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Conservatives Start to Pull Away from Labour in Opinion Polls, But is it too Late? Election Forecast 2015

ElectionOracle / UK General Election Apr 27, 2015 - 04:22 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

With just 10 days left to go the pace of campaigning is intensifying with economic austerity abandoned in favour of a literal flood of daily voter bribes such as Labours Stamp duty bribe of upto £5k for first time buyers, and attempting to appeal to the 5 million private renters by offering 3 year rent controls. Whilst the Conservatives are offering to take 3 million on minimum wage out of tax altogether, though not mentioning if that includes national insurance as well. Meanwhile the SNP play the wolf in sheep's clothing game with front woman Nicola Sturgeon offering conciliatory messages as she bakes cakes, all the whilst hiding the truth that she is not even standing for parliament instead it will be Alex Salmond who will be calling the shots over a weak Labour minority government. That leaves the Lib Dem's offering to mellow both Labour and Conservative extremes as they ride around in their chauffeur driven limousines.


Opinion Pollster Seats Forecasts

Market Oracle May2015 .com Electoralcalculus .co.uk ElectionForecast .co.uk The Guardian
 

28th Feb

26th Apr 26th Apr 27th Apr 27th Apr
Conservative 296 272 279 286 274
Labour 262 271 282 267 270
SNP 35 55 47 48 54
Lib Dem 30 26 18 24 27
UKIP 5 3 1 1 3
Others 22 22 22 22 22

 

The opinion pollster seats forecasts convert into putting the Conservatives on 278 seats, and Labour on 272 seats, a swing from Labour to Conservatives of just 4 seats in one week. The calculations for what form a coalition government could take are extremely complicated if not impossible without resorting to the disastrous outcome that involves the SNP who are hell bent on destroying the UK i.e.

Conservatives + Lib Dems (24) = 302 - FAIL

Add DUP 8 seats = 310 - FAIL

Whilst Labour + Lib Dems (24) = 296 - FAIL

Which means the ONLY viable / workable outcome would be one that involves the SNP i.e. Labour + SNP (51) =323 - SUCCESS

The following are individual forecaster trends and my analysis.

May2015.com (New Statesman)

 

MO 28th Feb

26th Apr 20th Apr 12th Apr 7th Apr 31st Mar 28th Mar 21st Mar 12th Mar 5th Mar 26th Feb 10th Feb
Conservative 296 272 271 267 271 278 271 274 281 255 270 270
Labour 262 271 273 277 273 265 273 271 263 283 271 272
SNP 35 55 55 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 56 56
Lib Dem 30 26 25 26 26 25 24 24 24   26 25
UKIP 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4   4 4
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22        

Literally flip flops between Labour and Conservative from week to week within a tight 10 seat range of one another.

Electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

26th Apr 19th Apr 12th Apr 7th Apr 29th Mar 22nd Mar 14th Mar 9th Mar 27th Feb 30th Jan
Conservative 296 279 282 277 275 274 267 262 267 265 265
Labour 262 282 280 284 286 287 300 301 298 301 297
SNP 35 47 48 48 48 48 48 46 55 46 50
Lib Dem 30 18 17 17 17 17 17 17   15 17
UKIP 5 1 1 2 2 2 1 1   1 1
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22 22        

Have consistently exhibited a strong bias towards Labour which has been slowly eroding though is likely to persist into election day.

ElectionForecast.co.uk

 

MO 28th Feb

27th Apr 20th Apr 13th Apr 8th Apr 30th Mar 22nd Mar 11th Mar 25th Feb 13th Feb
Conservative 296 286 281 283 287 282 286 295 284 280
Labour 262 267 275 274 270 281 276 267 279 283
SNP 35 48 43 42 43 36 39 42 39 37
Lib Dem 30 24 26 27 27 27 26 24 25 27
UKIP 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Others 22 22 22 22 22 23 22      

Tends to consistently put the Conservatives in a clear seats lead, so tends to most closely reflect my own long standing forecast.

The Guardian

 

MO 28th Feb

27th Apr 20th Apr 13th Apr 8th Apr 31st Mar 29th Mar 18th Mar 11th Mar 27th Feb 28th Jan
Conservative 296 274 270 271 272 278 275 277 279 276 273
Labour 262 270 271 271 273 271 271 269 266 271 273
SNP 35 54 55 51 51 50 53 53 52 51 49
Lib Dem 30 27 28 28 28 25 25 25 27 27 28
UKIP 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 5
Others 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22      

Tends to exhibit a marginal advantage to the Conservatives within a tight 10 seat band.

Seats Forecast Trend Analysis

The opinion polls have finally started to weakly trend in favour of the Conservative party, which if continues implies that the Conservatives will be the largest party on election day on about 283 seat with Labour trailing on about 268 seats, which remains contrary to my long standing forecast expectations for the Tories to lead on at least 296 seats with Labour on 262 seats.

Another continuing point of difference is that pollsters continue to grossly over estimate the number of seats the SNP will win i.e. typically 48-55, against my expectations of just 35.

If the opinion polls trend does pan out then the only workable majority would be Labour 268 + SNP 52 + Plaid Cymru 5 for a 325 seat messy nationalists driven weak Labour minority government. Which implies that with just 10 days it may now be too late for the Conservatives to achieve critical mass of around 296 seats, that is unless the Conservative opinion poll trend starts to accelerate right into election day.

Conclusion

The current opinion poll projections confirm my longstanding conclusion that the polls remain wrong as they continue to persistently under estimate the number of seats I expect the Conservatives to win by a wide margin, who in my opinion could still even win an outright majority on May 7th. The obvious reason why is because on election day most people when faced with the stark choice of between gambling on Ed Milliband-Sturgeon etc. Axis, will opt for a continuation of the steady as she goes Cameron-Clegg Coalition.

So today when polled, voters without giving too much thought will usually lean towards an opposition party, but come actually marking ones cross on election day then more thought will go into that decision, especially when English voters consider the ramifications of an SNP dictatorship for the next five years, something that pollsters are FAILING to pickup upon i.e. English fears of an Labour-SNP government that will encourage many floating voters to turn to the Conservatives and Lib Dems.

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my in-depth analysis of 28th Feb:

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

Find out if the Lib-Dem Leader Nick Clegg can win / retain his Sheffield Hallam constituency seat:

And also see my recent video analysis that explains Britain's housing crisis.

The bottom line is that the SNP high command may have mellowed their message as they keep Alex Salmond off the airwaves in the run up to the election. However post election the SNP will ONLY act in the interests of Scotland, a defacto dictatorship imposed on England that not a single English voter will have voted for! This truly is a recipe for disaster as we may see a series of revolts amongst England's wage slaves in the awake of what would transpire. Though my consistent forecast is one of the SNP failing to win anywhere near the 55 seats that pollsters suggest, instead a Conservative led minority government is still the most probable outcome, or maybe I am just hoping Britain manages to avoid an election catastrophe?

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50428.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2015 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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