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Financial Markets Marching Towards Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes During 2010

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 16, 2010 - 09:33 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis weeks devastating Haiti earthquake illustrates that no matter how bad our financial and economic problems are they are nothing, a mere inconvenience when compared against how bad things truly could be as we continue to live protected, sheltered and privileged lives some distance from the difficult existence that nature has to offer.


Early in the week I completed the third in the series of important analysis which culminated in a detailed interest rate forecast trend for 2010 and into mid 2011 -

As a final conclusion, I expect a presently petrified Bank of England to be gradually forced by the market to start raising the UK Base interest rate in small steps of 0.25%, with the first rate rise probably coming just before release of Q2 GDP Data (July) in June 2010 i.e. after the next election deadline and then followed in August and September 2010 on further indicators of improving economic activity. My concluding target is 3% by mid 2011, the difficulty is in saying where rates will be at the end of 2010 as the range is 1.5% to 2%.

UK Interest Rates Forecast 2010-11: UK interest Rates to Start Rising From Mid 2010 and Continue into end of 2010 to Target 1.75% / 2%, Continue Higher into Mid 2011 to Target 3%.

In the coming week the implications of all three pieces of analysis and concluding forecasts for inflation, economy and interest rates will be employed towards generating higher probability forecasts for the financial markets including stocks and commodities that will form part of the inflation mega-trend ebook that I hope to complete by NEXT weekend. The ebook will be FREE and made available via email, as you are already subscribed then you will receive the download url by email next weekend. If you are not already subscribed then do so now as it is 100% FREE, with the only requirement being a valid email address.

In the meantime we have managed to secure FREE access for all our readers to Robert Prechter's Most Important Investment Report for 2010, a 13 page report. It is available for a limited-time only due to its timely content so Download the Free Report Now.

Source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16534.html

Your analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Featured Analysis of the Week

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1. UK Interest Rate Forecast 2010 and 2011

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The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression which triggered a series of panic interest rate cuts all the way to 0.5% by March 2009 and they have stayed there right into the start of 2010. This in-depth analysis is third in a series of analysis that seeks to generate accurate forecasts for UK Inflation, GDP Growth and Interest Rates for 2010 and beyond.

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L: So, what's on your mind this week, Doug? I understand you've had a "guru moment"…

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One week does not constitute a trend. The dollar’s December rally did not negatively affect the stock market, however, that may not continue to be the case. Time will tell. As the charts below show, the dollar has formed a falling flag. Whether the dollar breaks up or down out of the flag will have repercussions in other markets.  

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