Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - 13th Oct 19
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common - 13th Oct 19
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher - 13th Oct 19
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix - 13th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video - 12th Oct 19
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials - 12th Oct 19
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 - 12th Oct 19
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis - 11th Oct 19
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations - 11th Oct 19
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend - 11th Oct 19
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks - 11th Oct 19
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences - 11th Oct 19
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks - 11th Oct 19
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money - 11th Oct 19
Will Miami be the First U.S. Real Estate Bubble to Burst? - 11th Oct 19
How Online Casinos Maximise Profits - 11th Oct 19
3 Tips for Picking Junior Gold Stocks - 10th Oct 19
How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? - 10th Oct 19
This Is the Best Time to Load Up on These 3 Value Stocks - 10th Oct 19
What Makes this Gold Market Rally Different From All Others - 10th Oct 19
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - 9th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

YouGov Shock Fake Poll Shows Conservatives Losing Election, Hung Parliament

ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 31, 2017 - 01:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

YouGov appears determined to garner the most publicity by continuing to publish what in my opinion are FAKE POLLS that will never reflect reality, only purpose being to feed the mainstream media machine eager to create an illusion of a tight election race when no such race exists. And so the Times reports YouGov's headline grabbing shock poll of the Tories losing 20 seats falling to 310 whilst labour adding about 30 rising to 257 resulting in a Hung Parliament, a nightmare scenario of a weak Labour government controlled by the SNP that like vampires would seek to bleed the United Kingdom dry of its financial blood.


Of course it's nonsense, as i illustrated in my recent video analysis of how and why the pollsters keep getting election after election very badly wrong. It's because opinion polls are propaganda tool for the mainstream media to peddle an agenda in their self interest of selling garbage to the masses.

Furthermore a spokes person for YouGov stated that the same model had correctly predicted the LEAVE vote, which illustrates the point I have been making since 2015 that the pollsters are RIGHT even when they are WRONG. Publish enough polls, and have a wide enough margin of error then virtually every possible outcome is covered so the pollsters can claim victory no matter who wins! Here's what YouGov actually stated on BrExit night, when after the polls closed YouGov called it for REMAIN on 52% against LEAVE on 48% and now YouGov a year on are saying that they had a model all along that had correctly predicted LEAVE would win but kept quiet about it at the time instead publically stating that REMAIN had won:

My analysis of last Friday warned that what we are seeing are FAKE POLLS, for I have seen this several times before, where a polling industry desperate to sell polls coupled with the mainstream media desperate to sell publications always demand a CLOSE election so as to garner the greatest amount of public interest, when in fact the reality is that the polls are FAKE :

26 May 2017 - Opinion Pollsters UK General Election Seats Forecasts 2017

Fake Polls

The latest opinion polls show the Tory 20% lead of a month ago has slumped to just 5%! However I consider this to be Polling BS, FAKE POLLS! I have seen this behaviour before, for instance with the Scottish Independence Referendum that the polling industry MANIPULATED into a 50/50 position. Instead my analysis at the time warned that the polls were deliberately WRONG so that the polling industry could sell their worthless pile of dog poop to the gullible masses as demanded by the commissioning broadsheets so that they can sell their garbage to the masses. FAKE POLLING !

12 Sep 2014 - Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability

The opinion polls paint a picture of a too close to call Scottish Independence vote on September 18th which even saw a 51% to 49% lead for the YES campaign just a few days ago that triggered much panic across the political spectrum and financial markets.

However, as I concluded in my recent in depth analysis that the actual probability for Scotland voting YES is just 30% rather than the near 50/50 proposition that the mainstream press has itself in a frenzy over:

So I am going to stick with the average of polls as they are today for this analysis rather than wait for the fake polls to make already weak polling data even more worthless.

Furthermore the UK General Election of 2015 similarly witnessed FAKE POLLS so as to create the illusion of a tight election race as my following analysis explained -

14 May 2015 - Deconstruction of UK General Election 2015 Result - Why Opinion Pollsters Got it Wrong

Why the Opinion Pollsters Got the 2015 Election Badly Wrong

Since my view was consistently contrary to what the opinion polls were stating, therefore I have had the whole year to ponder why the opinion were wrong, some of which I illuminated in the lead up to election day -

01 May 2015 - UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win?

Therefore come May 8th virtually all pollsters will have egg on their faces as the mainstream media will have flushed untold millions down the drain on commissioning opinion polls that turned out to be WRONG just as the polls were wrong in the run up to the Scottish referendum that was never a 50/50 proposition which at the time I concluded was mainly so as to allow pollsters to sell opinion polls and the mainstream press to sell copy and so it is the case with today's election campaign.

29th Sept 2014 - UK Saved From I.S. Threat But Scottish Independence Nightmare is Not Over!

There is another reason as well for why the polls were so close and that is one of SALES, the polling industry SELLING a tight election so that the gullible mainstream press would buy their polling services. Therefore painting a picture of a tight race by manipulating the data will have turned out to be a huge money spinner for the polling agencies.

My article concluded in the most probable forecast for the outcome of the result would be for at least show a 10% gap between NO and YES, and definitely not reflective of the mass hysteria.

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

Therefore here is my list of 7 key reasons why the Opinion Pollsters got it wrong, most of which the pollsters will never ever be able to arrive at as reasons for being wrong.

1. Back Fitting Data - Lack of Mechanism to Say the Methodology is Wrong

Virtually every experienced 'successful' market analyst / trader understands that 'Trading Systems' just do not work going forward i.e. all that trading systems do is back fit data onto what has already happened and thus WILL FAIL going forward. Which is the precise mistake that opinion pollsters tend to make as they weight, adjust and fine tune to take account of this, that and other which just as is would be the case for systems that trade the markets and so is the case for public opinion polls that fitting data to mast past election outcomes just does not work!

And worse for pollsters is that they do not have any daily mechanism to demonstrate that they are wrong for general elections only come along every 5 years or so, which means that there is no data to test the opinion polls against in real time and hence why opinion polls can be wrong for years as was the case for the 2015 general election.

2. Opinion Polls Sales Industry - Fear Sells!

As I covered earlier that the primary objective of opinion pollsters is to SELL their daily polling services. Where it is to the benefit of the pollsters and the mainstream media that commission the polls for the election race to be very tight, exciting or frightening rather than a dull certainty. Hence the picture painted did not reflect probability even if the pollsters methodologies actually worked, for reality does not sell daily opinion polling services or mainstream media copy. Just as market realities of a dull 6 year relentless stocks bull market will not sell much media copy hence the constant obsession with stories that always warn of an imminent stock market crash, collapse, meltdown, bear market etc that has failed to materialise for 6 years as I have covered at length in articles and my stocks stealth bull market series of ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD).

4. Opinion Polls are Political Propaganda

Just as economics is mainly economic propaganda to massage the general populations future expectations, for instance the Bank of England's persistent propaganda of the danger of always imminent deflation when the reality is one of the UK being immersed in an exponential inflation mega-trend.

The solution is as my Friday's analysis concluded is that if you are going to rely on the polls then USE the AVERAGE of polls AND forget polling conducted in the final 2 weeks, especially if they start to broadcast a ridiculous tightening in the race as we are now witnessing, which at this rate could even put Labour into the lead by voting date, despite the fact that REALITY IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for the next analysis in this series as I countdown to my UK general election 2017 final forecast conclusion and to our youtube channel for videos in this and the BrExit War series.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules