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Financial Markets Marching Towards Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes During 2010

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 16, 2010 - 09:33 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis weeks devastating Haiti earthquake illustrates that no matter how bad our financial and economic problems are they are nothing, a mere inconvenience when compared against how bad things truly could be as we continue to live protected, sheltered and privileged lives some distance from the difficult existence that nature has to offer.


Early in the week I completed the third in the series of important analysis which culminated in a detailed interest rate forecast trend for 2010 and into mid 2011 -

As a final conclusion, I expect a presently petrified Bank of England to be gradually forced by the market to start raising the UK Base interest rate in small steps of 0.25%, with the first rate rise probably coming just before release of Q2 GDP Data (July) in June 2010 i.e. after the next election deadline and then followed in August and September 2010 on further indicators of improving economic activity. My concluding target is 3% by mid 2011, the difficulty is in saying where rates will be at the end of 2010 as the range is 1.5% to 2%.

UK Interest Rates Forecast 2010-11: UK interest Rates to Start Rising From Mid 2010 and Continue into end of 2010 to Target 1.75% / 2%, Continue Higher into Mid 2011 to Target 3%.

In the coming week the implications of all three pieces of analysis and concluding forecasts for inflation, economy and interest rates will be employed towards generating higher probability forecasts for the financial markets including stocks and commodities that will form part of the inflation mega-trend ebook that I hope to complete by NEXT weekend. The ebook will be FREE and made available via email, as you are already subscribed then you will receive the download url by email next weekend. If you are not already subscribed then do so now as it is 100% FREE, with the only requirement being a valid email address.

In the meantime we have managed to secure FREE access for all our readers to Robert Prechter's Most Important Investment Report for 2010, a 13 page report. It is available for a limited-time only due to its timely content so Download the Free Report Now.

Source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16534.html

Your analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression which triggered a series of panic interest rate cuts all the way to 0.5% by March 2009 and they have stayed there right into the start of 2010. This in-depth analysis is third in a series of analysis that seeks to generate accurate forecasts for UK Inflation, GDP Growth and Interest Rates for 2010 and beyond.

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2. Why Deflation is Not Ahead

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There is a debate going on within pro-gold circles: inflation or deflation. The deflationists predict that price deflation is inevitable and imminent. The inflationists insist that mass inflation is inevitable, but maybe not imminent.

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3. The Recession Is Over, the Economic Depression Just Beginning

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In late 2009, former Merrill Lynch economist, now with the Canadian firm, Gluskin Sheff, said the following:

"The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said this repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the (post-WW II) recessions were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses."

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Marc Faber discusses the stock market and the economic outlook for 2010 and concerned about the U.S. Debt bubble.

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The Most Important Report of 2010

 

5. Gold Bounces Off Long-term Critical Suppport Trend Line to Target $1575 2010

By: Merv_Burak

The first full week of trading in three weeks has been kind of positive but not all that bullish.  Speculators are slowly dragging themselves away from their vacation spots and greater trading activity is expected over the next few weeks.  For now, let’s see where we are.

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6. Economy Forecast 2010 the Uncertain Statistical Economic Recovery

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"Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We'll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief; we are blindest to precisely whatever might be most illuminating." - from Transition, by Iain M. Banks

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7. Doug Casey Says Stock Market Set to Crash

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L: So, what's on your mind this week, Doug? I understand you've had a "guru moment"…

Doug: Well, it's nothing but a gut feeling, but I think the stock market is riding for a big fall this year.

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8. Dollar Trend and Gold Technicals and Hint at Further Downside

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This past week the dollar did not seem to have as great of an impact on other markets as it usually does. Some investors believe a decoupling is taking place. I’m not convinced, at least not yet.

One week does not constitute a trend. The dollar’s December rally did not negatively affect the stock market, however, that may not continue to be the case. Time will tell. As the charts below show, the dollar has formed a falling flag. Whether the dollar breaks up or down out of the flag will have repercussions in other markets.  

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