Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote ForecastPolitics / Scotland Sep 18, 2014 - 05:54 AM GMT
Today approx 9% of the British electorate will turn out to vote on whether the United Kingdom is to be dissolved, of which approx marginally more than half will decide the outcome of the Scottish Independence / Separation referendum. However, whilst the latest opinion polls continue to paint a picture of a too close to call outcome as they oscillate in a tight band of between 48% and 52% for either YES or NO depending on which individual poll one looks at, instead my consistent view has remained unchanged since the start of this year that Scotland will overwhelmingly vote NO, and that the probability for such an outcome remains at a high 70%.
Answering Why the Opinion Polls YES / NO Are So Close
So why such a huge difference between a highly probable NO vote and the opinion polls that are flittering between either outcome. For the answer we need to look at what started to change from late August that has resulted in such a tightening of the opinion polls.
The SNP not surprising state that the tightening in the polls is as a result of as many as 1 million new voters joining the electoral roll who predominantly back the YES cause tipping the polls in the SNP's favour.
However the truth is one of an increasingly threatening nationalist campaign of vandalism, bullying and intimidation of NO supporters who fearful of being shouted down have become subdued in expressing their opinions to others, the silent majority.
As an example a survey by YouGov found that 46% of NO supporters felt personally threatened by the YES campaign, and 49% of NO voters had not always felt able to speak about their views on the referendum.
Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!
The actual result should be known by between 5am and 6am Friday.
My best advice for all English living in Scotland is to try and learn to speak with a Scottish accent, else you are increasingly going to be subject to prejudice as the nationalism genie is well and truly out of the bottle! And its going to get worse, a LOT worse!
Following a relatively strong NO vote expect a strong rebound for UK stocks, bonds and off course the British Pound that I expect will recoup all of the recent downtrend and target a rally to at least £/$1.80 by the end of this year.
Why Scotland Will Still Become Independent
Whilst a NO vote will prevent the United Kingdom from immediately disintegrating, unfortunately the damage has been done by the three westminister clowns who have promised DevoMax to Scotland which means England's wage slaves will be forced to pay even higher taxes for Scotland's socialists to squander on a bloated public sector and a whole host of freebies that would likely add another £500 on per capita spending to the current subsidy of £1600 per head (£1730 taking account of all accounts).
The bottom line is that there is going to be a day of reckoning for the Westminister clowns as England is no longer going to put up with the current gross inequality between the UK's four countries and will demand equity, a fair share, and devolved powers which means an end to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland's subsidies, which ironically means it will be the English who will END the United Kingdom but on their terms and not on today's Scottish Independence blackmail.
For more facts on why Scotland will vote NO so as to maintain their English subsidy see my recent articles and videos rather than SNP delusional propaganda such as that Scotland will share the British Pound in a Union when that is NEVER going to happen as the people of England would NEVER allow it, and would even go so far as electing a UKIP government to prevent such an outcome should the westminister party leaders betray their pledges of NO currency sharing union with an Independent Scotland.
- Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?
- Bank of England Panic! Scottish Independence Bank Run Already Underway!
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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