Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Crude Oil Price Technical Juncture / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil gained 1.24% as rig count declined to the lowest level ever. Thanks to this news, light crude hit a fresh March high, but will we see further rally in the coming week?
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, March 12, 2016
$67 Crude Oil Price Has All The Majors Converging Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Argentina offers one of the few places on earth where oil companies are not suffering from the full force of the collapse in prices.
Argentina regulates oil prices, a policy originally intended to insulate the public from the whims of the market, protecting people from triple-digit crude prices. But with the crash in prices since mid-2014, the effect of the regulation has reversed: motorists are now effectively subsidizing the oil industry.
Tuesday, March 01, 2016
Why Oil Booms And Busts Happen / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
What if I told you that there was a period in history where oil demand declined by 5 million barrels per day and non-OPEC supply increased by 5 million barrels per day, yet oil price rallied more than 50 percent? Would you believe me? If your answer is yes, then you guessed right. This was the period from 1979 to 1985; it was a period during which global oil demand declined from over 61 million barrels to 56 million barrels and non-OPEC supply increased from 32 million barrels to 37 million barrels. Yet prices rallied from $17 a barrel in 1979 to $26 a barrel in 1985, while reaching as high as $35 in 1981.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
This is a financial cold war—nothing more, nothing less.
While there are billions of reasons to cut output, and every major producing country is reeling from the loss of revenues, some are weathering the current bust better than others, but the devil is in the details, and the details contain tons of variables.
Production cost and breakeven figures that analysts enjoy bandying can trap you in bubble of black-and-white mathematics that is a few brush-strokes shy of a full picture.
Monday, February 22, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottom, Forecast to Double Before End of 2016 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price last close of $32 stands $6 higher than its recent multi-year bear market low of $26. Whilst little has changed fundamentally so far in terms of supply i.e. OPEC and others are still pumping flat out and Iran continues to ramp up production, nevertheless demand destruction of many smaller oil producers operating at below break even prices is finally starting to be discounted by the market.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
OPEC Lost the Shale-Oil-War: Deflation Looms / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
In the unspoken plan to shut down what the oil-aristocrats called, “high cost producers”, let’s call that the Shale-Oil-War, the war-word was never mentioned. But it was war and there were casualties, Big-Time. There will be more bankruptcies in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector and painful write-downs by the banks who supported it; many once oil-rich countries have been pushed into recession and the ripples are traveling down the value chain...there are long lines of cold-stacked brand-new drilling barges built on credit, closed steel plants and the mines that fed them, all the way through to the FAO Food-price Index that tracks oil prices. No wonder China is in some sort of recession, they were the final assembly point for a good part of the stuff you need to get oil out of the ground.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 12, 2016
T. Boone Pickens On Obama Oil Tax: "Dumbest Idea Ever" / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The Obama administration's proposed $10.25 per barrel oil tax adds up to approximately $32 billion a year, and critics are coming out of the woodwork in defense of both the oil industry and end users who would foot the bill for transportation system reforms-but it may be a moot point since the effort will simply be killed off by Congress.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Crude Oil Price Continues to Drill Downward / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Last week's forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit. As of last Friday, the Dow has fallen 438 points since last Monday's high.
Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 08, 2016
Crude Oil's True Message / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Michael_Pento
The pervasive narrative on Wall Street is that the collapse in oil prices will, any second now, restore consumers to their profligate spending ways. In fact, financial pundits have been calling for plunging energy prices to imminently rescue the economy for the past 18 months. Most importantly, these same gurus, who love to espouse the benefits of a collapse in oil prices, never connect the dots to what this collapse says about the state of global growth. Instead they argue it is solely a function of a supply glut that is the result of increased production.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 07, 2016
Why Crude Oil Prices Could Continue FALLING From Here / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jesse
By Brett Eversole
Friday, February 05, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bottoms and Blues / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: DeviantInvestor
Crude oil prices have dropped from about $106 in June of 2014 to briefly under $30 in January of 2016 – down about 74% peak to trough. This appears to be an on-going disaster for oil companies, the banks who loaned money to frackers, oil exporting countries, global stock markets and others.
Conventional wisdom suggests that crude oil prices will stay low for a long time because of low demand (global recession), huge supply (Iran, fracking, etc.), decline in commodity prices globally, and at least ten more reasons.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 04, 2016
Crude Oil Price Forecast 2016 As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Russo
In observing the enormous triple digit percentage gains achieved amid Crude Oil's northward thrusts versus its debilitating double digit losses during its major spills, it becomes rather clear why market participants prefer buying low in a newly forming bull market vs. selling short at the onset of a bear market.
On a relative basis, in the not too distant future, a cyclical bottom will form and the long-term trend in Crude will reverse to the upside - providing bullish speculators with yet another rare opportunity at the chance of humongous triple digit upside returns.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? 60 Reasons Why Investors Should Hang On / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Inventories will continue to rise, but the momentum is slowing.
The following are some observations as to how we got here and how we're gonna get out.
9 reasons why oil has taken so long to bottom:
1. OPEC increased production in 2015 to multiyear highs, principally in Saudi Arabia and Iraq where production between the two added 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to inventories after the no cut stance was adopted.
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Will Crude Oil Prices Rebound in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oilprice.com recently spoke with Carl Larry, Director of Oil and Gas at Frost & Sullivan, a consultancy that conducts research on oil and gas markets, to get his thoughts on the state of oil in 2016.
Oilprice.com: I saw that you were on Bloomberg in December, and you said that you thought oil would go to the low $30s per barrel, which was a good call at the time, before OPEC would sort of relent. Do you see any chance that OPEC can actually coordinate any production cuts?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 22, 2016
Crude Oil Price Bear Market Bottom? As WTIC Pops Back Over $30 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price hit a new low on Wednesday of just under $27, prompting many doom merchants to emerge to proclaim / reaffirm that $20 and even $10 is on the horizon. However, on following day the oil price rallied strongly to just shy of $30 to end Thursday at $29.85 and this morning has popped just above $30 to currently stand at $30.20. With the key question being asked is are we witnessing the early stages of an oil price bottom (WTIC) or is this just a few days of calm before the next oil price crash storm?
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Crude Oil Foretells Additional Ruble Losses / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: AnyOption
Warnings from the IEA and new lows in key global benchmarks continues to weigh on the outlook for energy prices, hurting the foremost global oil and gas exporters. Russia has experienced a reversed rags to riches tale over the last two years as the impact of sanctions and the slump in the energy patch have kept the Ruble under extreme pressure. The underperformance continues to echo the losses in oil prices as the supply and demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, only set to grow in coming months with the expansion of Iranian crude oil exports. With market dynamics expected to be weak and existing projections forecasting no rebound in prices, the weakness in the Ruble is only likely to accelerate over time, matching losses in oil prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Will the Crude Oil Price Crash become even Worse in 2016? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Sol_Palha
A patient mind is the best remedy for trouble-
Plaut
2015 was not a good year for speculators trying to time the oil markets. Oil kept cutting through each support level like a hot knife cutting through butter. It would give the appearance that it was ready to mount a rally, but that rally would fade, and oil prices would drift lower. We penned an article in Nov of last year, where we stated that oil would have to close above $50 on a weekly basis for it to see higher prices. However, it failed to do that and drifted lower. When it closed below $32 on a weekly basis, it neutralized any tiny bullish signals it was issuing in 2015. Is oil close to putting in a bottom or will it once again let everyone down and plunge into a series of new lows. There is a saying that the cure for low prices is lower prices and vice versa; having said, that we expect one final wave of selling before oil bottoms out and starts to trend slowly upwards. We do not expect any violent upward reversals unless the situation between Iran and Saudi heats up to the point that a new war breaks out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Crude Oil Hit $32... But The Worst Is Yet To Come / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Harry_Dent
On August 5 last year I forecast that oil would hit $32 or a bit lower by January.And it’s happened right on cue!
Along with iron ore and coal (down 70%-plus), oil has been one of the worst-performing commodities – down 80% from its 2008 top. And ultimately it’s headed lower, all the way to $10 or $20. I’ve been saying this since oil was $115, and look where we are now!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Oil price Slump Leads To Shale 2.0, The Great Crew Change, And COP21 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Alfidi Capital writes: The oil sector's bear attack shows no signs of abating. OPEC's Saudi-led push for huge overproduction is driving the US shale sector to the brink of collapse. The post-crash survivors can benefit from "Shale 2.0" technologies that keep their costs down. They will need every advantage they can get when the "Great Crew Change" makes finding human talent harder and the UN's COP21 protocols make hydrocarbon production less desirable.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Crude Oil Price Stabilises above $30 Following New U.S. Sanctions Imposed on Duped Iran / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price reversed direction Monday to climb back above $30 (WTIC) as the market has started to discount the probability that the Iranians have been duped into given up nuclear weaponry, in a perpetual U.S. game of sanctions for ever for the purpose of Iran being systematically disarmed of it's military capacity much as Iraq was disarmed before a pretext for invasion was manufactured by the Intelligence Agencies all to appease the Saudi and Israeli fundamentalist states (Islamic and Jewish).