Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 24, 2022
Are I-Bonds Predicting a drop in Inflation ? / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A patron commented - Interesting take on inflation: the US Treasury I-bonds (which one can invest $10k each year) will pay an annualized interest from November 1, 2022, through April 2023 of 6.89%, down from the 9.62% rate offered since May 2022. Probably an indicator that the inflation stats that are forthcoming will show we’ve peaked. https://treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
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Monday, November 21, 2022
CPLIE - The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
People need to learn to forget about graphs such as this (Annual percentage change in CPLIE) -
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Friday, November 18, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION IS a RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The Inflation Mega-trend
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
As for the United States, shadow stats does a good job of calculating the real rate of inflation which ia based on the US governments own 1980 formulae that resolves to 13.5% vs 8.2%.
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Tuesday, November 01, 2022
The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..
I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
TIPS BONDS FAKE INFLATION PROTECTION! / Interest-Rates / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
How to protect one self form INFLATION! Well what the investment industry sold to their clients were Inflation Protected Bond funds! The sales pitch went that when Inflation soars and regular bonds fall don't worry you are protected so given that inflation has taken off like a rocket have these bond funds delivered on their sales pitch?
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Thursday, October 20, 2022
UK in CRISIS - Liz Truss Resigns, Inflation Nightmare, Soaring Interest Rates, Economic CRASH! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have a Dogs dinner of a Tory government, waste of space Quasi Modo has gone, next will be Liz Trustless what a pair of idiots, Hunt, the Hunt as Chancellor is only good for reading scripts he gets given!, Come on Boris come back, all is forgiven, what was the worst under Johnson, parties, stoopid media wasted thousands of air time on parties! MSM Is an irrelevance, dumb, blind, completely clueless, after all they are Journalists NOT analysts, they don't have a clue! Quasi has gone, so will Trussless and it could even be as soon as today! Definitely before the end of October, she will be GONE! GOOD RIDDANCE to Britain's worst Prime Minister ever! And paving the way for Britain's first brown Prime Minister!
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Sunday, September 25, 2022
INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -
1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?
2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2022
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The idiot in charge of the Bank of England Bailey now warns of 13% inflation, 5 quarter deep uk recession, and requests Britains workers not ask for high pay rises due to the risks of the wage price spiral, despite paying himself 575,000 for making a dogs dinner of the economy. So are his predictions going to come true, we'll a year ago he was barking about transitory inflation and a growing economy ahead! Completely clueless idiot!
The problem is this the Bank of England CAUSED the INFLATION by means of rampant money printing that they then used to monetize near half of UK government debt! That's what caused the inflation! And now the morons are trying to fight 10% inflation with 1.75% interest rate, Bailey and his fellow morons do not have clue, they are literally fumbling in the dark for the light switch and we pay the price for these clowns!
As for the wage price spiral, it does not exist, there is no wage price spiral instead it is a price wage spiral! i.e. Wages are trying to catch up to out of control inflation and failing to do so hence the cost of living crisis where wages cannot keep up with prices in the shop.
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Saturday, August 06, 2022
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! / Economics / Inflation
By: N_Walayat
The Inept Governor of the Bank of England has miserably FAILED in the banks primary remit of pegging inflation at 2%. This video illustrates why the Cost of Living Crisis will soon become a decade long nightmare for most Brits.
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Friday, August 05, 2022
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
When one looks under CPI inflation hood then one sees strong signs of inflation topping, given what we have already seen transpire in the commodities markets such as Gasoline prices having fallen since the May inflation report and many of the components such as Airfares also turning lower.
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Friday, July 29, 2022
How to lock in a Guaranteed 9.6% return from Uncle Sam With I Bonds / Personal_Finance / Inflation
By: Submissions
By Chris ReillyDo you want to turn inflation to your advantage?
Be a financial winner while everyone else is losing to inflation?
Today, I’ll show you a little-known investment that can do exactly this for a part of your portfolio.
Best of all… it’s guaranteed by the US government.
You’ll want to act on this soon. Because inflation just keeps getting worse.
On July 13, the government released the latest numbers...
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Friday, July 22, 2022
Why UK Cost of Living Crisis Will Get X10 Worse! Britain Heading for INFLATION CATASTROPHE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK CPI inflation has just nudged higher to 9.4% that is prompting the always wrong crowd to crow loudly about how peak inflation being just around the corner, however the herd remains completely blind to what is set to follow over the remainder of this decade and the funnel all of their weak brain power into regurgitating the same annual percentage change graphs, all whilst missing the Inflation big picture that warns that even if peak inflation i just around the corner to soon to be followed by inflation falling to say 6% or even 5%, however this is not going to make any difference to the INFLATION PAIN that is going to manifest over the coming years,
Britain's inflation goose is well and truly cooked as our inept government and even more moronic central bank have sleep walked Britain to back to the 1970;s which will manifest in a cost of living crisis that most are unprepared for as my latest video illustrates.
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Friday, July 15, 2022
Peak Inflation is Not the Issue / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
The reality of record-high inflation combined with a hawkish monetary policy is slowing the economy sharply and has led to the current U.S. recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The economic contraction should soon cause inflation to roll over along with bond yields; but that isn’t necessarily indicative of a new bull market. It is much the same process that occurred leading up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.The major difference is that the level of inflation today is much greater than it was 15 years ago--a white-hot 9.1% for June of 2022, which is actually close to 20% if calculated using the same method back in 1980. That level is much greater than the 4.1% in December of 2007. Inflation may be peaking, but it is peaking at over 4.5x greater than the Fed’s target. Meaning, the FOMC will find it very difficult to give up its inflation fight anytime soon. It would be a different story if the Effective Fed Funds Rate was trading close to the Fed’s neutral range, which Mr. Powell believes is close to 2.5%, not the 1.58% seen today. With CPI at 9.1% and its balance sheet at $8.9 trillion, it is untenable for the Fed to remain stimulative to inflation. Indeed, the FOMC wants the interbank lending rate at 3.5-4.0% by the end of 2022.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2022
The Inflation Mega-trend and UK House Prices - Housing Market Analysis Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation has soared to a 30+ year high even on the highly manipulated CPLIE measure resulting in the biggest fall in living standards since records began for the UK and probably similar for US and most western households who are in for a deep real terms drop in disposable income during 2022, with the UK set for an eye watering record plunge of over £2200 per household. Which if you remained focused on the mainstream press then you would not have seen any of it coming having been hoodwinked for the whole of 2021 by the central bank mantra of 'transient inflation' which as I repeatedly warned would turn out to be PERMANENT. However the con merchants are now playing the blame everything on Russia game, as if inflation and all of the West woes were none existant until Putin delusionally marched his amateur army into Ukraine having believed his own lies echoed by his YES Men ensuring him that victory would come within days of invasion.
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Sunday, June 12, 2022
Shrinkflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets enter summer trading with investors looking for signs of a directional move.
Gold and silver prices consolidated this spring with silver showing more of a downside bias. Silver did find 200-week moving average support at the $21 level in early May, however. That long-term trend indicator is also now heading in an upward direction. So, there is a good chance that the lows for the year are in.
Metals markets have yet to fully reflect broader inflation pressures in the economy, a statement you’ve heard us repeat many times in recent months.
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Friday, June 10, 2022
Food and Gas Prices: Is the Rising Trend (Finally) Ending? / Economics / Inflation
By: EWI
The Elliott wave structure of a key commodity ETF provides a clue
Consumers around the globe are wondering when they will finally see some relief from rising prices at the gas pump and grocery store.
It's difficult for these consumers to get a handle on what to expect from reading recent headlines because some are conflicting.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
Inflation Mutation - This is not your Grandpa’s Inflation problem / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
The Fed is starting to play catch-up with inflation signals from the bond market as evidenced by the Fed Funds Rate finally being pulled upward by the implications of the rising 3 month T-bill yield, among other more obvious signals like the long since rising 2yr Treasury yield and ongoing inflation headlines we read about every day.
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Saturday, June 04, 2022
White House Inflation Scapegoat / Politics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
As the Biden administration scrambles to try to contain inflation – or at least make a public relations show of it – precious metals investors are wondering how much longer gold and silver prices will remain contained.
Metals markets got a bit of a lift this week through Thursday but have pulled back a bit here today. As of this Friday recording, gold is flat for the week now to trade at $1,860 per ounce. And silver is down 20 cents or 0.9% this week to trade at $22.12 an ounce.
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Friday, May 27, 2022
How the United States Conquered Inflation Following the Civil War / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
By Larry Reed : Americans today are once again the victims of price inflation brought on by runaway government spending and printing of unbacked paper money.
According to the most recent polling data, the American public’s approval of Congress stands at a dismal 21 percent. Almost four times as many people disapprove of the job it’s doing.
That’s par for the course in recent decades. It’s the major reason the Washington sausage grinder earns so little praise. To be fair, though, let’s review an occasion when lawmakers got something right. I’m prompted to share this story now because its lessons are especially relevant considering today’s concerns about rising price inflation. The year was 1875.
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Friday, May 20, 2022
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A reminder folks that regardless of Fed propaganda and what you read in the mainstream press QE is 4 EVER! Once it starts it will not stop. As I have been iterating for over a decade now as the following excerpt from 3 years ago illustrates (Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019) that CRISIS ARE MONEY PRINTING EVENTS TO CAPITALISE UPON BY INVESTING IN ASSETS THAT ARE LEVERAGED TO INFLATION!
So why has the the stock market soared, what is that the stock market knows that most commentators and economists fail to comprehend? We'll for one thing there are the dovish signals out of the Fed which go beyond a pause in their interest rate hiking cycle in response to a subdued inflation outlook. Similarly the worlds other major central banks have their own reasons to avoid rate hikes, most notable of which is the Bank of England that has been busy propagandising the prospects of a NO Deal Brexit Armageddon in attempts to scare Westminister into avoiding EXITING the European Union in anything other than an ultra soft BrExit.
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