Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting - Sol_Palha
2.London Housing Market Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash - GoldCore
3.The Plan to Control ALL Your Money is Now at Advanced Stage
4.Why Gold Is Set For An Epic Rally This Spring - James Burgess
5.MR ROBOT NHS Cyber Attack Hack - Why Israel, NSA, CIA and GCHQ are Culpable - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Emmanuel Macron and Banking Elite Win French Presidential Election 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Trend Lines Met, Technical's are Set - US Dollar is Ready to Rally (Elliott Wave Analysis) - Enda_Glynn
8.The Student Debt Servitude Sham - Gordon_T_Long
9.Czar Trump Fires Comey, Terminates Deep State FBI, CIA Director Next? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK Local Elections 2017 - Labour Blood Bath, UKIP Death, Tory June 8th Landslide - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Stock Market Top - Are We There Yet? - 25th May 17
Should I Invest My Fortune in Gold? Inaugural Lecture by Dr Brian Lucey - 25th May 17
USD/CAD Continues Decline - 25th May 17
Bitcoin Price Goes Loco! Surges through $2,500 Despite Unclear Fork Issues - 25th May 17
The US-Saudi Arms Deal - Sordid Saudi Signals - 25th May 17
The No.1 Commodity Play In The World Today - 24th May 17
Marks and Spencer Profits Collapse, Latest Retailer Hit by Brexit Inflation Tsunami 2017 - 24th May 17
Why Online Trading Platforms Are Useful for Everyone - 24th May 17
The Stock Market Will Tank Hard - 24th May 17
It’s Better to Buy Gold & Silver When It DOESN’T Feel Good - 24th May 17
Global Warming - Saving Us From Us - 24th May 17
Stock Market Forecast for Next 3 Months - Video - 23rd May 17
Shale Oil & Gas Production Costs Spiral Higher As Monstrous Decline Rates Eat Into Cash Flows - 23rd May 17
The Only Metal Trump Wants More Than Gold - 23rd May 17
America's Southern Heritage is a Threat to the Deep State - 23rd May 17
Manchester Bombing - ISIS Islamic Terrorist Attack Attempt to Influence BrExit Election - 23rd May 17
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar - 22nd May 17
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave - 22nd May 17
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading - 22nd May 17
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive - 21st May 17
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher - 21st May 17
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status - 21st May 17
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 - 21st May 17
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next - 20th May 17
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! - 20th May 17
How to Get FREE Walkers Crisps Multi-packs! £5 to £28k Pay Packet Promo - 20th May 17
UK BrExit General Election 2017 - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get it Right? - 19th May 17
Gold Mining Junior Stocks GDXJ 2017 Fundamentals - 19th May 17
If China Can Fund Infrastructure With Its Own Credit, So Can We - 19th May 17
Evidence That Stocks are More Overvalued than Ever - 19th May 17
Obamacare May Become Zombiecare In 2018 - 19th May 17
The End of Reflation? Implications for Gold - 19th May 17
Gold and Silver Trading Alert: New Important Technical Development - 19th May 17
Subversion And Constructive Synthesis Of Capitalism And Socialism - 18th May 17
Silver: Train Leaving Station Soon! - 18th May 17
Credit and Volatility Signal That Financial Conditions Are Very Overheated - 18th May 17
Another Stock Market "Minsky Moment" or Will the Markets Calm Down? - 18th May 17
WannaCry Ransomware Virus Is a Globalist False Flag Attack On Bitcoin - 18th May 17
Euro, Stocks, Gold Momentum Extremes All Round! - 18th May 17
US Stock Market Slumps on Establishment / CIA Trump Impeachment Coup Plan - 18th May 17
Tory Landslide, Labour Bloodbath - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get a UK Election Right? - 17th May 17
The stock market sectors which are breaking out in 2017 - 17th May 17
A ‘Must-See’ Chart for Gold and Silver Aficionados  - 17th May 17
Will the SPX Stock Market Final Surge Fail to Appear? - 16th May 17
Claim your FREE copy of Jim Rickards’ explosive book - 16th May 17
GOP Establishment Elite Plots Trump Removal - 16th May 17
Walkers Crisps Pay Packet Cheats, Shoplifters and Staff Conning Customers - 16th May 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Why 95% of Traders Fail

Opinion Polls Forecast Labour SNP LibDem Extreme Hung Parliament Government - Election 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 08, 2015 - 03:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Six days on from the 7 leaders debate and the opinion polls have settled to suggest the worst possible outcome, one of an extreme hung parliament where it is not just that any single party will be unable to form the next government but that neither party will be able to form a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats which means the only workable solution would be a Labour SNP Alliance, that could possibly also include the Liberal Democrats or perhaps Plaid Cymru's 3-6 MP's could be enough to bridge the gap to the 326 seat majority magic number.


In my opinion a Labour / Nationalists government would be a disastrous outcome for Britain as the SNP would see this as means to an end of literally bankrupting the UK over the next few years through out of control public spending and borrowing to perhaps at least double the current £9 billion annual subsidy from England to Scotland as well as lumbering rump UK with at least £130billion of Scottish debt before Holyrood finally declare Scotland Independant that I have warned the consequences for over a year that would literally sow the seeds for the Balkanisation of Britain (04 Sep 2014 - Scottish Independence Opens Pandora's Box of Disintegration, Balkanisation of Britain)

Whilst in Wales they have their own potential for an bankruptcy inducing insurgency with a potential of 6 MP's as the Plaid Cymru leader made clear when demanding from Ed Miliband - "We deserve an additional £1.2 billion in Wales to take is up to parity with Scotland, if you get into government will you give £1.2 billion to Wales?"

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

The opinion polls seats forecasts average at 275 seats for Conservatives and 273 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 301 : FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 309 : FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems = 299 : FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP and probably the Lib Dems i.e. Labour + SNP + Lib Dem =349 : SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

Keeps flip flopping from day to day between Labour or Conservatives in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time where by election day both parties may reach parity much inline with other forecasters.

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seat Forecasts Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are trending in favour of the Conservative party which if the trend continues implies that Conservatives will be the largest party which is inline with my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a wide margin, who could even win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.

The the key implications of the above graph are -

  • The window for an outright labour election victory has ended as of July 2013.
  • As of writing an election today would result in a Coalition government with a majority of about 40 seats.
  • The window of opportunity for a Coalition government ends by mid 2014 after which there is an increasing probability for a Conservative outright majority.
  • A May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of about 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from the beginning of 2014.

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are trending towards an outright election victory which NO ONE is currently advocating, so it would come is a big shock to pollsters on election day.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that the opinion polls are effectively forecasting the most disastrous outcome of a Labour SNP government when instead the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the Conservative Lib-Dem Coalition.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50176.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

zahlen2k
09 Apr 15, 23:33
Housing

Hi Nadeem

What do you think the impact of a labour coalition would be on house prices? What with the threat of mansion tax I think there would be potentially alot of foriegn investors selling to take profits. Do you think Gilt yields and thefore mortgage rates would climb quickly?

also in a previous post you stated prolonged deflation may impact the property market? In the same way it would affect clothes etc? Just people delay their purchases in anticipation of price falls?

Thanks alot for your time

Zahir


Nadeem_Walayat
11 Apr 15, 16:36
Best Political Party for House Prices

Hi

The Conservatives are best for house prices. Whilst the only party that I can see would be negative are UKIP i.e. their policies would result in falling house prices.

Best

NW


A_Reid
19 Apr 15, 02:03
TTIP

Not one of them will mention TTIP and how it will already abolish the NHS, jobs and much more.

Not one of them has told you how the Lisbon Treaty already legalised paedophilia by stealth (and not just, as some claim, to appease muslims. Just think of all the sexual sadism by those so called Christians and Jews in high places. Parliament, civil service, police, kids homes, celebrities, etc. etc.).

Not a single one of the leaders nor any of their parties.

Why not? Because the whole stinking putrid twisted lot of them ARE `all in it together`!

A. Reid


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife