Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Mar 15, 2015 - 08:32 AM GMT

Hung Parliament is NOT a Certainty!

Opinion polls obsessed journalists are continuously number crunching each weeks polls into seats per party election forecasts that are then liberally regurgitated across the mainstream media. That latest such analysis is signaling that Labour has lost its most seats lead of only a week ago as now the Conservatives are being forecast to form the largest party in another hung parliament. However, in terms of extrapolating the polling trends into election day then the consensus view for another hung parliament can no longer be certain, as the polling trend implies that the Conservatives could win an outright election victory as my original analysis of over a year ago concluded (30th Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015).

The following is a list of the current state of seats forecasts by various popular mostly mainstream media funded election sites that are set against my own forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

	Market Oracle	May2015 .com	Electoralcalculus .co.uk	ElectionForecast .co.uk	The Guardian
	28th Feb	12th Mar	14th Mar	11th Mar	11th Mar
Conservative	296	281	262	295	279
Labour	262	263	301	267	266
SNP	35	55	46	42	52
Lib Dem	30	24	17	24	27
UKIP	5	4	1	1	4
Others	22

The following are individual forecaster trends with brief comments.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

	MO 28th Feb	12th Mar	5th Mar	26th Feb	10th Feb
Conservative	296	281	255	270	270
Labour	262	263	283	271	272
SNP	35	55	55	56	56
Lib Dem	30	24		26	25
UKIP	5	4		4	4
Others	22

For several months had put Labour in the lead but have now are starting to put the Conservatives in the lead, though within a tight 9 seat swing.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	14th Mar	9th Mar	27th Feb	30th Jan
Conservative	296	262	267	265	265
Labour	262	301	298	301	297
SNP	35	46	55	46	50
Lib Dem	30	17		15	17
UKIP	5	1		1	1
Others	22

Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour

ElectionForecast.co.uk

	MO 28th Feb	11th Mar	25th Feb	13th Feb
Conservative	296	295	284	280
Labour	262	267	279	283
SNP	35	42	39	37
Lib Dem	30	24	25	27
UKIP	5	1	1	2
Others	22

Their most recent update now most closely matches my forecast of 28th Feb 2015.

The Guardian

	MO 28th Feb	11th Mar	27th Feb	28th Jan
Conservative	296	279	276	273
Labour	262	266	271	273
SNP	35	52	51	49
Lib Dem	30	27	27	28
UKIP	5	4	3	5
Others	22

Again another mainstream forecaster that is starting to give the edge to the Conservatives, though here the swing between major parties is an even tighter more marginal 6 seats.

Analysis

The over-riding expectations are for the Conservatives to form the largest party in an hung parliament. Though as of writing no forecaster has matched or surpassed my expectations for the Tories to win at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

If the current trend continues then it is possible that the Conservatives could win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are virtually ON TRACK to achieve the forecast outcome for an outright election victory on a majority of about 30 seats which NO ONE, and I mean no serious commentators / analysts has or is currently advocating.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis that concluded in the following detailed seats per party forecast:

28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

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Source and comments - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49839.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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