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Ukraine Civil War - Russia's Iraq $1 trillion 10 Year War About to Start?

Politics / Ukraine Civil War May 05, 2014 - 11:59 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The deaths in Odessa were an inevitable consequences of over 2 months of Russian dark military forces having been busy sowing the seeds of dissent right across South Ukraine, an area that would never have proven as easy to digest as had been the peninsula of Crimea without first setting Ukrainian against Ukrainian.


Odessa - The Day Ukraine Died

Ukrainians killing Ukrainians resulting in over 40 civilian deaths most of whom were burned to death further escalating tensions is playing in the hands of Putin's grand plan that right from the beginning had been for the division of and annexation of approx 50% of the land mass of Ukraine from Odessa in the south west to Kharkov in the north east before the fledgling Ukrainian revolution interim government had been able to hold elections which are scheduled to take place on 25th of May but are increasingly becoming an near impossibility in near 1/2 the area of the country and thus would not be recognised by Russia and at least 1/3rd of itself Ukraine.

The trend towards a Ukrainian Civil war and Russian military intervention continues as I have warned of several times to expect since February where at the time even the loss of Crimea was seen as being absurd.

21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK

What was unimaginable a few weeks ago has now become a crisis situation of mounting deaths, where with each death Ukraine takes a further step towards leaping over the edge of and into the abyss of where the likes of Syria stands today, as the consequence of what happens when nations rip themselves apart.

Ukraine tearing itself apart has huge implications for european stability as the conflict risks sparking unrest in bordering states most of which have their own separatists movements, especially Russia which therefore looks set to intervene militarily.

24 Feb 2014 - Scottish Independence Economic Consequences for England, UK, Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016?

UKRAINE 2014, BRITAIN 2016?

The real problem of Scottish Independence is as I have highlighted several times in recent articles is that it would open up a pandora's box that would encourage other parts of the UK to start their own separatist movements which would disrupt economic activity right across the UK, and that is the real danger of Scotland leaving the UK, and not its net economic impact on the UK.

Ukraine illustrates what tends to happen when countries start to tear themselves apart as peaceful demonstrations in Ukraine's capital city Kiev of barely a few weeks ago have fast descended into chaos towards outright civil war as several regions in the north-west such as Lviv declare independence, whilst the south-east stands behind its democratically elected President who fled the capital with loyal security forces barely 24 hours ago.

04 Mar 2014 - Czar Putin's Annexation of Crimea Ukraine, Lesson for Independent Scotland?

The ease to which the Russian military descended upon Crimea and several eastern parts of Ukraine reeks of pre-planning of several several weeks if not months. Therefore Russia is not just reacting to events in Kiev but will likely have orchestrated the whole build up including the events that saw the Berkut special police open fire on protestors in Kiev, as all part of Putin's plan for the dismemberment of Ukraine before Ukraine forms closer ties with the European Union, ultimately joining the EU and NATO.

Russia's invasion of Crimea which given the continuing build up on east Ukraine's border that is is said to number more than 150,000 troops and equipment will likely culminate in a wholesale invasion and land grab of approx 1/3rd of Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile whilst we should always take western mainstream press reporting with a giant pinch of salt, nevertheless the degree to which RT (Russian Tyranny) News engages in newspeak is on a whole different level that wholesale swallows the vomit of lies that spew out Czar Putin's mouth in justification of the invasion of Ukraine, where NONE of Czar Putin's statements are backed by any facts on the ground.

The bottom line is that no one that appears on Russian Tyranny (RT) News has any credibility as they are effectively on the payroll of Czar Putin's propaganda ministry to pump out worthless garbage, be it the likes of Max Keiser pumping the Bitcoin crypto-scam in an attempt at under-mining the dollar or a myriad of RT News presenters justifying the invasion of Ukraine with bare faced lies.

For Putin to be able to instigate his blitzkrieg invasion (lightening war) he needed to lay the ground by not just building one pretext but by encouraging a series of escalating pretexts right across Ukraine all designed to foster the long planned for land invasion and occupation of the whole of southern Ukraine which in early April I suggested was likely to take place before the end of this month (May 2014).

08 Apr 2014 - Donetsk Crimea 2.0 - Russia Ukraine Invasion and Annexation Before End of May 2014

Time-Line for Annexation of South Ukraine

The Donetsk russian rebels announcing an independence referendum to be held on 11th May sets a time-line for the deadline for the next annexation of Ukraine which will be with or without the consent of the local people i.e. the people of eastern Ukraine only have the choice of either a relatively bloodless annexation Crimea style or a bloody annexation following an estimated one hundred thousand Russian troops flooding over the border that will undoubtedly prompt at least limited resistance from Ukrainian military forces.

If anything the time line for invasion and annexation could be greatly accelerated as Russia attempts to repeat the Crimea blue print of a lightening land grab followed by bogus referendums of not just East Ukraine but the whole of the South Ukraine where the military occupation aspects could be completed within a matter of days. This is because in strategic terms to create a viable state from Moldavia Trans-Dniester in the west through Crimea in the middle, and all the way to the eastern border with Russia, then so would all of this area of Ukraine need to be physically connected hence why the land grab would include the whole of South Ukraine and not just the eastern bordering regions as I originally warned of in Mid February.

However, it is inconceivable that the theft of South Ukraine would be bloodless, as the latest news illustrates of attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to seize back buildings from separatists in East Ukraine.

The bottom line is that Czar Putin does not care about how many thousands of civilians or solider's would die, all he cares about is that would he be able to get away with it ? And the answer he got from Crimea 1.0 was YES.

RT (Russia Tyranny) News continues to play its Russian state propaganda role with near 24/7 newsspeak of painting a picture of open rebellion, disunity and a fragmenting state as Russian speaking peoples are being subjected to neo-nazis Right Sector assaults right across Ukraine, as the bogeymen sent down from Maidan square to every corner of Ukraine to torture and kill Russian speaking peoples that the Odessa deaths play right into the narrative of. When the truth is that the vast majority of the local populations want to remain part of the Ukraine and fear what Putin's Russia has in store for them.

So Odessa marks just the latest escalation towards Putin's final solution as the weak inexperienced Kiev government continues to be played like puppets as its military forces half heartedly react to Russian agitants that usually results in a state of paralysis where rather than reinforcing the stability of the state Ukrainian soldiers have been seen countless times handing over their arms to the Russian speaking agitators. No matter what action Ukraine's military forces take ultimately they cannot win, if they do nothing than the Russian mobs increasingly organise self rule as a prelude to declarations of independence, if they act to reassert state control than inevitably civilians will die and the Russian mobs further organise into self defence forces armed and supported by Russian special forces such as those that have been shooting down several Ukrainian army helicopters with ground to air missiles.

The seeds have been sown for a Russian invasion that will likely take place before the end of May and against which the Ukrainian army will be no match, it will be destroyed in days with Russian tanks likely rolling down the streets of Kiev just as took place in Baghdad, Iraq with the blitzkrieg American invasion.

And so Czar Putin will stand on an Russian air craft carrier in the Black Sea declaring "Mission Accomplished". However, without having learned any of the painful lessons taught to the US and Britain following their illegal invasion of Iraq that resulted in much loss of blood and treasure, despite the initial military campaign having resulted in what seemed like a decisive victory.

Czar Putin has put Russia on a similar path that following its Blitzkrieg victory will likely find itself mired in a costly $1trillion unwinnable war, as Western governments Afghanistan style seek to fund the Ukrainian insurgency against Russian occupation that will still worse for Russia spill over its border into the unstable caucuses that could even risk the break up the Russian Federation as several regions seek to take advantage of Russia's New Afghanistan by escalating their own breakaway insurgencies and that is where Russia will stand about a decade from now as it fights to stay in tact just as Ukraine is today.

Cannot happen?

We'll it was the unwinnable Afghan war that put a dozen nails in the Soviet Union's coffin.

In fact the reason why the United States actual actions to the Russian Ukraine offensive are mild is that they can better see where this is heading given America's disastrous Iraq experience, so fully understand the depth of the hole that Russia is digging itself into. It appears lessons are only learned when they are very, very painful, so perhaps it is time for Russia to learn its next lesson?

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article45471.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of four ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series.that can be downloaded for Free.

The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

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Comments

R.E.B
05 May 14, 20:33
Pyrrhic Putin

Yes there is no doubt in my mind that this moribund cold warrior who cannot get his mindset out of the last century will lead Russia into the abyss. The Russian people are all cheery now at their glorious leaders push to rebuild the Soviet landmass, but when the bill comes due they will have a different view. What good did their vast empire do them last time round? This is why the US will NOT become a third world country as is being touted by certain Nostradamus wannabes on the internet. The truth is Americas economic collapse will be accompanied by even greater stupidity on the part of Russia, China and Iran etc. that will prevent them taking full advantage, and allow the US (and the west generally) to rebuild, leaving dreams of world domination unfulfilled yet again, paving the way for Putin to become a footnote in history.


Kasenia
05 May 14, 21:12
Russian Plot

I am from the central Russian-speaking part of Ukraine. I think, that there is a war, that Russia is plotting against Ukraine using special froces and agents on our territory. This war is not about language, nationality or culture. This war is about resourses like gas in Sloviansk, territories near the sea like Crimea and Odessa, and influence in the region.

Kasenia


Also
05 May 14, 22:53
Central Ukraine

Interesting... Makes sense, sort of like what Bush did to us with Iraq. It's funny how none of the major news outlets even here in the states never discuss this perspective, even though most conflicts are fought over natural resources. I did think that it was Putin's endgame to secure the naval port in Sevastopol, and he realized the military significance of the peninsula.

What is the sentiment from Central Ukraine like? Is it heavily pro-Russian, moderate, or pro-Kiev? Has the state-run Russian media reached your region yet, and is the government in Kiev really a facist Junta? It's interesting to hear from someone in the middle of the conflict that is rational, and doesn't need a brick or ski mask to express an opinion.

It is my belief that Russia may be trying to expand it's borders by pushing into Ukraine, because as it stand now militarily, Russia's borders are geographically "soft" and susceptible to outside invasion. Do you think there's any truth to that?

Also


Rechendorff
06 May 14, 00:57
Ukraine Pretext

Well the pretext that Russia will invade to protect ethnic Russians is at least viable and has a ring of some legitimacy as opposed to invading Iraq because of WMD than Saddam's support of Al Qaeda, than to bring Democracy; All of which were false.

My belief is Putin decided that he did not wish to have Russia completely surrounded by NATO on its boarders and Bush Jr.'s goal was to have a large military presence next to Iran.

There is the argument for one's national interest and one for moral and ethical interests but unfortunately they are sometimes mutually exclusive. Let us hope common sense will prevail by all parties involved. The stakes are just to high not to find a peaceful solution.


Peter555
06 May 14, 09:57
Ukraine Coup

It seems to me that its the Ukranian unelected interim prime minister that is causing all the trouble and do not forget there government was formed after an armed coup.

Peter


Yuriy
12 May 14, 21:30
to Peter555

The government was formed by an elected parliament until snap elections on 25 May.

And not a coup but a peaceful demonstration for 3 months during the freezing winter.

Prime minister is not causing anything - Putin have planned everything before the revolution. He continues the war right now.

If someone thinks that US is evil - I wish you never lived in USSR or current Russia. Why do you think people emigrating from Russia in millions? Why Chechnya fought a war for independence with Russia for 12 years loosing 30% of population?

Everyone likes to mention US wars, here you go USSR/Russian list since 1945:

-1956 invasion of Hungary

-1962 Cuban missile crisis

-1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia

-1969 China clash

-1956 to 75 proxy war in Vietnam

-1978 helped Vietnam invade Cambodia

-1979 Afghanistan

-1994 Chechnya

-1998 2nd invasion of now independent Chechnya

-2008 Invasion of Georgia

-2014 Invasion into Ukraine


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