Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 07, 2013
OPEC Warned On 2014 Crude Oil Supply Glut / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
TIMELY ADVICE TO OPECLeo Drollas, the head of the Saudi-backed, London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies in a 3 December interview with New Europe on the eve of the 4 December OPEC meeting, itemized several supply-side reasons why present high oil prices are not forever. Apart from the USA's record-breaking output of oil driven by its shale-oil production, Drollas said: “Next year, Iraqi oil will increase by 300,000 barrels a day, we think at least, there will be 250,000 more from Venezuela, there will be possibly 1 more million barrels from Iran, when Iran comes back, and Libyan oil should return”.
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Friday, December 06, 2013
Crude Oil Price Outlook / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our previous essay we focused on the oil-stocks-to-oil ratio and its implications for oil stocks. However, at the end of November we checked this ratio to find out what impact it could have on future crude oil's moves. At that time we wrote the following:
Read full article... Read full article...(...) the first thing that catches the eye on the above chart is a strong negative correlation between the ratio and the price of light crude.(...) the ratio remains in the gap between the April 2009 low and May 2009 high (...). In all previous cases, such a position of the ratio triggered a correction, which resulted in higher prices of light crude. Additionally, the ratio has approached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire 2009-2011 decline), which is a strong resistance level. Taking the above into account, if history repeats itself once again and the ratio declines, we will likely see the bottom of the current correction.
Thursday, December 05, 2013
The Future of OPEC / Politics / Crude Oil
By: STRATFOR
The prospect of revitalized oil production in Iraq and Iran may add to tensions between those two countries and Saudi Arabia over export quotas. On Dec. 4, representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna to discuss a number of topics. OPEC is facing two challenges. First, OPEC's historically biggest consumer -- the United States -- is rapidly increasing its own domestic production. At the same time, OPEC must deal with plans to expand oil production envisioned both by Iraq and Iran, which could lead to lower prices than the cartel desires. Ultimately, however, emerging markets in Asia will set global demand, and their energy thirst will determine the scale of the problem OPEC faces.
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
Will Strong Resistance Zone Stop the Oil-Stocks-to- Crude Oil Proce Ratio’s Rally? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our last commentary on oil stocks from Nov. 20, we examined the NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) to find out what the current outlook for oil stocks was. In the summary, we wrote that the combination of a strong resistance level (the upper line of the smaller rising wedge) and the position of the RSI may encourage sellers to lock profits and trigger another correction in the coming days.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Brent-WTI Crude Oil Premium - Strangers In The Night / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
STRANGERS IN THE NIGHT
'Oil & Gas Journal' in an article by RBN Energy in its July 23, 2013 edition, when the premium or differential for Brent grade oil against US West Texas Intermediate collapsed to nearly zero from highs above $25 in 2011 and 2012, and a 2013 peak of $23 to date, said that despite the rebounds and recoveries, the premium has to decline. Its fundamentals are bad, the logic is bad, and the premium has strong headwinds. For oil brokers and traders, however, the heavily traded “premium trade” is still good for a flutter on the markets. Brent's premium shook itself out of bed and jumped from $14.64 to $16.21 in the week ending Nov 22, in two days trading but fell back the following week.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Soaring U.S. Crude Oil Storage - Set to Pass 400 Million Threshold / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: EconMatters
Trend is to Store more Oil
A year ago oil in storage stood at 274 million barrels, and with another robust year of domestic production, and despite curtailed imports, the US Oil Inventory stands at 391 million barrels and climbing.
We are still technically in the building season for oil supplies which peaked in late May just shy of 400 Million Barrels, before the drawing season kicked off with the exporting of gasoline through increased refinery utilization led by the gulf coast refiners with their increased capacity to take advantage of the spread differential and cheaper operational energy in natural gas to export refined products more competitively than peer nations.
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Friday, November 29, 2013
What the Iranian Nuke Deal Means for the Crude Oil Markets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes: The big news over the weekend was the apparent “breakthrough” with Iran.
I say “apparent” because we don’t know much about the substance of the deal. The reason is because the substance doesn’t exist yet.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Crude Oil Price Balancing Act For The Trader Community / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
MODERATION AND EXCESS
In the immediate wake of the Iran sanctions-unwinding agreement thrown together with many unanswered question in Geneva, Sunday night, Brent crude fell $2.29 or about 2.7% to settle at $108.76 a barrel, while US-traded West Texas Intermediate was down $1.44 to $93.40, in response to the agreement. Analysts were however quick to warn that Iranian exports are unlikely to jump in the short term because key limitations on sales – including a ban on crude oil but not finished product exports to the EU – will remain in place until a comprehensive deal is reached, starting six months from now.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
The Iran Nuclear Deal: What the Big Six Really Have to Gain / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Marin_Katusa
Over the weekend, the world changed.
Officials from Iran made a deal with six countries (the US, Russia, China, England, France, and Germany)—in exchange for suspending the world's sanctions on Iran, Iran will curb its nuclear weapons program.
Though it's only a six-month interim agreement for now, it's an important first step toward bringing Iran economically closer to the rest of the world.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Stocks to Oil Ratio Implications for Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our commentary from Nov. 14, you could read about the connection between oil stocks and the general stock market. Back then, we wrote the following:
(…) we clearly see that the XOI and the S&P 500 have moved roughly in the same direction in the recent years (…) a strong positive correlation remains in place also on a short-term basis.
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Can Oil-Stocks-to-Oil Ratio Tell Us Crude Oil Price Future Moves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In our essay on oil stocks from Nov. 14, we focused on the connection between the XOI and the general stock market to find out what impact the S&P500 index could have on the oil stock index's future moves. Back then, we also wrote about the relationship between the oil stocks and crude oil:
(...) crude oil has remained in the narrow range, but yesterday it climbed above $95. What's interesting, at the same time the XOI increased slightly above an important resistance. Although they moved in the same direction after weeks of negative correlation, this positive correlation might be just another temporary phenomenon - especially when we factor in the weekly outlook.
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Monday, November 18, 2013
Why is Crude Oil Overpriced? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
POLITICAL RISK VERSUS ENERGY ECONOMICS
Expressed in terms of price for 1 barrel equivalent of oil energy at present market prices, world coal costs about $14.50 per barrel FOB (before transport costs), US domestic natural gas costs about $20.50 per barrel, while European and Asian natural gas is priced at more than $65 per barrel, but will surely and certainly decline in the next 3 – 4 years.
Wednesday, November 06, 2013
Crude Oil Price Shakedown / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
BEWARE THE BULLS
As I already noted in several articles, WTI grade oil at less than $100 a barrel is something of a revolution and an open incitation for Wall street's “heavy lift brigade” to plunge protect and lift prices back up to what they think is the right level. The leading member of the heavy lift brigade, Goldman Sachs, has until relatively recently bragged that WTI could reach $125 a barrel by Dec 31st or early in the new year.
Tuesday, November 05, 2013
What Can We Infer From the Crude Oil Price to Oil Stocks Ratio? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The first days of the new month have been hard for oil bulls. After the breakdown below the lower border of the declining trend channel the buyers didn’t manage to stop oil bears. The bears showed their claws on Thursday and pushed the price below the October low. This event resulted in a heavy decline, which took light crude below $95. On top of that, yesterday we saw further deterioration and crude oil dropped to a new monthly low of $94.06.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Do Oil Stocks Have Better Upside Potential Than Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In the previous week the price of crude oil not only dropped below the psychological barrier of $100, but also reached a new four-month low of $95.95. On the other hand, the buyers managed to push light crude higher at the end of the last week. Earlier this week we saw further improvement and the price climbed to almost $99 per barrel.
Taking the above circumstances into account, you are probably wondering what impact they had on oil stocks. Before we examine the current situation with the oil stock index, let’s focus on the relationship between the WTI and the XOI in the short term.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Crude Oil and Its Connection with the U.S. Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The recent months have been tough for the U.S. currency. Since July the greenback has lost 6% and dropped to a new eight-month low on Friday. Investors avoided the dollar, firstly after the Fed opted against cutting its stimulus in September and then as the budget spat in Washington pushed the country close to a default. Despite this decline, yesterday, the dollar pulled back from an eight-month low as investors awaited delayed U.S. jobs data.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Crude Oil Teeters On The Brink – Of $100 A Barrel / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
MEMORIES OF THE 1986 PRICE CRASH
Like the US debt ceiling saga – with the only possible result being more debt - the ultra-magic triple-digit dollar price of US WTI, and of course more for European Brent, needs extraordinary measures to stay that overblown. In the case of the US debt mountain the Fed does the extraordinary (over)blowing, but for oil WTI counts on heavy lifting by leading members of Wall Street's oil market manipulator clique – sometimes called “investors” - who not so long ago forecast WTI as easily able to attain $125 per barrel by December 31st.
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Who Controls Libyan Oil? / Politics / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_McKillop
LIBYA'S BEEFEATER LEAGUE DEFENDS THE OIL
In August, Reuters reported from Tripoli: “Libya will use all means, including military force if necessary, to prevent striking security guards at the country’s main ports from selling its crude oil independently, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said”. Zeidan called the security guards a critical challenge to the government, because strikes at Libya’s two largest ports have pushed production and exports to their lowest levels since the civil war that ousted 42-year veteran leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
Monday, October 14, 2013
Crude Oil Price Change of Trend or Just a Correction? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
The previous week was quite hard for the oil bulls. Light crude lost almost 2% and slipped to its lowest level since July 3. When we take a closer look at the chart of crude oil we clearly see that the price of light crude remains in the narrow range between $100 and $104 per barrel. Since the beginning of the month oil bulls and bears have pushed it above or below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, however, neither the buyers nor the sellers have had enough strength to win and trigger another bigger move.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Crude Oil Price Volatility on the Way? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Tom Therramus writes: In a previous Oil-Price.net articles published in 2010 and 2011 , I discussed predictive relationships that appear to occur between large, rapid swings in oil price and recessions, stock market crashes and shifts in political polls. Given the economic disruptions that nearly always happen in the aftermath of oil shocks, it seems important to understand what is behind the timing of transient instabilities in the oil markets.