Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Fed Inflation Is Losing Its Intended Effect / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
The chart below shows the ratio of the gold price to the monetary base for the past one hundred years. The monetary base used in the chart is calculated by the St. Louis Federal Reserve and the following definition is from their website:
“The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.” (source)
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Monetary Metals on Keynes, Inflation and Evil Itself / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since NFTRH 543 was also known as the ‘What if… Inflation?’ report, I was attuned to the subject; and on cue here comes Keith Weiner with a knockout punch.
Keynes Was a Vicious Bastard, Report
He goes off on the evil (and I do mean evil) genius, John Maynard Keynes before moving on to his usual gold and silver supply/demand fundamental report.
Read full article... Read full article...He gave us the recipe for “overturning the existing basis of society.” All you have to do is “a continuing process of inflation,” which will “confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” This “brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires” to the “profiteers, who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat.” Finally, this process “engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
How Government Causes Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
We know that inflation is the debasement of money by government. The effects of inflation show up in the form of rising prices over time. The rising prices are a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the currency involved. For our purposes, that means the U.S. dollar.
The chart below depicts increases in the Consumer Price Index, year-to-year, dating back to 1914…
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
Forget What Phony Government Statistics Say – the "Strong Dollar" Buys Less / Economics / Inflation
By: Dan_Steinbock
Some of last week’s weakness in the stock market was attributed to surprisingly week jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls came in significantly below projections.
However, much of that weakness was explained by Hurricane Florence. nd the headline unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% – the lowest in almost 50 years.
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
“A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold” Revisited / Currencies / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
One of the earliest articles I wrote was “A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold”. The information contained in the article is basic to a fundamental and accurate understanding of gold.
The convolution and complication of basic fundamentals reigns supreme in almost all analysis of gold. That is unfortunate, because it obscures the simple truth.
The simple truth is that gold is real money. Even that simple truth, however, deserves some further explanation.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Inflation Target Regrets / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Beginning this fall, and continuing throughout 2019, the stock market’s performance should be vastly different from what has occurred during the prior few years. Indeed, the huge reconciliation of stock prices is arriving now.
The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2018
ECB Meeting Minutes and US Inflation Data in Focus / Economics / Inflation
By: Submissions
We don’t have a central bank meeting scheduled for this week, but we get the minutes of the latest ECB one. Following the upbeat remarks of President Draghi at the conference following that meeting, it will be interesting to see whether other ECB officials are on the same page. In the US, we have the CPIs for September. We get inflation data from Norway and Sweden as well.
Monday appears to be a quiet day in terms of economic releases. The only noteworthy data point we have on the calendar is German industrial production for August, which is expected to have rebounded 0.4% mom after sliding 1.1% in July.
On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get Australia’s NAB business survey for September. Although this is usually not a market mover, given the RBA’s emphasis on wage growth, we will take a close look at the Labour Costs sub-index. At its last two meetings, the Bank reiterated that wage growth remains low, but removed the part saying that this is likely to continue. Instead, officials noted that it has picked up a little and that further lift is expected. The NAB Labour Costs index accelerated to +1.3% qoq in the three months to August, from 0.9% in the three months to July and it would be interesting to see whether this improvement will continue as the RBA has suggested.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Anatomy of Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Two drones filled with explosives were recently deployed in a failed assassination attempt to take out Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Chaos filled the streets as the military ran for their lives. But this sort of pandemonium is commonplace in Venezuela today: Where citizens have run out of basic necessities such as toilet paper and have begun eating their pets in order to stay alive. The mainstream Keynesian-brainwashed media doesn’t talk much about Venezuela or hyperinflation; perhaps because they are viscerally aware that the seeds of intractable inflation on a worldwide basis have already been sown by the global elites--and they don’t want to frighten you.
Venezuela is currently in the throes of hyperinflation on a massive scale. The communist-led government has mismanaged its economy into a fiscal catastrophe. Among other things, skilled farmers were thrown off their land and replaced by government apparatchiks that are untrained and incapable of producing enough food to feed the people. Oil production also waned due to mismanagement and corruption. To smooth over the government’s mounting debt it printed massive amounts of money in response to rising budget deficits. The currency plummeted, and foreign denominated debts were defaulted on.
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Sunday, August 05, 2018
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done it again. In an attempt to garner some press, the head of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department Alejandro Werner forecasted that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will reach 1,000,000% by year’s end. By my calculations, this inflation forecast implies that the exchange rate will reach 923 million VEF/USD by December 2018. To put this into context, the exchange rate at the end of July was 3.3 million VEF/USD, and at the end of June it was 3.1 million VEF/USD.
Thursday, August 02, 2018
Are You Ready For Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The market is sensing a major turn.
As I’ve noted before, the currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets on the planet. As such they sense changes first.
With that in mind, consider that the “inflation” currencies are showing a major turn in the $USD.
First and foremost, the Australian Dollar: $USD pair looks to have bottomed. We have a clear bullish falling wedge formation being broken to the upside. We should expect a retest of former support (red line) at the very least.
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Wednesday, June 13, 2018
The $USD Thinks the Fed Will Choose Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed meets today, and whatever happens will be a BIG “tell” for the rest of the year.
On the one hand, inflation is clearly seeping fully into the financial system. Even the ridiculously massaged CPI measure of inflation shows it is close to 3%.
This would suggest the Fed would move aggressively to hike rates to curb inflation.
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Monday, June 11, 2018
Inflation to Skyrocket When Fed Reverts to New QE & Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me examine what’s happening beneath the surface in the markets right now, and why we should all be very leery of putting too much stock into what we’re hearing from the mainstream financial media these days regarding the economy. Don’t miss another sensational interview with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold prices see-sawed around the $1,300 level this week as silver prices advanced to 7-week highs. As of this Friday recording, gold trades at $1,298 an ounce, up 0.2% for the week. Silver prices come in at $16.75, good for a 1.8% weekly gain.
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Thursday, June 07, 2018
The US Dollar Has Already Figured Out That Inflation is Coming / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed has gone dovish. In fact, it’s going to allow inflation to explode higher.
That, in of itself, is significant… to understand why, we first need to acknowledge how the Fed currently operates to control risk in the financial system.
The Fed currently has two primary tools for controlling the financial system. They are:
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Wednesday, June 06, 2018
How Savvy Investors Do (and Don’t) Hedge against Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Inflation is a corrosive force that gradually – and sometimes rapidly – eats away at the nominal value of savings and investments.
It is perhaps the biggest threat looming on the horizon for millions of retirees who have been steered into assets marketed as “conservative” – such as dollar-denominated money market accounts, bonds, and annuities.
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Saturday, June 02, 2018
Buckle Up Deflationists… You’re Getting Taken to the Cleaners / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The current view trending in social media as well as most of the financial media is that Italy is about to trigger a systemic collapse of Europe.
Those proposing this theory are using charts of Italy’s bond yields and stock market that focus on the last few years when the country was being priced at a ridiculously low risk.
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Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Debilitating Inflation Is Like an Army of Termites Eating Away Your House / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report, and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com.
David, thanks for joining us again, how are you?
David Smith: You bet, Mike. It's great to speak with you again.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Coming Inflationary Storm Is Entirely Due to Central Banks / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
We’ve received a number of emails asking us how inflation is on the rise while the Fed is technically “tightening.”
The answer is that while the Fed is technically tightening, other Central Banks, particularly the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) have been printing their currencies by the hundreds of billions.
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Thursday, May 03, 2018
Fed FOMC Update: Stagflation on the Horizon / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is fast approaching its worst nightmare.
Stag-flation.
Stagflation is when inflation is rising at the same time that the economy is weakening, if not contracting.
The Fed has always argued that low levels of inflation (2%) were acceptable provided the economy was also growing. Indeed, this is the very gimmick the Fed has utilized to mask the fact that quality of life has been falling in the US since the early ‘70s (by understating inflation, the Fed has overstated economic/ income growth).
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Wednesday, May 02, 2018
Two Charts That Argue Inflation, NOT Deflation, is Now the Dominant Trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are moving into their first MAJOR inflationary shift in TEN years.
Perhaps the single best metric for measuring inflation vs. deflation in the bond markets is the TIPs to Long US Treasury ratio. In its simplest rendering when this ratio rises, it means inflation is on the rise. When it falls it means deflation is dominating the bond markets.
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Monday, April 23, 2018
Inflation, With a Shelf Life / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
For the last few weeks we’ve used the conditions noted in the graphic below as a guide. Well, the ‘inflation trade’ (IT) popped last week and that included cyclical metals (as well as silver) ramming upward vs. gold and TIP rising vs. TLT & IEF.
As for credit conditions, there is little imminently raising caution flags as commercial lending and risk taking (as indicated by high yield junk bonds) continue apace, but the note still stands on the bigger picture as the credit system and money supply are gumming up with the Fed in quantitative and Fed Funds tightening mode while the velocity of money in the economy maintains a secular downtrend.
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