fell more than 3% on November 19 in what appears to be a major price reversal. On November 20, inventory levels and other key economic data will be presented – could the price of oil collapse even further over the next 60+ days?
Here is a link to our most recent multi-part article about Crude Oil from November 13 (just a week ago): https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/what-happens-to-the-global-economy-if-oil-collapses-below-40-part-i/
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Sunday, November 17, 2019
When the Crude Oil Price Collapses Below $40 What Happens? PART III / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This, the final section of this multi-part research article, will continue our exploration of the consequences that may result from our ADL predictive modeling system’s suggestion that Oil may continue to fall to levels below $40 over the next few months.
In Part I and Part II, we’ve highlighted what we believe to be very compelling evidence that any continue oil price decline from current levels may be setting up the global markets for a massively volatile price reversion – similar to what happened in 1929.
Prior to the stock market collapse in 1929 and the start of the Great Depression, commodity prices collapsed in 1921 and again in 1930. This commodity price collapse was the result of over-supply and a dramatic change in investor mentality. The shift away from tangible items and real successful investing/manufacturing and towards speculation in the housing markets and stock market.
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Friday, November 15, 2019
What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 – Part II / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019. Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is expected to target $25 to $30 in February~April 2020.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
What Happens To The Global Economy If the Oil Price Collapses Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Currently, commodity prices are the cheapest they’ve been in over 40 years compared to equity prices. US Equities have continued to rise over the past 7+ years due to a number of external processes. QE1, 2, 3, and Fed Debt Purchases Share Buy-Backs and creative credit facilities. Only recently have investors really started to pile into the US stock market (see charts below). Global investors were very cautious throughout the rally from 2011 to 2016. In fact, the amount of capital invested within the US money market accounts was relatively flat throughout that entire time.
It was only after the 2016 US presidential election that investors really began to have confidence in the global economy and started piling into the US stock market and money market accounts. This was also after the time that Oil began to collapse (2014~16) as well as the deflation of Emerging Markets rallies. With all this new money having entered the global markets and equities being extremely overbought currently, what would happen is Oil collapsed below $40 and the global economic outlook soured headed into the 2020 US presidential election?
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
The EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Oil Shale / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The prevailing wisdom that sees explosive and long-term potential for U.S. shale may rest on some faulty and overly-optimistic assumptions, according to a new report.
Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), along with those from its Paris-based counterpart, the International Energy Agency (IEA), are often cited as the gold standard for energy outlooks. Businesses and governments often refer to these forecasts for long-term investments and policy planning.
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Saturday, November 09, 2019
Oil Price Reversal in Progress / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Let's take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of www.stooq.com ) and assess the likely crude oil price path ahead.
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Thursday, October 24, 2019
Making Money Trading Oil: A Slippery Investment or Black Gold? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Where Next for Oil After Its Double Reversal? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Crude oil bounced from its yesterday’s lows, and the oil bulls rebuffed another attempt to move lower earlier today. Does that mean that the upswing can continue now, or a cautious approach would win the day?
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Wednesday, October 09, 2019
USO United States Oil Fund Longer Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly the USO instrument inception date was 4/10/2006. CL_F Crude Oil put in an all time high at 147.27 in July 2008. USO put in an all time high at 119.17 in July 2008 noted on the monthly chart. The decline from there into the February 2009 lows was in three swings. An a-b-c in red although it was a very steep pullback.
The bounce from the 2009 lows is a complex double three combination with a triangle “y”. This is w-x-y in red to end the blue wave (x). In either a bullish or bearish market this particular structure always makes a high or low in the initial wave “w”. Structures like this will be followed by a contracting or running triangle. In this case the structure ended in June 2014. The decline from those highs were very sharp again. However, this was in three swings again a-b-c in red to end the blue wave (y). This completed a three swing correction (w)-(x)-(y) in blue from the July 2008 highs. That is labeled ((b)) in black at the February 2016 lows.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
ADL Predicts Crude Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.
Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil, but before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that Crude Oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that Oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, Oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Trump: Transform The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Into An Oil Bank / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Following the attacks on key crude oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the authorization of the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to keep the market well supplied. This move changes nothing in the way the SPR is governed. The market, not the President, should determine the release of the massive SPR.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Saudi Oil Shock: Who Wins, Who Loses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On September 14th, drones targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil refinery and Khurais oil field. The strikes reportedly knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's total output. That amounts to a whopping 6-7% of the global daily oil supply. Not surprisingly, before the dust had settled, the press sounded an alarm and spread fear. Then, President Trump jumped in, claiming the attack “won't affect us and ultimately I don't think it will affect the world either.” Well, let’s take a look at the data.
Brent crude prices surged by 15%, from $60/bbl on September 13th to $69/bbl on the 16th, the first trading day after last weekend’s drone attacks. Brent crude is now trading at $65/bbl. While a significant increase, the response to this incident has kept oil in what Arend Kapteyn of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) deems to be in a safe zone ($50-$75/bbl). When prices are in this sweet spot, the “gains” and “losses” from oil price changes are roughly balanced, so the global economy can hum along without missing a beat.
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Crude Oil Price Volatility Returns / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Avi_Gilburt
By Andy Hecht: Crude oil is the energy commodity that powers the world. Over half of the world’s petroleum reserves are in the Middle East, which is the most turbulent political region on the face of the earth. Meanwhile, the United States is the leading consumer of crude oil.
For many years, the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil contributed to its price variance. The Arab-Israeli War in the 1970s led to an oil embargo and gasoline shortages in the US. When I first got my driving license, the US was on a program where gas was only available on alternate days each week depending on if a license plate had an odd or an even last digit. In 1979, the Islamic revolution in Iran led to a hostage crisis and supply concerns in the oil market.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits. We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event. We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.
The real questions before skilled technical traders are:
What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?
What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?
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