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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Army of Estate Agents Recruited for UK House Prices Boom, Election May 2014?

Housing-Market / UK Housing Sep 13, 2013 - 06:52 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

The UK's latest better than expected unemployment figures reveal that Britain's estate agency firms have been engaged in what can only be termed as 'panic hiring' as the firms ramp up operations in preparations for the return of a UK house prices boom by hiring more than 77,000 estate agents over the past year to a new record high of 562,000 estate agents, 16% more than a year ago and about 25% of ALL jobs created!


Therefore like virulent weeds, the people of Britain should now expect FOR SALE signs appearing all over the place.

Whilst estate agents may be the most hated by the British public as a consequence of prevalent bad practice and over charging, but the news of the recruitment of an army of estate agents represents just one more sign for an imminent house prices boom!

UK House Prices Forecast

My latest in-depth analysis of Mid August in the UK housing bull market series (UK House Prices Bull Market Soaring Momentum, 10% Inflation by October?) warned to expect an imminent boom in house prices, where my expectations were for house prices momentum to rise from 4.6% (July data) to at least 10% for October data, and reach 12%+ by January 2014 data as excerpted below:

In terms of the bull markets current momentum, the UK housing market is accelerating towards an annual inflation rate of at least 10% per annum. Given the markets current trend trajectory, UK house prices could be rising by 10% per annum as early as on release of the Halifax data (NSA) for October 2013 (in November), and continue accelerating to a rate of more than 12% per annum for January 2014 data (released Feb 2014).

And as illustrated by the below graph, I expect a 10%+ per annum house prices boom be sustained into at least Mid 2014.

Uk house prices forecast

Also see my recent UK Housing Market Final Warning video -

Conservative Party Secret Election Boom Strategy?

When house prices boom so does the ECONOMY! George Osbourne appears not to be taking any chances as he is well ahead of schedule for an May 2015 election economic boom that is still near 2 years away. Which raises the question, could the next general election come a year earlier? Is that the Conservative secret plan for a May 2014 election? For that is what is implied by an imminent housing market boom that will feed into an economic boom going into Mid 2014!

The odds are still heavily stacked against a Conservative outright victory with a hung parliament outcome being the most probable, however, if I were Labour or a Liberal Democrat then I would be very worried, especially by early 2014 when house prices will be rising by 12% per annum and I therefore expect GDP growth for 2014 to be probably turn out to be twice today's consensus growth forecasts of 2% for 2014 (CBI) i.e. 4%+ GDP for 2014!

A Quick Recap of the Trend Towards a House Prices Boom

The actual signal for change from an embryonic bull market into a bull market proper came in September 2012 following the governments announcements proposing to double permitted developments for home owners, which had the near immediate effect of changing housing market sentiment long before the first building works could be commenced, as it would trigger demand for property with a view to extending as well as owners seeking to contract builders as I pointed out at the time right at the bottom of the UK housing market for 2012.

06 Sep 2012 - Super Mario Draghi Triggers Stocks Stealth Bull Market Rallies to New Bull Market Highs

This years convergence towards housing market bottoms such as the UK and US presenting one of those once in a couple of decades opportunities to climb aboard what still are embryonic bull markets, just as I strongly suggested the birth of a new multi-year stocks stealth bull market in March 2009

08 Sep 2012 - UK Home Extension Planning Rules Relaxed to Boost Economy, Trigger Housing Bull Market

I am continuing to see positive signs towards a multi-year bull market, so I am giving you another head start on an emerging probable multi-year bull market in UK housing.

The announcement was followed by further government measures that would boost sentiment long before the policies would be implemented in any significant number such as George Osbourne's March budget announcement to effectively create a UK subprime mortgage market by paying 20% of the deposit on first new builds and from 1st of January 2014 all properties upto a value of £600k.

20 Mar 2013 - George Osborne Boosts UK Subprime Housing Market Ahead of Election Boom

Creating a UK Subprime Housing Bubble

The chancellors announcement of £130 billion mortgage guarantees effectively amounts to seeking to ultimately create a UK version of U.S. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that will eventually blow up in spectacular style as more and more house buying voters expect to be bribed at each election and therefore the £130 billion will mushroom to one day stand at well over £1 trillion of liabilities, off course the bust will come AFTER the next housing boom, so this and the next government need not worry themselves for the consequences of creating a UK subprime housing bubble as the consequences of which tax payers will be liable for in a decade or so's time which means another financial crisis as this repeats the SAME mistakes of mortgage backed securities i.e. the lenders are not liable for the risks so can take on more risky loans for commission as the liabilities will be with tax payers.

This scheme will be extended from the 1st of Jan 2014 to allow prospective home buyers to buy ANY property (not just new builds) with the government financing 20% of a deposit upto £600k, or £120k of tax payer money going towards EACH prospective buyers home purchase, which EFFECTS market sentiment in the PRESENT.

For possible bull market investing opportunities see - 03 Jun 2013 - UK Housing Bull Market Opportunities In Britain's Multiculturalism Immigration Crisis.

Ensure you remain subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE Newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed forecasts on the unfolding housing bull market.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42260.html

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2013 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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