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Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast

Politics / Scotland Sep 18, 2014 - 05:54 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


Today approx 9% of the British electorate will turn out to vote on whether the United Kingdom is to be dissolved, of which approx marginally more than half will decide the outcome of the Scottish Independence / Separation referendum. However, whilst the latest opinion polls continue to paint a picture of a too close to call outcome as they oscillate in a tight band of between 48% and 52% for either YES or NO depending on which individual poll one looks at, instead my consistent view has remained unchanged since the start of this year that Scotland will overwhelmingly vote NO, and that the probability for such an outcome remains at a high 70%.

Answering Why the Opinion Polls YES / NO Are So Close

So why such a huge difference between a highly probable NO vote and the opinion polls that are flittering between either outcome. For the answer we need to look at what started to change from late August that has resulted in such a tightening of the opinion polls.

The SNP not surprising state that the tightening in the polls is as a result of as many as 1 million new voters joining the electoral roll who predominantly back the YES cause tipping the polls in the SNP's favour.

However the truth is one of an increasingly threatening nationalist campaign of vandalism, bullying and intimidation of NO supporters who fearful of being shouted down have become subdued in expressing their opinions to others, the silent majority.

As an example a survey by YouGov found that 46% of NO supporters felt personally threatened by the YES campaign, and 49% of NO voters had not always felt able to speak about their views on the referendum.

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

The actual result should be known by between 5am and 6am Friday.

My best advice for all English living in Scotland is to try and learn to speak with a Scottish accent, else you are increasingly going to be subject to prejudice as the nationalism genie is well and truly out of the bottle! And its going to get worse, a LOT worse!






Financial Markets

Following a relatively strong NO vote expect a strong rebound for UK stocks, bonds and off course the British Pound that I expect will recoup all of the recent downtrend and target a rally to at least £/$1.80 by the end of this year.

Why Scotland Will Still Become Independent

Whilst a NO vote will prevent the United Kingdom from immediately disintegrating, unfortunately the damage has been done by the three westminister clowns who have promised DevoMax to Scotland which means England's wage slaves will be forced to pay even higher taxes for Scotland's socialists to squander on a bloated public sector and a whole host of freebies that would likely add another £500 on per capita spending to the current subsidy of £1600 per head (£1730 taking account of all accounts).

Source ONS

The bottom line is that there is going to be a day of reckoning for the Westminister clowns as England is no longer going to put up with the current gross inequality between the UK's four countries and will demand equity, a fair share, and devolved powers which means an end to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland's subsidies, which ironically means it will be the English who will END the United Kingdom but on their terms and not on today's Scottish Independence blackmail.

For more facts on why Scotland will vote NO so as to maintain their English subsidy see my recent articles and videos rather than SNP delusional propaganda such as that Scotland will share the British Pound in a Union when that is NEVER going to happen as the people of England would NEVER allow it, and would even go so far as electing a UKIP government to prevent such an outcome should the westminister party leaders betray their pledges of NO currency sharing union with an Independent Scotland.

Source and comments:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2014 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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18 Sep 14, 10:36
Vote YES today!

You are wrong again!

My fellow scots will Vote YES today for freedom from 300 years of westminister dictatorship!

The high turnout of over 90% will ensure that happens.

Scots gain their freedom today!


18 Sep 14, 11:49
If Scotland Votes YES

Just a only if thought looking into the future . If Scotland votes yes and i have a feeling they will . What happens if they go into the Eu . And we vote to come out in England.and Wales and Northern Ireland want to say in the Eu . What type of deal will we have to set up with the EU . I know we will make trade agreements with the rest of the world. But if the EU will not give us a good deal. And we start dealing big time with Russia and China and we start making defence deal with them . the mind boggles because we will after think about Englands interest and not Europe's interest. Just a thought

D Johnson

18 Sep 14, 13:43
Good luck, Scotland

Good luck, Scotland.

All you'll get from the U.K. are vicious Tories or the Labor Party's cynical neoliberals making decisions for you.

Dare to say Yes!


18 Sep 14, 17:20
Time Poll - YES Vote 57%

Time readers online poll says YES will easily win todays poll.

A total of 16,418 reader votes were tallied, of which 9,436 (57.5%) were for Scotland’s secession from the U.K. and 6,982 (42.5%) were for the maintenance of the 307-year-old union.

18 Sep 14, 17:48
Gordon Brown Won It for NO

Gordon Brown may have swung it for the No vote. His threat to stand for the Scottish Parliament should the vote be Yes, seems to have had the desired effect of converting many Yes and undecided voters to No. It seems that they are willing to stay as part of the UK if it would mean that this man is denied the opportunity to once more wreak havoc upon the finances, pensions and health service of our country. The NHS is very important to the people of Scotland. We must do all that we can to prevent Gordon Brown from being allowed to continue in Scotland. with his privatisation polices which have caused so much harm to the UK. Under 13 years of a Labour Government, the debt of the NHS to the private sector exploded due to their reliance on borrowing through the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). The financial burden of which will affect us for decades to come.

G Artisso,

18 Sep 14, 18:31
Yes Campaign

In my humble opinion the whole YES campaign seems to be directed at the under age kids who have been given the vote JUST on this occasion and also to the disgruntled Scots who believe they have been badly treated by "England" - it's all a load of bollacks with no ADULT arguments at all!

18 Sep 14, 19:20
Time Magazine Poll 57% YES


That just goes to show what a load of BS opinion polls are.

There is NO doubt in my mind that NO will win as when all things are considered the probability has remained a constant HIGH 70%!

I will make a lot of money on this referrandum :) And Time magazine will have egg on their face.



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