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Urgent Stock Market Message

Spain Ignores Scotland Lesson as Catalan Independence Referendum Could Spark Civil War

Politics / Spain Oct 01, 2017 - 04:14 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat


The cry going out across Catalonia is that if a far less populous region such as Scotland can hold an Independence Referendum then why are the people of Catalonia being denied the same right. The Madrid regime instead of following the cue from Westminister which did not stand in the way of the Scottish people having a vote to leave the United Kingdom held in September 2014, the Spanish regime has instead decreed that the people of Catalonia do not have the freedom to vote for potential independence from an increasingly dictatorial Spanish state, as evidenced by the threats and show of force in the form of thousands of armed police sent into Catalonia in an attempt to shut down all political dissent and prevent today's Referendum vote from taking place.

Catalonia the Spark for a New Spanish Civil War?

The Spanish governments dictatorial response that includes mass arrests in an attempt at preventing the Catalan people from holding an independence referendum now risks sparking a new Spanish civil war, the next major flash point for which would be when the Spanish regime decided to send in the army, tanks and all to quell the peoples uprising by force, effectively suspending the Catalan government.

The irony of the current situation is that if the Spanish government had learned the lesson from the UK and not tried to prevented the referendum from going ahead then the Catalan people would likely have voted NO to Independence.

What is most likely to happen?

That the Catalan government and the Madrid regime looks set to continue on their current path towards greater conflict, escalating the crisis all the way until armed conflict breaks out or if an external agency such as the European Union steps in and forces the Madrid regime to back down and allow a referendum to go ahead.

This illustrates the fatal flaw at the heart the European Union in that it is a Union of disparate economic, social and political states from the neo-naziesk eastern states to the pseudo democracies of Southern Europe from Spain in the West to Greece in the East, which is one of the contributory reasons why the people of Britain voted to LEAVE the undemocratic European Union that was seeking to average all states down in terms of democracy, freedom and the rights of individual citizens.

Britain being a 'real' democracy as opposed to most of the nations of the European Union, pseudo democracies, borderline dictatorships, the UK government did not stand in the way of the Scottish people voting for independence even if at the time I concluded that it was effectively a vote for Scotland to commit suicide, that would literally tear apart a YES voting Scotland and much of the rest of the UK as the following illustrates:

UK During the Year After Scotland Voted YES to Independence:

by SaveTheChildren (youtube)

At the time I warned in a series of articles and videos that the Scottish Nationalist fanatics were trying to convince the scottish people to jump off the edge of a cliff, effectively commit economic and social suicide as excerpted below:

Sep 07, 2014 - Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?

Opening Pandora's Box of Disintegration, the Balkanisation of Britain

The peoples of the United Kingdom are literally being sleep walked towards the edge of the cliff, most completely unaware of the potentially disastrous ramifications for not just Scotland but for what lies in store for the remainder of the United Kingdom following a Scottish Independence YES vote that would break start the process for ripping apart a 300 hundred year old entity of an United Island of Great Britain, which as I have repeatedly warned of during 2014 that a YES vote would literally sow the seeds for the balkanisation of Britain as this Island would literally tear it itself apart as the status quo of what had been taken for granted would no longer exist.

A whole host of news during the past year illustrate that the approaching Scottish Independence vote has already galvanised agitants right across the UK, for instance blowing on the embers for Cornish independence as they wave their aptly coloured Cornish black funeralesk flag that continues with calls of autonomy literally right at the other end of Britain from the Northern and Western Isles with calls for their own devolution from Edinburgh and even calls for their own parliament that sows the seeds not only for the balkanisation of Britain but also for breakup of an newly Independent Scotland that following a YES vote would soon start to disintegrate, as for instance the bordering regions would reassert their separate identity that has far more in common with the North England than much of Scotland, formerly known as the Kingdom of Northumbria that stretches from Edinburgh in the north all the way to the city of Sheffield in the south.

Whilst Alex Salmond, Scotland's Nigel Farage repeatedly plays the Scotland is rich because of North Sea oil card, what he convientely omits is that a significant portion of Scotland's oil reserves lie in the waters of the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland). Many people of the Northern Isles see themselves as having far more in common with Norway than Scotland which given the near immediate currency, financial and economic crisis that would follow independence would be fast pulled towards sharing sovereignty for far greater stability with the likes of Norway that could achieve what it could never have done militarily, namely expanding its borders and gaining many western north sea oil fields. Though in all probability the Northern Isles would probably eventually settle as becoming a protectorate of the United Kingdom along the lines of the Isle of Man.

So if Alex Salmond 'King of the Scots' does succeed in his tunnel vision mission for an Independant Scotland then he will likely go down in history as the first and last Prime Minister of Scotland as we know it today, which effectively means a Yes vote on 18th September will be Scotland voting to commit suicide as when the dust settles what remains would be a mere fraction of its current size.

Thus fatal mistake being made by the Spanish government of not allowing the people of Catalonia the right to vote for independence, for if they had then it is even more likely that the people of Catalan would have voted NO to Independence than was the case for Scotland in September 2014, which in the final days had the polls putting YES to Independence marginally ahead.

However at the time I warned that the polls were wrong and why the people of Scotland would vote to remain within the United Kingdom:

12 Sep 2014 - Main Reason Why Scotland Will Vote NO to Independence, 70% Probability

The opinion polls paint a picture of a too close to call Scottish Independence vote on September 18th which even saw a 51% to 49% lead for the YES campaign just a few days ago that triggered much panic across the political spectrum and financial markets.

However, as I concluded in my recent in depth analysis that the actual probability for Scotland voting YES is just 30% rather than the near 50/50 proposition that the mainstream press has itself in a frenzy over:

Scottish Independence YES Vote Panic - Scotland Committing Suicide and Terminating the UK?

CONCLUSION - Which Way Will Scotland Vote?

Despite opinion polls now putting the YES vote in a slim lead of 51% to 49% and implying momentum being with the YES campaigners into the September 18th vote. When all things are considered the answer for the vast majority of Scots on September 18th will be whether Scotland would be better off in or outside the United Kingdom that can only lead to one conclusion which is that Scotland voting YES would be tantamount to the nation committing suicide. Therefore the whole Independence referendum game that Scotland plays every few decades is not actually about gaining Independence from the UK but rather one of black mailing England into both giving more powers (devomax) to Scotland AND increasing the amount of net subsidy (ransom) that Scotland extracts from England that in public spending terms works out to an extra £1600 spent per person per annum which is why Scotland can afford to send its children to Universities for FREE whilst English children are saddled with at least £40,000 of tuition fee debts.

However, England has NO CHOICE but to continue to pay Scotland's annual ransom for staying in the Union as the consequences for the the UK would be dire should Scottish Independence actually happen as it would probably prove fatal for BOTH Scotland and what remains of the UK, resulting in economic and social chaos that would destroy much of what has been built over the past 300 years.

So in my opinion Scotland will Vote NO to Independence and YES to a continuing extract a Queens ransom from Westminister. On the other hand, if I am proven wrong and the Scots like lemmings actually do vote to leap off the cliff, then September 18th should be taken as a STRONG signal to DIS-INVEST from the UK and to construct and implement personal exit strategies from the UK that I will write much about in the event of such a calamity.

The ONE main reason why Scotland will overwhelmingly reject Independence / separation / ripping the UK apart, even suicide, is the £1,600 per head annual subsidy. For that is the minimum amount of subsidy that English workers are forced to pay annually towards every man woman and child in Scotland by Westminister politicians who never see the day to day repercussions on ordinary people of their actions, as £1600 amounts to a very effective bribe that allows Scots to enjoy a level of public services that the people of England can only dream about such as FREE University tuition rather than English students being saddled with £40,000 of debt, amongst many other benefits such as free NHS eye tests and prescriptions in Scotland whilst English patients have to pay etc.

Therefore most Scots will vote with their pockets rather than their hearts by understanding the huge extent to which their way of life is being subsidised by England, and it is England and not the UK that pays for England subsidises all of the constituent states of the United Kingdom as illustrated by the below graphic by the Office of National Statistics.

Source: ONS

An Independent Scotland would immediately result in an EXTRA £100 available to spend per head of English population on public services. Whilst for Scotland a loss of £1600 per head would only mark the start of their nightmare of filling the void between what Scotland earns and what it spends on its socialist public sector state.

Furthermore the huge subsidy / transference of wealth from England to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales is what allows these states to employ 40% MORE mostly unproductive public sector workers per head of population than England. The effect of which is to drive down productivity as a large unproductive public sector tends to drown out the productive private sector.

This also explains why there will never even be a murmur out of either Wales or Northern Ireland for demands for Independence, not whilst English workers are working hard to finance their life styles to such a great extent.

So in my opinion rather than the outcome of the Scottish referendum being too close to call, instead I would be not be surprised if as many as 70% of the Scottish people vote NO to losing over £1600 per annum per person!

Catalan Referendum Voting Day

The spanish polls will be soon opening in a few hours time and it will be interesting to see how heavy handed the Madrid regimes storm troopers are in quelling democracy in Catalonia. I am sure broadcasters and the mainstream media will soon be playing footage and showing pictures of bloodied voters which is not going to go down well in Spain's other regions that also seek autonomy from the dictatorial Madrid regime.

The bottom line is that the actions of the Madrid regime ensure that the Catalan crisis will both worsen and the independence contagion will likely spread to the other regions of Spain. Thus unless the Spanish government reverses course imminently then Spain looks like it is heading towards armed uprisings in response to central government's use of force against peaceful protests which means that today we will be likely witnessing the start of the DISINTEGRATION OF SPAIN!

Furthermore Spain is NOT an isolated incidence but is the norm for what to expect in an UNDEMOCRATIVE EUROPEAN UNION! It is NOT designed or operates in the interests of the rights of ordinary citizens who seek the right for self determination, it is designed in the interests of the European Elites which is why Britain MUST succeed in exiting the European Union ASAP else the likes of the Scots will never have the freedom to hold a second independence referendum, not if the UK remains a member of the EU that seeks to consume the sovreignty of its member states towards engineering a common european union governed construct in all aspects of governance!

BrExit Disrupting Integrity of European Union and Member States

At the end of the day Britain's BrExit vote IS significantly impacting the cohesion of the European Union and member states, for it should not be forgotten that earlier this year that the EU and Spain had threatened Britain over Gibraltar.

"After the United Kingdom leaves the Union, no agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without the agreement between the Kingdom of Spain and the United Kingdom."

A spokesman for the Spanish government added: "It is what we wanted and what we have said from the beginning... The recognition by the European Union of the legal and political situation that Spain has defended fully satisfies us." Inigo Mendez de Vigo

The Government of Gibraltar responded: "This is a disgraceful attempt by Spain to manipulate the European Council for its own, narrow, political interests, a clear manifestation of the predictably predatory attitude that we anticipated Spain would seek to abusively impose on its partners," Chief Minister of Gibraltar."

Whilst former Tory party leader Michael Howard went one step further by reminding Spain of the lengths Britain would be willing to go to protect its territorial integrity from outside subversion:

"It's 35 years to the week since another woman Prime Minister sent a task force half way across the world to safeguard the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish speaking country and I think Theresa May would show the same resolve as her predecessor dead and look after the interests of Gibraltar."

And Defence Secretary Michael Fallon stated "the UK would go “all the way” to protect Gibraltar and its people’s right to remain part of the United Kingdom."

Brexit War? I know many reading this may think this to be preposterous, it's not going to happen. But remember barely over a year ago Brexit was impossible, and virtually everyone laughed at Trump, a clown that no one took seriously. Both unthinkable events of Brexit and Trump are combining to saw the seeds of a Covert Intelligence war between Britain and the EU aided by US intelligence. Though I suspected US Intelligence have their hands full with Trump taking a wrecking ball to the White House establishment.

So whilst most today may see this as being impossible, it is in fact infinitely more probable now than it was a year ago as my following video from March 2016 illustrated of what BrExit and Britain's covert war is going to do to the European Union of which Spain's Catalan crisis is merely one emerging visible instance of:

Source and Comments:

By Nadeem Walayat

Copyright © 2005-2017 (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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