Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President (1/2) - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Yield Curve Inversion a Remarkably Accurate Warning Indicator For Economic & Market Peril - Dan_Amerman
3.China is Now Officially at War With the US and Japan - Graham_Summers
4.Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting - 16th Jul 18 - Plunger
5.Stock Market Longer-Term Charts Show Incredible Potential - Chris_Vermeulen
6.U.S. Stock Market Cycles Update - Jim_Curry
7.Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? - Brad_Gudgeon
8.The Death of the US Real Estate Dream - Harry_Dent
9.Gold Market Signal vs. Noise - Jordan_Roy_Byrne
10.The Fonzie–Ponzi Theory of Government Debt: An Update - F_F_Wiley
Last 7 days
Moving Averages Help You Define Market Trend – Here’s How - 14th Aug 18
It's Time for A New Economic Strategy in Turkey - 14th Aug 18
Gold Price to Plunge Below $1000 - Key Factors for Gold & Silver Investors - 14th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - Video - 13th Aug 18
Stock Market Downtrend to Continue? - 13th Aug 18
More Signs That the Stock Market Will Rally Until 2019 - 13th Aug 18
New Stock Market Correction Underway - 13th Aug 18
Talk Cold Turkey Economic Crisis - 13th Aug 18
Which UK Best Theme Park - Alton Towers vs Thorpe Park vs Lego Land vs Chessington World - 12th Aug 18
USD is Rising. What this Means for Currencies and Stocks - 12th Aug 18
Hardest US Housing Market Places to Live - Look Out Middle Class - 12th Aug 18
America’s Suburbs Are Making a Comeback - 12th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle, Seasonal Analysis and Economy - Video - 12th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - Video - 11th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport 1st Dealer Oil Change Service - What to Expect - 11th Aug 18
How to Setup Webinars and Use Them to Overcome the Barriers in E-Learning - 11th Aug 18
Big US Stocks’ Q2’18 Fundamentals - 11th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018 - 10th Aug 18
SPX Testing Its First Support Level - 10th Aug 18
Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension? - 10th Aug 18
The Forrest Gump of All Future Democrat Election Losses - 10th Aug 18
More Uncertainty as Stocks Got Closer to January Record High - 10th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Kill Zone - 9th Aug 18
Even More Cracks in the Gold Dam - 9th Aug 18
Ignore the Stock Market “midterm election year”, Which is “supposed” to be Weak - 9th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - Video - 9th Aug 18
Tips on Maximizing Small Serviced Offices Space - 9th Aug 18
VIX’s Collapse is Bullish for VIX and the Stock Market - 9th Aug 18
Vestles Platform Offers Several Key Trading Tools - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 2 - 8th Aug 18
US Stock Markets Higher Until November 2018 - Part 1 - 8th Aug 18
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis - 8th Aug 18
Is the Stock Market Correction Over? - 7th Aug 18
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market - 7th Aug 18
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Video - 7th Aug 18
Trade War! Win the Economic Hostilities Against the Chinese - 7th Aug 18
Technical Analyst Sees Silver as 'Oversold' - 7th Aug 18
Alex Jones Banned! Will Unapproved Opinions Be Censored Off the Internet? - 7th Aug 18
Gold and Silver Stocks On the Verge of the Next Major Decline - 7th Aug 18
First Time Buyers Need to ‘boost the affordability’ of Their Move Alone  - 7th Aug 18
Long Term Care Homes as an Investment are Heating Up! - 7th Aug 18
The Exponential Inflationary Stocks Bull Market - Video - 6th Aug 18
Land Rover Discovery Sport Oil Change Service Dash Warning Message - 6th Aug 18
Restructuring of Western Economic Power - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis - 6th Aug 18
Stock Market and Economy False Narratives That are Just Wrong - 6th Aug 18
VPN – Is It Worth It? - 6th Aug 18
All You Need to Know About Umbrella Companies - 6th Aug 18
Why China Lost the Trade War Before it Even Began - SSEC Stocks Index - Video - 5th Aug 18
Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 5th Aug 18
Iran's Rial Currency Is In A Death Spiral, Again - 5th Aug 18
IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast - 5th Aug 18
Gold & Silver Precious Metals Monthly Charts - 5th Aug 18
Time to Position for a Decade-Long Bull Market in Natural Resources - 5th Aug 18

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Trading Any Market

Opinion Polls Forecast Labour SNP LibDem Extreme Hung Parliament Government - Election 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 08, 2015 - 03:15 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

Six days on from the 7 leaders debate and the opinion polls have settled to suggest the worst possible outcome, one of an extreme hung parliament where it is not just that any single party will be unable to form the next government but that neither party will be able to form a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats which means the only workable solution would be a Labour SNP Alliance, that could possibly also include the Liberal Democrats or perhaps Plaid Cymru's 3-6 MP's could be enough to bridge the gap to the 326 seat majority magic number.


In my opinion a Labour / Nationalists government would be a disastrous outcome for Britain as the SNP would see this as means to an end of literally bankrupting the UK over the next few years through out of control public spending and borrowing to perhaps at least double the current £9 billion annual subsidy from England to Scotland as well as lumbering rump UK with at least £130billion of Scottish debt before Holyrood finally declare Scotland Independant that I have warned the consequences for over a year that would literally sow the seeds for the Balkanisation of Britain (04 Sep 2014 - Scottish Independence Opens Pandora's Box of Disintegration, Balkanisation of Britain)

Whilst in Wales they have their own potential for an bankruptcy inducing insurgency with a potential of 6 MP's as the Plaid Cymru leader made clear when demanding from Ed Miliband - "We deserve an additional £1.2 billion in Wales to take is up to parity with Scotland, if you get into government will you give £1.2 billion to Wales?"

Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

The opinion polls seats forecasts average at 275 seats for Conservatives and 273 for Labour. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take become extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to a truly messy and disastrous outcome that involves the Scottish Nationalists i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems = 301 : FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 309 : FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems = 299 : FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome is one that involves the SNP and probably the Lib Dems i.e. Labour + SNP + Lib Dem =349 : SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

Keeps flip flopping from day to day between Labour or Conservatives in the lead and no greater distance than 10 seats from 275.

Are exhibiting a consistent strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding over time where by election day both parties may reach parity much inline with other forecasters.

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

After maintaining a continuous marginal advantage to the Conservatives over Labour has now swung in Labours favour, exhibiting no clear trend direction.

Seat Forecasts Trend Analysis

Overall the opinion pollsters are trending in favour of the Conservative party which if the trend continues implies that Conservatives will be the largest party which is inline with my forecast expectations for the Tories to lead with at least 296 seats.

Another point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 50-55, against my expectations of just 35.

Conclusion

In my judgement the opinion polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats the Conservatives will actually win by a wide margin, who could even win an outright majority on May 7th as per my long standing analysis of seats vs house prices trend trajectory that painted a picture for a likely probable Conservative general election victory.

16 Dec 2013 - UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour?

The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.

The the key implications of the above graph are -

  • The window for an outright labour election victory has ended as of July 2013.
  • As of writing an election today would result in a Coalition government with a majority of about 40 seats.
  • The window of opportunity for a Coalition government ends by mid 2014 after which there is an increasing probability for a Conservative outright majority.
  • A May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of about 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from the beginning of 2014.

The updated election seats trend graph illustrates that the Conservatives are trending towards an outright election victory which NO ONE is currently advocating, so it would come is a big shock to pollsters on election day.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that the opinion polls are effectively forecasting the most disastrous outcome of a Labour SNP government when instead the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the Conservative Lib-Dem Coalition.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecast delivered to your email in box.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50176.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

zahlen2k
09 Apr 15, 23:33
Housing

Hi Nadeem

What do you think the impact of a labour coalition would be on house prices? What with the threat of mansion tax I think there would be potentially alot of foriegn investors selling to take profits. Do you think Gilt yields and thefore mortgage rates would climb quickly?

also in a previous post you stated prolonged deflation may impact the property market? In the same way it would affect clothes etc? Just people delay their purchases in anticipation of price falls?

Thanks alot for your time

Zahir


Nadeem_Walayat
11 Apr 15, 16:36
Best Political Party for House Prices

Hi

The Conservatives are best for house prices. Whilst the only party that I can see would be negative are UKIP i.e. their policies would result in falling house prices.

Best

NW


A_Reid
19 Apr 15, 02:03
TTIP

Not one of them will mention TTIP and how it will already abolish the NHS, jobs and much more.

Not one of them has told you how the Lisbon Treaty already legalised paedophilia by stealth (and not just, as some claim, to appease muslims. Just think of all the sexual sadism by those so called Christians and Jews in high places. Parliament, civil service, police, kids homes, celebrities, etc. etc.).

Not a single one of the leaders nor any of their parties.

Why not? Because the whole stinking putrid twisted lot of them ARE `all in it together`!

A. Reid


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules