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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: China US Conflict

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Trump's Final Gamble: From Chinagate to Hybrid Wars / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

The disastrous failure of the Trump administration to contain COVID-19 will result in catastrophic 2nd quarter data. As a result, Trump is risking his re-election on domestic unrest, fatal geopolitics and a global depression.

The cold reality is that the Trump administration learned about the virus already on January 3, when CDC Director Dr. Robert R. Redfield informed Secretary of Health Alex Azar that China had discovered a new coronavirus. Yet no mobilization was initiated until toward late March (see my report here):

Indeed, the Trump White House missed three opportunities to contain the virus outbreak; in January (between CDC alert and WHO’s international emergency), the 1st quarter (between the WHO emergency and the pandemic alert) and the 2nd quarter (since social distancing began 6-8 weeks late and inadequately).

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Politics

Friday, May 01, 2020

Coronavirus Wuhan Bio Lab Origins Paving Way for US War with China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The CCP opened one of their desk drawers marked "Do Not Open" to reveal that the number of total deaths is actually 50% higher than previously reported. Expect more such revisions upwards though likely we will never know the true number since many bodies were disposed off in mass cremations, and I would not be surprised if the real number was at least 5 times higher than Beijing propaganda, all of which acts as accelerant on the War with China mega-trend as what the West is experiencing does not match that which China reported to the world to expect for which there will be a reckoning with China. As is the focus of my latest video based on excerpted analysis from my article made available to Patrons on the 6th of April.

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Politics

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

US Paving the Way for War with China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Meanwhile the CCP opened one of their desk drawers marked "Do Not Open" to reveal that the number of total deaths is actually 50% higher than previously reported. Expect more such revisions upwards though likely we will never know the true number since many bodies were disposed off in mass cremations, and I would not be surprised if the real number was at least 5 times higher than Beijing propaganda, all of which acts as accelerant on the War with China mega-trend as what the West is experiencing does not match that which China reported to the world to expect for which there will be a reckoning with China. As is the focus of my latest video based on excerpted analysis from my article made available to Patrons on the 6th of April.

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Politics

Friday, April 17, 2020

Coronavirus Attack is America's Pearl Harbor Moment - US Heading for War in South China Sea / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

WAR WITH CHINA MEGA-TREND

CHINA LIED ABOUT EVERYTHING! NUMBER OF INFECTED, NUMBER OF DEATHS THAT WERE LIKELY MORE THAN FIVES TIMES THAT WHICH THEY REPORTED TO THE WORLD!

If you have been following my analysis for sometime then you will be aware that one of the key mega-trend drivers of our time is the War with China mega-trend that I set forth in the following two pieces of in-depth analysis of what I expected to follow that were posted BEFORE Trump took office, a TREND that remains firmly in progress encompassing Trade, Economic, Cyber, Market, Corporate, Territory, Military and Nuclear!

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Politics

Monday, April 06, 2020

Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus catastrophe continues to unfold which makes a mockery of all those from the President downwards who used to peddle the line that it was not much worse than the flu. Well whilst many including the President have since changed their tune, however a significant number of people continue to not take it seriously stating that the high death rate is as a consequence of lack of testing..

However, if the coronavirus was little worse than the flu then as the US has now increased testing to over 100,000 per day then the case fatality rate should be falling. But that's not what's happening as the more the US tests then the higher the death rate climbs each day and each week.

So the problem with the not much worse than the flu assumption is that the Case Fatality Rates are INCREASING WITH MORE TESTING!

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Economics

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

China's Grand Plan to Take Over the World / Economics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today.

There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from.

But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question.

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Politics

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

China Is an Underrated Threat to the World / Politics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

In Hong Kong, somewhere between 1–2 million people (out of a 7+ million population) have taken to the streets protesting an extradition bill proposed by Beijing.

These protests have been ongoing and persistent. That the extradition bill has now been withdrawn is seemingly not enough to satisfy a smaller but active protest group.

And then came the furor over the NBA. The general manager of the Houston Rockets, Daryl Morey, tweeted out a small and rather innocuous message of support for the Hong Kong protesters.

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Politics

Saturday, September 14, 2019

War Gaming the US-China Trade War / Politics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler: People respond to incentives. So do national governments. This is foundational to both economics and geopolitics.
Carefully examining each side’s incentives can illuminate how a conflict will end. No one has infinite choices. They choose from limited options.

That applies to the US-China trade war, which is right now one of our top economic issues. So let’s think through what the players really want, and what each can actually do.

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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Trade Tariff Economic Damage Spreading in US, China within Target in H2 2019 / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.

After an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), participants said that China seeks to make its fiscal policy more effective and to maintain “reasonably ample” liquidity.

Instead of resorting to a stimulus in the real estate market, the emphasis will be on “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.” It is a challenging balancing act, but the right stance in the right time.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 02, 2019

Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.

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Politics

Sunday, June 16, 2019

US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

When an emerging power attempts to supplant a hegemonic power in international politics, major conflict often ensues. This is the definition of “The Thucydides Trap” as explained in a recent op-ed piece in The Japan Times.

The Thucydides Trap (pronounced “thu”, like you have a heavy lisp + sid + idees) is a term invented by Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Alison has been saying since 2015 that war between a rising power, China, and an established power, the United States, is inevitable, based on historical examples. The argument is fleshed out in his book, 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’sTrap?'

Allison’s Thucydides Trap has become a popular topic of conversation among the chattering classes in these troubling times in America, especially with a loose cannon like Trump as the tweeter-in-chief who has the keys to the nuclear button. As positions in the trade dispute get more entrenched, and issues like Huawei crop up, many are talking about a march to war with a new adversary: China.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

US is Winning Trade War with China...for Now / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.

The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market US China Trade War Panic - Video / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!

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Politics

Sunday, May 12, 2019

US Will Increase Pressure on Hong Kong In An Attempt to Cripple China's Growing Tech Influence / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Behind the Huawei story, we must not forget there is a wider financial war being waged by America against China and Russia. Stories about China’s banks being short of dollars are incorrect: the shortage is of inward capital flows to support the US Government’s budget deficit. By attracting those global portfolio flows instead, China’s Belt and Road Initiative threatens US Government finances, so the financial war and associated disinformation can be expected to escalate. Hong Kong is likely to be in the firing line, due to its role in providing China with access to international finance.

Hong Kong in Trouble?

Last week, The Wall Street Journal published an article claiming China’s banks are running out of dollars. Clearly, this is untrue. China’s banks can acquire dollars any time they want, either by selling other foreign currencies in the market, or by selling renminbi to the People’s bank. They have their dollar position because they choose to have it, and furthermore all commercial banks use derivatives, which are effectively off-balance sheet exposure. Furthermore, with the US running a substantial trade deficit with China, dollars are flooding in all the time.

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Politics

Thursday, May 02, 2019

Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

Whoever has an army has power.” - Mao Zedong

In March Italy broke ranks with its EU partners in joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative, known also as One Belt, One Road or the New Silk Road.

Students of history know the original “Silk Road” refers to the ancient network of trading routes between China and Europe, which served as both a conduit for the movement of goods, and an exchange of ideas, for centuries.

The “New Silk Road” is the term for an ambitious trade corridor first proposed by the Chinese regime under its current president, Xi Jinping, in 2013. The grand design also known, confusingly, as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a “belt” of overland corridors and a “road” of shipping lanes.

It consists of a vast network of railways, pipelines, highways and ports that would extend west through the mountainous former Soviet republics and south to Pakistan, India and southeast Asia.

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Politics

Wednesday, February 06, 2019

A Cold War with China Spells Trouble for Stocks / Politics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

Last week, George Soros said that we are in a cold war with China that could turn into a hot war. While Soros and I don’t often agree on politics, I did find my head nodding at times in his latest CNBC interview. 

Then Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees wrote about change in the geopolitical climate, which is not his usual beat.

Gromen argues that US national security may be more important than risk asset performance for the first time in decades.
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Economics

Thursday, January 24, 2019

If China Falls, so Will America / Economics / China US Conflict

By: John_Mauldin

The US and China are the world’s largest and second-largest economies.

They are also entwined in so many ways that it’s hard to tell where one ends and the other starts. Some call it “Chimerica.” which is an apt description.

But that’s not bad.

International trade promotes peace and prosperity for all. It’s not always smooth, evenly distributed, or free of issues. But such is the nature of great affairs.

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Politics

Saturday, July 14, 2018

China vs the US - The Road to War / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

In 2016 Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump’s former chief strategist, declared that there was no doubt, in his mind, that the US would go to war with China in the South China Sea in the next five to 10 years.

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Politics

Friday, July 13, 2018

Trump US Trade War With China, Europe Consequences, Implications and Forecasts / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

And so the Trade War begins as Trump delivers on his 'America First' election slogan where at the top of his agenda is for a destructive Trade War against not just China but the whole world, which Trump sees as correcting decades of erroneous US trade policies that saw the Chinese totalitarian state literally handed trillions of dollars to invest in it's civil and military infrastructure, modernising it's third world economy at an unprecedented lightening speed, trillions of dollars coupled with valuable intellectual property stolen from the West that has put China on the fast track towards ultimately threatening US global supremacy with their own Empire that Trump chaotically has tasked himself towards preventing.

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Politics

Friday, July 06, 2018

Trump Destroying US Empire in Trade War Against China, Europe and Canada / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

And so the Trade War begins as Trump delivers on his 'America First' election slogan where at the top of his agenda is for a destructive Trade War against not just China but the whole world, which Trump sees as correcting decades of erroneous US trade policies that saw the Chinese totalitarian state literally handed trillions of dollars to invest in it's civil and military infrastructure, modernising it's third world economy at an unprecedented lightening speed, trillions of dollars coupled with valuable intellectual property stolen from the West that has put China on the fast track towards ultimately threatening US global supremacy with their own Empire that Trump chaotically has tasked himself towards preventing.

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