Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold Price Forecast 2018 - February Update - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Trump Bubble Bursts, Stock Market Panic Dow 1175 Point Crash Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge - Nadeem_Walayat
6.US Treasury Bonds: Fuse to Light the Bonfire - Jim_Willie_CB
7.Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van - Jeff_Berwick
8.Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis - B.R. Hollister
10.Stock Market Analysis: Baying for Blood - Abalgorithm
Last 7 days
5 Reasons Why Commodities Are the Investment Place to be in 2018 - 18th Feb 18
1 Week Later, Stock, Bond Market Risk Remains ‘On’ as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On - 17th Feb 18
Crude Oil Prices: A Case of Dueling Narratives? - 17th Feb 18
Free 1000 Youtube Subscribers Services - YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow Test - 17th Feb 18
How to Trade as We Near March Stock Market Top - 16th Feb 18
Bitcoin as Poison - 16th Feb 18
GDX Gold ETF Weathers Stock Market Selloff - 16th Feb 18
Casino Statistics and Demographics - 16th Feb 18
IS Today Thee Stock Market Turn Day? - 16th Feb 18
Huge SMIGGLE Shopping HAUL, Pencil Cases, Drinks Bottles, Back Packs, Toys.... - 16th Feb 18
Tesla Cash Keeps Burning at $320 a Share - 15th Feb 18
Big Conflict Ahead in the Financial Markets - 15th Feb 18
Stocks Extend Rally Off Friday's Low, But Short-Term Exhaustion Near - 15th Feb 18
Stock Market Out on a Limb... - 15th Feb 18
Things Only a True Friend Would Say About Gold - 14th Feb 18
Global Debt Crisis II Cometh - 14th Feb 18
Understanding Crude Oil Behavior - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market is Getting Scary... - 14th Feb 18
Stock Market - This Time is Different. Really?! - 13th Feb 18
Gold and Silver Long-term Buy, Short-term Sell Signal - 13th Feb 18
SPX Futures Are Sliding... - 13th Feb 18
Stock Market Topping Process Begins. The Bubble Finds its Pin - 13th Feb 18
Math Behind the Stock Market Crash and What’s Next – PART2 - 13th Feb 18
Gold Stocks Groundhog Week - 13th Feb 18
Platinum Looks Poised for Surprising Gains This Year - 12th Feb 18
Friday's S&P 500 Stock Market Bounce To Continue, But Selling May Resume - 12th Feb 18
The Inflation Trade and Bond Yields Rising Result in Equities Correction - 12th Feb 18
February 2018 Stock Market Crisis – What Next? - 12th Feb 18
How To Profit From The Bitcoin Bloodbath - 12th Feb 18
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach  - 12th Feb 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 12th Feb 18
What Does the Stock Market Decline Mean for Gold - 12th Feb 18
Addicted to SMIGGLE Mega Review, Pencil Cases, Stationary, Back Packs, Drinking Bottles, Toys... - 12th Feb 18
Best Cash ISA Savings Account for Soaring UK Inflation - February 2018 - 11th Feb 18
The Fed’s Impossible Choice, In Three Charts - 11th Feb 18
US Stock Market, Gold, Silver and the Macro Backdrop - 11th Feb 18
After Two weeks of Stock Market Decline, People Are Ssking, “Are We There Yet?” - 11th Feb 18
How to Grow Tomatoes From Seeds, Homegrown Organic Money Saving Gardening - 11th Feb 18
Youtube KILLS ALL Small Channels with New DeMonetization Rules - 11th Feb 18
Lot of Stock Market Damage to Be Caused before New the Fed Chief Will React - 10th Feb 18
Best Ways to Make Money - 10th Feb 18
Stock Market Selling Unleashed! - 10th Feb 18
How to Get Free Youtube Subscribers to Get to 1000, YTpals, Subpals, SubmeNow, Do they Work? - 10th Feb 18
Stock Market Buy or Sell? This Insight May Help You Decide - 9th Feb 18
Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000 - 9th Feb 18
What Is Stock Market Volatility Telling Us Now? - 9th Feb 18
Crude Oil $100 Price in 2019? - 9th Feb 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Urgent Stock Market Message

Election Forecast 2015: The Day Labour Lost the General Election

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Mar 16, 2015 - 06:24 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

There is one unique thing about the Labour party that stands out more than anything else, which is that the Labour party with its block votes system that heavily dilutes party member votes to just 1/3rd representation, is usually hell bent on choosing as leader the least electable in terms of prime ministerial material that they can find. Against the 1980's Iron Lady Labour first had the hard to understand what he was talking about Michael Foot, soon followed by 'Were All Right' Kinnock, and then looked set to be destined for another failure under John Smith, election defeat only averted by his untimely death which prompted a battle between Tory Blair and Gordon Brown, luckily for Labour Tory Blair won and so did Labour for the next 3 elections in a row!


However, plotting and scheming Gordon Brown always wanted his turn which eventually came when Tony Blair gave way in mid 2007, just before the economy collapsed and Gordon Brown took the party into the defeat of 2010. Though most Labour MP's at the time knowing how badly they had screwed up the economy were actually relieved not to win that year as they looked to the Tories to make all of the painful decisions to fix their mess which meant that Labour would win an resounding victory in 2015.

Clutching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Following abandoning government in 2010, Labour then had an golden opportunity to plan for their next government in 2015, all they had to do was to take their time to choose a new leader who would appeal to the voters and then sit back and profit from the Coalitions painful attempts at fixing a near bankrupted economy, where 5 years of economic austerity virtually guaranteed that Labour would win in 2015.

However, as I mentioned at the start, Labour is good at choosing the WRONG leader and the following video shows exactly what happened in 2010 -

The the highly charismatic clear and present danger to the Tories, David Milliband was beaten by his 'can't even eat a hamburger properly' younger brother, Ed Milliband to audible gasps from the audience. How could David Milliband lose when the majority of party members and MP's voted for him, the answer is the back room deals union block votes, which means those that the likes of the GMB and Unite favour (candidates suck up to the most) get elected as leader.

The most recent party leader popularity polls illustrate the problem Labour has, as an Ipsos Mori poll states only 30% of voters like the labour leader compared to 39% for David Cameron.

Therefore, Labour lost the next election in September 2010 which sowed the seeds for the slow evaporation of any certainty of Labour winning the next general election, as each passing year has seen Labours lead in the polls melt away to now stand approximately where they were on election day 2010!

The problem is the unions, for until Labour makes the change to one member one vote then Labour will nearly always select unelectable unionites who tend to be weak leaders who are subservient to the unions and not priministerial material.

In terms of the election probabilities, Ed Milliband has always worked in the Tories favour, as the more he is seen the more voters are put off from voting Labour to the point today where as my earlier analysis concluded there is now an increasing chance for an outright Conservative election victory, especially as voters have several more weeks of Ed Milliband to look forward to.

15 Mar 2015 - Election Forecast 2015 - Opinion Polls Trending Towards Conservative Outright Win

Hung Parliament is NOT a Certainty!

If the current trend continues then it is possible that the Conservatives could win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are virtually ON TRACK to achieve the forecast outcome for an outright election victory on a majority of about 30 seats which NO ONE, and I mean no serious commentators / analysts has or is currently advocating.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis that concluded in the following detailed seats per party forecast:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules