Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 18, 2021
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.
They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.
Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So called transitory US inflation surged to 5.4% for September remaining sticky at above 5% with little signs of moderation and thus likely to prompt the Fed to taper in the near future to signal intentions to bring inflation down to 2% in 2 years time as their 'transitory' propaganda smoke screen is wearing thin. Of course real US inflation in is at least double official fake CPI. Whilst the real rate of inflation in the UK is even worse, likely 3 to 4 times official CPI i.e. about 15% to 20%.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!
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Saturday, October 30, 2021
Central Planners Clinging to Hope That Inflation Is “Transitory” / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As trading closes out for October ahead of Halloween, the specter of inflation is haunting markets.
While some investors still cling to the hope that it will be transitory, a growing number are now worried that pricing pressures and even shortages will intensify heading into Christmas – and possibly get worse in 2022. Discussions of the term “hyperinflation” have even made the rounds on social media following a warning from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.
More on that in a bit. But first, let’s review this week’s price action in precious metals markets.
Gold over the past few trading days has been oscillating around the $1,800 level. Prices currently come in at $1,783 an ounce to register a weekly decline of 0.9%.
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Tuesday, October 19, 2021
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets / Commodities / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
A big week for precious metals markets as inflation pressures push consumer prices to painful new heights.
On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that inflation at the wholesale level is up 8.6% from a year ago. That’s the steepest annual advance since the data started being reported.
Of course, Americans who have shopped at a grocery store recently or tried to rent or buy a car don’t need to read a government report to discover that prices are surging. In many respects, inflation is even worse than reported officially.
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Sunday, October 17, 2021
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Sunday, October 03, 2021
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All / Economics / Inflation
By: P_Radomski_CFA
At a panel discussion, Fed Chair finally admitted that inflation could be more (!) long-lasting than expected. What does it mean? Hawks. Lots of them.
Capitulation
With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally having his ‘come-to-Jesus’ moment on Sep. 29, the central bank chief’s skittish words helped light a fire under the USD Index. For context, I’ve been warning for months that Powell remains materially behind the inflation curve. And with his indecisive speech upending the Fed’s confidence game, the gambit is showing signs of unraveling.
Speaking at an ECB panel discussion on Sep. 29, he said:
“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end. It’s very difficult to say how big the effects will be in the meantime or how long they last.”
For context, first it was “base effects,” then it was “transitory” and now “it’s very difficult to say.”
Friday, September 10, 2021
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
Our 30 year Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ chart indicates that deflation is the dominant trend, but…
Steve Saville has written a post that got me thinking about carts and horses and more precisely, which comes before which. Is the inflationary horse pulling the deflationary cart up hill or is the deflationary cart leading the horse to drink from the shrinking liquidity pool periodically?
See The Crisis-Monetisation Cycle
In conclusion to this short post Steve asserts…
Read full article... Read full article...“The crisis-monetisation cycle doesn’t end in deflation. The merest whiff of deflation just encourages central bankers and politicians to do more to boost prices. In fact, the occasional deflation scare is necessary to keep the cycle going. The cycle only ends when most voters see “inflation” as the biggest threat to their personal economic prospects.”
Tuesday, August 31, 2021
Inflation Properly Defined / Economics / Inflation
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The use or rather misuse of language has always been an effective tool of politicians to enact their agendas. George Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” brilliantly showed, in his day, how language was being manipulated for all sorts of totalitarian measures:
Read full article... Read full article...Political language — and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists — is designed to make lies sound truthful
and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one’s own habits, and from time to time one can even, if one jeers loudly enough, send some worn-out and useless phrase — some jackboot, Achilles’ heel, hotbed, melting pot, acid test, veritable inferno, or other lump of verbal refuse — into the dustbin, where it belongs.*
Saturday, August 14, 2021
Everything Peaked in 1980 – The Waning Effects Of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
EVERYTHING PEAKED IN 1980
Both gold and crude oil peaked at all-time highs in 1980. Those highs are still intact when the effects of inflation are accounted for. Below are the charts for both gold and crude oil…
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Wednesday, August 11, 2021
Why the Fed is Wrong About 'transitory' Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Mills
If rising food prices are ruining your appetite, you’re not alone.
Costs of a number of grocery staples have been rising all year, including some that haven’t gone up in decades, such as peanut butter. Meats are seeing large increases, with the price of chicken climbing 8%, and pork and beef increasing about 5%.
According to Statistics Canada, via CTV News, two breakfast ‘staples,’ coffee and peanut butter have gone up significantly since January, a respective 17% and 6%. Canada’s Food Price Report predicts that prices will increase 5% this year, adding almost $700 to the average Canadian family’s grocery bill.
In the United States, US consumer prices hit their highest level in 13 years in May, jumping 5% from May 2020. The US Department of Labor says rising costs of meat products and baked goods led the surge in food prices.
“We’re in a period of unprecedented commodity inflation,” Unilever CEO Alan Jope told investors in early June.
According to Business Insider, US food prices are rising in tandem with broader inflation, with the CPI hitting 5.4% in June. Prices are climbing due to key commodities becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, shipping delays, labor shortages (for example in meat packing plants, hit hard by covid-19) and severe droughts in a number of countries (more on that below).
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Tuesday, August 10, 2021
Here’s What You Should Do About Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler - “What should I do about inflation?”My Uber driver recently asked me this after I told her what I do for a living.
And she’s not the only one asking me this question.
My mom… brother… friends who’ve never bought a stock in their lives… and many of you who read my essays every week want to know the same thing:
Why are pricing soaring? Should I do anything to prepare?
And most importantly…
What should I do with my current investments?
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Thursday, August 05, 2021
Political Hacks Concoct Excuses for Their Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Jerome Powell, after last week’s FOMC meeting, said inflation has run hotter than expected. However, he wants to assure Americans that the destruction of their dollars’ purchasing power is temporary.
His diagnosis? Ballooning demand for goods and services when the U.S. economy reopened from COVID shutdowns drove prices higher.
Rest easy, folks. Prices will stop surging as soon as demand moderates and supply catches up!
That’s the official line, anyway.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2021
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda / Commodities / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As the summer doldrums drag on, precious metals bulls are eying potential support levels for a seasonal bottom.
The gold market found support at the $1,750 level last month and has since been trading with a slight upside bias. Although the price action hasn’t been especially exciting, base building in these summer months can be a healthy technical process in the context of a larger bull market.
Meanwhile, investors are weighing troubling developments on the inflation front. Price increases are hitting consumers every time they shop, and that trend shows no signs of letting up.
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Saturday, July 24, 2021
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials / Politics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
This week he superficially addressed the problem by admitting the obvious – that prices have been rising rapidly this year – while denying that the inflation surge represents anything out of the ordinary.
“Some folks have raised worries that this could be a sign of persistent inflation, but that’s not our view,” Biden said. “Our experts believe and the data shows that most of the price increases we’ve seen [were] expected and expected to be temporary.”
Trust the experts! After all, when have they been wrong about anything…besides wars and pandemics?
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Sunday, July 18, 2021
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the markets react to the somewhat shocking CPI and Inflation data while Q2:2021 earnings continue to roll across the news wires, we wanted to take a minute to explore the recent Fed comments related to “Transitory Inflation” and what that really means.
For those of you not familiar with the word ‘transitory’ (in conjunction with inflation) according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, Transitory means:
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Monday, July 05, 2021
FED: U.S. Cocktail of Growth and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The inflationary cauldron continues to boil. However, the USDX and Treasuries are undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects. What’s going on?
The Rising Tide of Inflation
While investors are all-in on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) “transitory” narrative, the inflationary cauldron continues to boil. Case in point: the IHS Markit released its manufacturing PMI on Jul. 1 and the report read that “June PMI data from IHS Markit signaled the joint-fastest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector on record.”
Saturday, July 03, 2021
Central Banks RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! US Trending Towards Hyperinflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I know it can get a bit tiring to hear me bang on with the mantra of rampant money printing inflation, BUT one can tend to get lost in the detail i.e. looking at individual stocks and assets and forget the BIG PICTURE which really is one of RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION!
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Tuesday, June 29, 2021
Demand-Driven Price Hikes Are Underway / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, thinks most of the near-term inflation he foresees will be demand-driven. The fact that a lot of people have a lot of spending money will push prices even higher.At Mauldin Economics' 2021 Strategic Investment Conference, he posed the question: Where did this cash come from? Check out this chart...
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Monday, June 21, 2021
Feel the Inflationary Heartbeat / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Not all inflation is created equal. Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, has his finger on the economy’s pulse. And for the last year or so, he’s felt an inflationary heartbeat.Peter, who is the author of The Boock Report, in which he flash-analyzes the latest economic data in handy bite-size multiple emails per day, makes an important distinction between goods inflation and services inflation.
At Mauldin Economics' 2021 Strategic Investment Conference in May, Peter explained that they have been behaving differently. Looking at services inflation (ex-energy) within the Consumer Price Index, he showed that it averaged around 2.8% in the 20-year period leading up to the pandemic.
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