Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19
S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction - 17th June 19
Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? - 17th June 19
Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion - 17th June 19
Stock Market Rally Faltering? - 17th June 19
Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting - 17th June 19
Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story - 17th June 19
King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies - 17th June 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) - 17th June 19
Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? - 17th June 19
US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - 16th June 19
Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting - 16th June 19
Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video - 16th June 19
Fethiye Market Fruit, Veg, Spices and Turkish Delight Tourist Shopping - 16th June 19
US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis - 15th June 19
Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals - 15th June 19
The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline - 15th June 19
Fire Insurance Claims: What Are the Things a Fire Claim Adjuster Does? - 15th June 19
How To Find A Trustworthy Casino? - 15th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video - 14th June 19
Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! - 14th June 19
Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video - 14th June 19
The American Dream Is Alive and Well - in China - 14th June 19
Keeping the Online Gaming Industry in Line - 14th June 19
How Acquisitions Affect Global Stocks - 14th June 19
Please Don’t Buy the Dip in Nvidia or Other Chip Stocks - 14th June 19
A Big Thing in Investor Education is Explainer Videos - 14th June 19
IRAN - The Next American War - 13th June 19
Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match Contest - 13th June 19
Top Best VPN Services You Can Choose For Your iPhone - 13th June 19
Tory Leadership Contest Betting Markets Forecast - Betfair - 13th June 19
US Stock Market Setting Up A Pennant Formation - 13th June 19
Which Stocks Will Lead The Cannabis Rebound? - 13th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update

Commodities / Crude Oil Oct 09, 2018 - 05:17 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

This is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018. So firstly a recap of my forecast for for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.


Crude Oil Forecast 2018

01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?

Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!

My update of late February reaffirmed the $80 target despite the then deep 15% drop.

27 Feb 2018 - Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

CONCLUSION

Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.

Whilst my last look at the crude oil price on 20th April again confirmed my expectations for crude oil to hit $80 between August and September 2018.

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO

FORECAST CONCLUSION

The crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so within the high of $69 and a low of $61. Whilst my 2018 forecast for a target high of $80 remains intact and which now looks set to be achieved between late August and early September. So I don't expect the Saudi's to get their $100 crude oil price to dump ARAMCO IPO stock on the market this year. Still if the Saudi's time it right they could sell ARAMCO stock whilst the crude oil price is trading near $80.

So here we stand at the end of September with the crude oil price trading at $73 off of its recent high of $76, within touching distance of my $80 forecast target for 2018.

Charts courtesy of https://stockcharts.com

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

TREND CHANNELS - The oil price for the whole of the 2018 has been trading within the upper band of trend channel that extend towards a high of $80 by the end of 2018, which is the primary reason for my original forecast target.

So far the trend channel has held of breaking into the lower channel therefore current support is at $67 which should contain any correction lower. However whilst bullish, the trend channel curve as I mentioned in April is quite shallow which means the progress higher for the crude oil price is likely to be slow which so far is the pattern observed. So don't expect a sudden spike to $100 any time soon, instead it's a steady quiet trend higher, probably under the radar of many investors who likely will wake up to news of crude oil hitting $80 and wondering how it got there out of the blue.

RESISTANCE is at previous major support at $90 which suggests oil price trend should continue higher towards that level.

SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, and $64 that should contain corrections within the rising trend channel.

ELLIOT WAVE - Elliott wave is implying that the oil price will breakdown and target $60 BEFORE heading higher once more i.e. currently in a Wave 4 correction, of which approx half has been completed, therefore suggesting $60 rather than $80 by late December. So EW is not matching trend analysis.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS - oil prices tend to rally into late summer and then fall into early winter, which supports what elliot waves are saying.

FORECAST CONCLUSION

Therefore my forecast remains as at the start of the year that the crude oil price will target a trend to $80 which is not likely to be achieve during late December / early January 2019 as so far it is not showing any signs of wanting to breakdown into the lower end of its trend channel the consequences of which would be it would take a lot longer to get to $80.

What About Beyond 2018?

The trend trajectory is such that the oil price is likely to target a trend to at least $90 during 2019 and I would not be surprised if it even spikes to $100 as tends to happen when speculators who had their eyes elsewhere suddenly realise that oil is in a bull market. So as things stand today I expect the oil price bull market continue well into 2019.

My forecast conclusion was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So to get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules