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What Can Stock Market Tell You About Politics?

Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2016 - Stock Market Crash Postponed Again

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016 Dec 31, 2016 - 07:29 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

The two most unexpected political shock events of the year were Britain's EU Referendum BrExit vote that literally no one in the establishment media, markets, the pollsters or bookies saw coming, which left a newly appointment Prime Minister to explain what BrExit exactly means who response is always that "BrExit means Brexit". Though many who commentated on breakfast, I mean Brexit end up confusing the two. "Brexit means Breakfast". Anyway we shall soon find out exactly what BrExit means....


Then there was alt-reality TV star, Donald Trump literally inducing mass delirium in the american electorate, going on to win the US Presidency which again for the second time for during 2016 no one in the establishment media saw coming, the pollsters, the financial markets all got another election outcome badly wrong leaving them to create a new bogeyman to explain their ineptitude upon, the FAKE NEWS MONSTER!

Whilst where the financial markets are concerned, the crude oil price trend garnered much popular interest as the early year oil price collapse had pushed many oil producers towards the edge of economic collapse. And again the BrExit and Trump factors induced much market uncertainty as the consensus expectations that both events would result in an end of the 7 year long stocks bull market, which instead resulted in the exact opposite trends to a series of new all-time highs.

Market Oracle Top 10 Most Popular Articles of 2016

1
Oil Wars 2016 - US vs Russia vs Saudi Arabia vs Iran

Jan 15, 2016 - 08:36 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

The oil price collapse is having a devastating impact on ALL of the worlds major oil producers as it's not just a case of what is the break-even price but the price necessary to finance government budgets that are now in deep deficits which has been triggering increasing global instability as the price has slid to $30. In fact the budgets of virtually every major oil producer requires an oil price north of $80 just to break-even. With several such as Russia requiring $100+. Furthermore the oil price slump of 2015 has played a large part in sparking economic mass migration out of African oil producers such as Nigeria whose government requires an oil price of $120 to balance it's budget.

2
Harry Dent: Stock Market 70% Crash By Late 2017 – Gold $400-$800

Apr 21, 2016 - 03:22 PM GMT By: Gordon_T_Long

FRA Co-founder, Gordon T. Long  is joined by Harry Dent to have a detailed discussion about the state of the global economy and how investors can be prepare themselves for the turmoils to come.

Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the Founder of Dent Research, an economic forecasting firm specializing in demographic trends. His mission is “Helping People Understand Change”. Using exciting new research developed from years of hands-on business experience, Mr. Dent offers unprecedented and refreshingly understandable tools for seeing the key economic trends that will affect your life, your business, and your investments over the rest of your lifetime.

3
UK Interest Rates, Economy GDP Forecasts 2016 and 2017

Feb 06, 2016 - 04:59 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

Six months ago Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney in 'forward guidance' at the time gave his intentions to start to raise UK interest rates early 2016, that in the run up to the Fed December rate hike had galvanised many to expect a similar trailing response from the Bank of England to gradually follow the Fed towards normalisation of UK interest rates towards a target of 2.5% over 3 years i.e. by Mid 2018.

"Short-term interest rates have averaged around 4.5% since around the Bank's inception three centuries ago, the same average as during the pre-crisis period when inflation was at target...

4
UK House Prices BrExit Crash NOT Likely Despite London Property Market Weakness

Jul 03, 2016 - 04:42 PM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

The establishment REMAIN camp peddled the same story for the UK housing market all year, one of a collapse, crash or worse! As operation fear each month ramped up the threats of that which awaited a post Brexit Britain. The house prices crash fear mongering even emanated direct from George Osborne himself who warned: “If we leave the European Union there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets... That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10 per cent and up to 18 per cent."

5
The Future Price Of Gold Will Drop Below $1000 In 2017

Nov 12, 2016 - 05:40 PM GMT By: InvestingHaven

As the price of gold and silver came down sharply, many investors are asking what the future price of gold will be. Although we do not pretend to have a crystal ball, we observe sufficient signals in the charts to make a make a call about the future price of gold into 2017.

In general, the precious metals market has turned very sour. Gold registered it largest loss on a weekly basis since it crashed in 2013. Moreover, gold and silver miners, said to lead the precious metals complex, have truly crashed this week.

6
Crude Oil Price Crash Triggering Global Instability, Trend Forecast 2016

Jan 17, 2016 - 05:41 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price collapse of 2015 has continued into 2016 with the price of oil plunging to a 12 year low of just under $30 per barrel as a consequence of a perfect storm of falling demand, primarily due to the slowing Chinese economy and relentlessly rising output that is not just limited to the usual OPEC suspects but is as the natural consequences of the fracking boom that continued to ripple out from the US to across the world during 2015.

7
Trump Delirium Triggers Stock Market Brexit Upwards Crash Towards Dow 20,000!

Nov 19, 2016 - 06:33 PM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

There were two consensus views heading into the US Presidential Election count night. Firstly that Hillary Clinton would win the election, after all Nate Silver had her penned at a 71% probability whilst the New York Times was touting 85% and so were the betting markets discounting a Hillary win with Trump trading on Betfair at 6.6 whilst Hillary stood at just 1.17 an hour before the polls closed. Then there were Hillary's wall street backers who had all but discounted their candidate winning.

8
Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning...

Jan 11, 2016 - 07:28 AM GMT By: Clive_Maund

Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn't even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash - last week was just a "warmup", the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August.

On the 10-year chart for the S&P500 index, we can see that while the market did indeed drop hard last week, it still has not broken down from its Head-and-Shoulders top, the lower boundary of which is shown by the thin black line. When it does break down from the top area, there is an awful lot of air below it - it has a long, long way to drop, and the decline is likely to be precipitous.

9
Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016

Feb 22, 2016 - 06:23 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.

10
NEW Mathematical Model For Predicting The NEXT US Stock Market Flash Crash

Jan 11, 2016 - 07:53 AM GMT By: Dr_David_J_Harris

A new mathematical model has been developed that predicts future significant corrections in the US stock market, but in particular it has the potential to predict the next US stock market flash crash.

    • In Q4 2015, a new mathematical model was developed with the potential to predict the next US stock market flash crash, prior to the actual event.
    • Originally built to calculate strength in price movement in a stock index, the new model can be used to predict significant periods of price weakness.
    • Key market corrections, including the recent stock market flash crash events of May 2010 and August 2015 are correctly identified by the model, in advance.
    • In addition, key waterfall type corrections, including February 2009, August 2011 and May 2012 are successfully identified by the model, in advance.
    • Predictions for 2016 are presented in this article.

    2017

    For a taste of whats to come during 2017 see my most recent video -

    Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed market trend forecasts aimed, lets see just how bad Trump will be got stocks for 2017, as we aim to capitalise on Trumps Coming War on China.

Hope you all have a happy and prosperous 2017!

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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