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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Stock Market Santa Rally and Election Weapons of Mass Deception

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Dec 13, 2009 - 02:27 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlistair Darling delivered his final pre-budget / pre-election report on Wednesday, which was pretty much inline with my earlier expectations namely to hit bankster's with a 50% tax, delayed tax rises and above all to continue spending like there is no tomorrow therefore fulfilling the Labour party strategy of delivering a scorched earth economy to the next Conservative Government. It only remains to be seen what more nightmare policies Labour has in store to completely wreck the British economy in its final few months of government as per my inflationary mega-trend's scenario (to be completed this month), I suspect inflation will make an appearance virtually within days of Labour being dumped at the polls.


My election forecast of 2nd June 2009 still stands that projects an outcome of Conservatives on 343 seats, Labour 225 and Lib Dems on 40. Though Labour's strategy of bankrupting Britain to maximises it chances at the election does mean that by the time the Election is actually called the forecast may need to be revised in Labours favour i.e. the chances of a hung parliament look set to increase markedly.

Meanwhile Tony Bliar popped up Satuday in an attempt to drive a final nail into Gordon Browns election prospects coffin by attempting to cover his back in advance of an appearance at the white-wash Iraq Inquiry next week, he is basically now allegedly admitting to lying to Parliament about the primary reason for invading and occupying Iraq, and also stated that if the 45 minute WMD lie had not worked, then he would have kept trying with more lies until he got his way. It is very easy for politicians such as Bliar to send the sons of others off to die on the basis of lies whilst his own sons never would be allowed to do so.

Financial Markets Quick Update

Stocks - As anticipated the Dow fell to the expanding triangle target and bounced. The subsequent bounce has been quite strong and illustrates the difficulty in trading this type of pattern that includes higher highs and lower lows. To fulfill the pattern objectives the Dow should now enter into the final swing lower, however against this we have the imminent strong seasonal santa rally pulling in the opposite direction higher. My concluding thought, we get the santa rally to a new 2009 high for the Dow into the last few days of December and then the market starts the significant correction, and I'll try and get my forecast for 2010 completed before it begins!

Gold - Gold is now down near 10% and close to the target of a move back through $1,100, next target lower would be $1,050 as at this point in time there is no sign of a bottom to this correction, however in the immediate future we may see a bounce higher early next week.

U.S. Dollar- Has the dollar finally bottomed after many false dawns? 76.60 puts it within touching distance of the 77.00 initial Buy trigger that remains unfilled. The fundamental picture of increasing risks of sovereign debt defaults does favour the worlds reserve currency. Gold and other commodities are acting as expected by falling against a rallying dollar, however not stocks as mentioned above and as I warned of way back in November 2nd. Immediate future could see the dollar trade lower which would be healthy as it would generate a higher low pattern to act as a spring board for the rally.

Popular Culture and the Stock Market

Robert Prechter has made available another FREE Report (50 page) for our readers.

"The report walks you through the ups and downs of the DJIA -- our most sensitive meter of social mood -- and analyzes the trends in popular music and TV shows through periods of positive and negative social mood over the past century. It reveals how social mood as reflected in the stock market actually defines popular culture."

Download "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" Today!

Accurate Financial Market and Economic Forecasts of 2009

You have the opportunity to help the Market Oracle evaluate the most accurate analysis / forecasts of 2009.

It is easy, just navigate to an article that you deem to be accurate against what has subsequently transpired and hit the VOTE Banner at the top of the page.

Here are a few GOOGLE search pages to help get you started

Articles published between Sept 08 and Sept 09 will be counted, see voting guide here

Market Oracle Certified

Also coming in January 2010 will be the Market Oracle certified designations which will aim to both award authors and help readers more easily determine higher quality content. All analysts will be eligible for certification (excluding me) on the basis of article ratings, popularity and end of year votes, with the details to be finalised by early January.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15764.html

Your inflation mega-trend investing analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

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Comments

AM
15 Dec 09, 11:09
Dollar Index

Nadeem,

Now that the dollar index is above 77 today, could tell us your thoughts on where you see the dollar index targetting?

In particular, what are your views on cable in the short, medium and long term given the current threat to UKs AAA status?

Regards

AM


MKC
16 Dec 09, 04:42
Dollar Index

I endorse AM's comment.


Nadeem_Walayat
16 Dec 09, 06:21
USD

Hi

Intraday 77.09 does not constitute a break, have to allow for slippage. But yes we are pretty close to confirming the first buy trigger for a trend towards initial objective of 84 (as per prev analysis).

GBP will follow as part of inflation mega-trend, long-term is bearish for sterling, degree to which depends on ongoing competitive devaluations.


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