Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Inflation Is Not Our Biggest Threat / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
You wouldn’t know that by listening to current commentary on the economy.
There is a bigger threat, though. But first, there is some clarification about inflation that is necessary.
Most people infer rising prices when they hear the term inflation. That is not correct. The rising prices are the ‘effects’ of inflation. The inflation, itself, has already been created.
It is notcreated, or caused, by companies raising prices. And it is not created by ‘escalating wage demand’.
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Here’s What Inflation Could Look Like in 2020, Based on Past Surges / Economics / Inflation
By: GoldSilver
Jeff Clark, Rising inflation has hit the headlines, sparking some attention from journalists. What most mainstream investors don’t realize, though, is that history shows inflation can quickly get out of control, and not just in some mismanaged third-world country. Surprise spikes in inflation have occurred right here in the US—and given the massive amount of currency dilution around the world over the past decade, a jump in inflation could easily kick in again.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Forget the CPI, Inflation is Here. And the Markets Know It / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The attempts to mask inflation are reaching truly ludicrous proportions.
Bloomberg reports that the “guts of the US CPI show key inflation weakest in years.”
What are the “guts?”
Housing rents… which the CPI claims are falling.
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
This Isn’t Your Grandfather’s (1960s) Inflation Scare / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
“This reminds me of the late 1960s when we experimented with low rates and fiscal stimulus to keep the economy at full employment and fund the Vietnam War. Today we don’t have a recession, let alone a war. We are setting the stage for accelerating inflation, just as we did in the late ‘60s.”—Paul Tudor Jones
As soon as the GOP followed its long-promised tax cuts with damn-the-deficit spending increases (who cares about the kids, right?), you knew to be ready for the Lyndon B. Johnson reminders.
And it’s worth remembering that LBJ pushed federal spending higher, pushed his central bank chairman against the wall (figuratively and, by several accounts, also literally) and eventually pushed inflation to post–Korean War highs.
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 3 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
“During the 1980s and 1990s, most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon.”
—Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke began his oft-cited “helicopter speech” in 2002 with a few kind words about his peers, including the excerpt above. Speaking for central bankers, he took a large share of the credit for the low inflation of the 1980s and 1990s. Central bankers had gained a “heightened understanding” of inflation, he said, and he expected the future to bring even more inflation-taming success.
Of course, Bernanke’s cohorts took a few knocks in the boom–bust cycle that followed his speech, but their reputations as masters of inflation (and deflation) only grew. Today, the picture he painted seems even more firmly planted in the public mind than it was in 2002, notwithstanding recent data showing inflation creeping higher.
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Thursday, March 08, 2018
China Is Leading a Once-in-a-Generation Shift to Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
By Patrick Watson : At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Louis Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talked about “game-changing policy shifts” and massive social changes that are underway in China.
One of the most notable changes is Xi Jinping’s effort to pull the Chinese economy away from pollution-heavy industries. Cement, steel, and textile industries are under pressure—they are forced to cut back production and reduce supply.
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Monday, February 26, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 2 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
But does it really?
In Part 1 of this series, I said I would challenge popular beliefs about inflation, while at the same time proposing an alternative theory. I also promised that the theory leads to an inflation indicator with an excellent prediction record, and I’ll define the indicator in this article. Considering inflation determines bull and bear markets in both stocks and bonds, that’s my big pitch.
But first, here’s a recap.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2018
5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Investors got lulled into a state of inflation complacency. Persistently low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond yields along with risk premiums on all financial assets.
That’s changing in 2018. Five drivers of higher inflation rates are now starting to kick in.
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Sunday, February 18, 2018
An Inflation Indicator to Watch, Part 1 / Economics / Inflation
By: F_F_Wiley
Have you ever questioned Milton Friedman’s famous claim about inflation?
Ever heard anyone else question it?
Unless you read obscure stuff written for the academic community, you’re probably not used to Friedman’s quote being challenged. And that’s despite a lousy forecasting record by economists who bought into his Monetarist methods.
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Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Inflation Tsunami Ahead / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Inflation is one of the most misunderstood, misused and lied about topics in economics. The Fed professes to know what causes it: an overly employed workforce. But, perhaps it is aware this is false and intentionally promulgates the ruse of growth as inflation’s progenitor because central banks want to deflect attention away from its money printing. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear, we all have to agree that the Fed can’t readily control the exact rate of inflation; nor can it direct what the repositories will be for its quantitative counterfeiting misadventures.
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Critical Impact Of US Medicare Premiums On Social Security Inflation Indexing / Politics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
Medicare premiums are already eating Social Security inflation indexing from the inside, there have been effectively no real increases in net Social Security benefits for those 65 and over in recent years. And we are just getting started.
Experts agree that the Medicare program has far worse expected financial problems than Social Security over the long term. What is little understood, however, is that Medicare premiums are the back door whereby the health care expenses of an aging nation consume the individual standards of living that can be provided by Social Security. This process can entirely change our personal standards of living in retirement and needs to be fully taken into account when making financial planning decisions.
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Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Trump’s Tax Cuts: The Good, The Bad, and the Inflationary / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
At last, tax reform is happening! Last week, President Donald Trump celebrated the passage of the most important legislation so far of his presidency.
The final bill falls far short of the “file on a postcard” promise of Trump’s campaign. It even falls short of the bill trotted out by Congressional Republicans just a few weeks ago. It is, nevertheless, the most significant tax overhaul in more than a decade.
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Friday, December 15, 2017
Inflation is Spiking Globally… Bond Bubble Bursts in 3… 2… / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
I believe 2018 will be the year inflation arrives.
The reason, as I’ve noted throughout mid-2017, is that multiple Central Banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) have maintained emergency levels of QE and money printing, despite the fact that globally the economy is performing relatively well.
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Thursday, December 07, 2017
Finally, An Honest Inflation Index – Guess What It Shows / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Central bankers keep lamenting the fact that record low interest rates and record high currency creation haven’t generated enough inflation (because remember, for these guys inflation is a good thing rather than a dangerous disease).
To which the sound money community keeps responding, “You’re looking in the wrong place! Include the prices of stocks, bonds and real estate in your models and you’ll see that inflation is high and rising.”
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Tuesday, November 28, 2017
The $76 Trillion Bond Market Is Forecasting Inflation. Are You Ready? / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
This year, (2017) was the year that the financial system moved from fearing deflation to expecting inflation.
You can see this in the breakout in inflation expectations. From 2013 until mid-2016, the financial system’s expectations of future inflation were in a downtrend. Mid-2016 this changed as expectations began to rise, breaking this downtrend in early 2017.
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Friday, November 17, 2017
The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security - most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed.
However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design it does not fully keep up with inflation.
Sound like an obscure difference?
"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months - to cover 12 months of expenses each year.
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Friday, November 17, 2017
The Fed Isn’t “Confused” About Inflation… It WANTS You In the Dark! / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed claims it’s “confused” as to why inflation remains so low.
The Fed isn’t confused at all. It intentionally measures inflation in ridiculous ways to guarantee that the “official number” remains nowhere near reality.
On top of this, we have factual evidence that Fed is in fact well aware that inflation is clocking in well above its 2% “target.”
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Sunday, November 12, 2017
Who Are You Going to Trust, the Fed or $76 Trillion in”Smart Money”? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s talk about inflation.
There are two types of inflation in the world… the “inflation” that you and I experience in the form of a rising cost of living induced by Central Banks devaluing our currencies…
…and the inflation that Central Banks are “targeting” in the bizarre claim that somehow hitting said targets will unleash economic growth.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2017
Over Two Thirds of Global GDP Is Entering an Inflationary Shock / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The world is careening towards an inflationary shock.
As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what’s happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what’s about to take place.
Below is a chart you have to see.
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Monday, October 16, 2017
Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions.
Some Thoughts And Assertions
An inflation target implies that modest inflation is actually a good thing. This is simply wrong. Inflation is a “stealth tax” through which governments confiscate a bit of savers’ wealth each year without admitting it. If explained honestly such a trick would be a political loser always and everywhere.