Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20
AMAZON Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 11th Jan 20
Gold Price Reacting to Global Flash Points - 11th Jan 20
Land Rover Discovery Sport 2020 - What You Need to Know Before Buying - 11th Jan 20
Gold Buying Precarious - 11th Jan 20
The Crazy Stock Market Train to Bull Eternity - 11th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO

Commodities / Crude Oil Apr 20, 2018 - 08:24 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range.


The oil price trading range trend for March (inline with my last update) set the scene for the current rally that hit a 3 year high of $69.

Charts by stockcharts.com

Whilst my forecast for 2018 since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.

Crude Oil Forecast 2018

01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?

Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!

With my last update of late February reaffirming my $80 target despite the then deep 15% drop, with my concluding expectations for the oil price to spend March within a tight trading range before resuming its trend higher.

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

27 Feb 2018 - Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

CONCLUSION

Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

MACD is bullish and not overbought which is supportive of overall rising oil prices.

RESISTANCE is at previous major support at $90 which suggests oil price trend could continue higher towards that level.

SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, that should contain any brief reaction lower within the trading range.

TREND CHANNELS - The oil price has hit the upper end of its rising trend channel which suggests a reaction lower is likely. Also given the shallowness of the channel, then unless there is a major breakout higher then the oil price progress higher is likely to be slow.

ELLIOT WAVE - I count 5 minor waves off the $58 low, which suggests to expect an ABC correction that implies the oil price looks set to remain within its trading range for the next month or so before resuming its trend higher.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS - oil prices tend to rally into late summer and then fall into early winter. Which is supportive of a trend higher in oil prices into late August / Early September.

FUNDAMENTALS

ARAMCO - The Saudi government recently made it known that they wanted the oil price to rise to $80 so as to ensure a successful ARAMCO IPO this year. Whilst this has grabbed market attention. However, when one of the oil markets key player is attempting to pump the oil price higher so that they can dump ARAMCO stock, then that means they are eyeing the maximum possible price they can temporarily achieve, which implies significantly higher than $80. So the announcement may be for $80 however the objective is probably $100 as the difference between $60 and $100 could amount to as much as $1 trillion difference in ARAMCO's IPO valuation.

So expect the Saudi's to continue trying to manipulate the oil price higher both through Saudi oil supply and through their proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, which includes false flag operations such as the recent supposed missile attack on Riyadh, all of which are aimed towards boosting the oil price ahead of the ARAMCO IPO.

EIA reports US oil stockpiles falling towards the 5 year average of 430 million barrels, down form 540 millions barrels a year ago. So whilst not screaming bullish, nevertheless falling US stocks are supportive of oil prices.

FORECAST CONCLUSION

The crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so within the high of $69 and a low of $61. Whilst my 2018 forecast for a target high of $80 remains intact and which now looks set to be achieved between late August and early September. So I don't expect the Saudi's to get their $100 crude oil price to dump ARAMCO IPO stock on the market this year. Still if the Saudi's time it right they could sell ARAMCO stock whilst the crude oil price is trading near $80.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and youtube channel for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article62107.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules