Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 16, 2017
British Election Sends Shockwaves Felt Here and Abroad / Politics / UK Politics
By: John_Browne
Last week's General Election in the United Kingdom was a disaster for the new conservative government of Prime Minster Theresa May. Having called the unnecessary "snap" elections in order to strengthen her political hand, the result actually reduced the number of seats held by the conservatives and delivered large gains to the opposition Labour party, which had seemed in disarray just a few months ago. Although she has announced no plans to step down, her position has been severely weakened, possibly fatally. More pointedly, the UK's hand in negotiating favorable Brexit terms has eroded substantially. Besides creating significant ramifications for the European and global economy, the election also provides important lessons for the potential state of American politics.
Friday, June 16, 2017
Grenfell Tower Cladding Fire Disaster, 4,000 Ticking Time Bombs, Sheffield Council Flats Panic! / Politics / Health and Safety
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The residents Grenfell Tower have paid the heavy price for the cladding refurbishment craze that has been sweeping Britain for the past decade. One of 30 to 50 year old social housing tower blocks, many of which that should have been demolished but instead are being dolled up with cladding and insulation to reduce energy costs to make them externally more appealing to both residents, visitors and most importantly nearby affluent areas as was the case with Grenfell Tower, a pocket of social housing in Kensington, probably the most affluent area of Britain. An area where millionaires can be found living within 100 metres of taxi drivers, refugees and the other low paid workers necessary for the functioning of London. The rich just could not stand the view form their mansions as they looked out upon modernist concrete tower blocks, so they rich got their way as most of the nations concrete tower blocks have been all cladded up.
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
From OSS to CIA Ongoing Clash with Military Intelligence / Politics / Intelligence Agencies
By: BATR
For all those supporters of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's war, many admire the exploits of the OSS in Europe. While historians for the allied legions adopt the account that circumstances dictated the creation and use of the British, Special Operations Executive, which Churchill proclaimed, to 'set Europe aflame'; the precedent left a heritage of intervention that few ever warned about the nature of counter-offensive missions. Gathering intelligence on adversaries is valid and even necessary to defend your country. However, to establish contingents of lethal assassins is a fundamental departure from intelligence procurement. During World War II the American version of clandestine operations put into motion a competing and dangerous rival to the traditional role of military intelligence.
Monday, June 12, 2017
US-China Ties in the Shadow of the Mueller Investigation / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the foreseeable future, the Trump administration will be constrained by the special counsel’s Russia investigation. How will it impact the White House’s relations with China?It was a strange month. First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), who the center-right Democrats blame for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 electoral loss. In turn, the center-left Sanders-supporters attribute the loss to Hillary Clinton’s gross abuse of public office and funds, Bill Clinton’s corrupt Global Initiative, collusion with the Democratic Leadership Committee (DLC) and mainstream media.
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Monday, June 12, 2017
Will Trump Get Away With All of It? / Politics / US Politics
By: Michael_T_Bucci
The good news for Trumptarians is that Donald J. Trump is not going to be legally impeached, indicted, removed from office or otherwise until his protectors and enablers are weakened first: Congressional Republicans. And they won’t be weakened until mid-term elections in 2018. In “Washington time” that might as well be the next century.
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Sunday, June 11, 2017
Trump's UK Visit on Hold / Politics / UK Politics
By: Stephen_Lendman
It may be cancelled altogether. Reportedly he told Prime Minister Theresa May he won't come until Brits support him - highly unlikely any time ahead.
He doesn't want to visit London if large-scale protests are planned during his visit.
Days after his inauguration, in response to May revealing he accepted Queen Elizabeth's invitation to come, anti-Trump campaigners used social media, calling for London's "biggest protest ever."
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Friday, June 09, 2017
Why The US’ Withdrawal From The Paris Climate Agreement Makes Sense / Politics / Climate Change
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : 70 years ago, US Secretary of State George Marshall gave a speech at Harvard University. Few speeches in modern times have had as much geopolitical consequence.
In just eight paragraphs, Marshall made the case for significant US involvement in Europe’s economic reconstruction after World War II.
Within 10 months, the United States passed the Foreign Assistance Act of 1948. Better known as the Marshall Plan, it provided over $13 billion to 16 European countries (about $150 billion in 2017 dollars).
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
UK Thin Blue Police Line - Those Were the May Days / Politics / UK Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Is it sheer hubris, or is it just incompetence? It’s a question often asked when it comes to politics. And regularly, the answer is both. Still, what the ruling British political class has put on display recently seems to exist in a category all its own. Less than a year go, then-PM David Cameron lost the Brexit referendum that he called himself and was dead sure he would win by a landslide.
His successor Theresa May, Cameron’s Home Secretary and a staunch Remain advocate, lost the Brexit vote as much as her PM did, but stayed on, was promoted, and acted for 11 months like Downing Street 10 was hers by Divine Decree. Then she did the exact same thing Cameron did: she looked at polling numbers and decided to go for the jugular: more power through a snap vote.
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Wednesday, June 07, 2017
Here’s A Closer Look At North Korea’s Artillery Capabilities / Politics / North Korea
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : As Pyongyang, Washington, and other regional players prepare for the prospect of war, North Korea’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities have received undue amounts of attention. Important though they may be, they have less bearing on how the war will be fought than does North Korea’s conventional military.
Eliminating Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities would be the first objective in a war, and indeed the justification for an attack. The second objective would be to protect South Korea from North Korean retaliation.
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Tuesday, June 06, 2017
Liberals are losing their War of Terror on America / Politics / War on Terror
By: BATR
What do the latest London radical Islamic terrorist attacks have in common with the liberal/progressive anti-American cultural assault that has gone into extreme hyper drive with the election of Donald Trump as President? Only an apologist for the "politically correct" cancer that has infected Western Civilization would deny that allowing Wahhabism to infiltrate Europe and the US, while establishing the growing practices of Sharia law, is suicidal. Yet you will seldom see or read any criticism of the demonic Talmudic pedagogies and practices that have corrupted and perverted any moral claim that the loony left would make. Both factions are engaged in political Armageddon, based upon a false and demented orthodoxy. They profess submission. The Wahhabi-Salafis to Allah the other acceptance of a Halakhah distortion that justifies their professed superiority.
Tuesday, June 06, 2017
Orphaned Poisoned Waters,Severe Chronic Water Shortage Imminent / Politics / Environmental Issues
By: Richard_Mills
There's a lot of water on the planet we inhabit – an estimated 326 million trillion gallons or 1,260,000,000,000,000,000,000 liters. Hard to believe are reports water is going to get much dearer in our near term future – yet Peter Voser, chief executive of the world's second-largest energy company, Royal Dutch Shell, warned us, as far back as June 2011, that global demand for fresh water may outstrip supply by as much as 40 per cent in 20 years if current fresh-water consumption trends continue. And Voser isn’t the only one warning about future fresh water shortages…
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) predicts that by 2025, one-third of all humans will face severe and chronic water shortages.
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Tuesday, June 06, 2017
Donald Trump is an Economic Ignoramus! / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Not surprisingly, Donald Trump has followed in the infamous footsteps of his presidential predecessors in the transition from candidate to chief executive. Invariably, every candidate for the presidency makes a whole host of promises, the vast majority of which are horrible and typically only exacerbate the problems they attempt to resolve. Among the proposals, however, there is an occasional bright spot. Yet, once elected the stupid polices are eagerly pursued while the good ones are quickly discarded.
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Monday, June 05, 2017
UK’s Weaker Brexit Hand with the EU / Politics / BrExit
By: Dan_Steinbock
Prime Minister May pushed for a snap election in June 2017 to strengthen her hand in the impending Brexit talks. In practice, she has weakened UK's bargaining power at the EU’s expense, while the latest London Bridge incident introduces new uncertainty and volatility into the EU/UK divorce proceedings.Like too many times before, British police declared a “major incident” on London Bridge after a van reportedly hit multiple pedestrians.
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Monday, June 05, 2017
Regime Change in the Trump White House? / Politics / US Politics
By: Dan_Steinbock
No U.S. postwar president has managed to reset relations with Russia. Now the Trump administration must cope with a special counsel’s investigation. In the past, US efforts at regime change targeted foreign countries; today, the White House. How will it impact Trump’s stalled policy agenda?As I argued in spring 2016 (TWFR, April 25, 2016), US election is a global risk and it would continue to be fought after the Trump election win. But recently, these political struggles moved to an entirely new phase.
First, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismissed James Comey, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), reportedly only days after his request for increased resources to investigate Russia’s alleged interference in the election. Barely a week later, DOJ appointed Robert Mueller, former director of the FBI (2001-13) as special counsel overseeing the investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.
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Saturday, June 03, 2017
In Defense of Trumpian Diplomacy / Politics / US Politics
By: John_Browne
Given the media's obsession with some of the President Trump's communication challenges, it was utterly predictable that the President's declaration that his trip to Europe and the Middle East should be considered a "home run" was met almost universally with ridicule. In truth, the President actually did accomplish a series of victories overseas, or at least laid important groundwork that should help advance American interests in ways that prior Administrations have failed to do. It's a shame that these developments have been ignored among the din of partisanship.
Saturday, June 03, 2017
The US May Attack North Korea In Two Weeks / Politics / US Military
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The US Navy has announced that the USS Nimitz will leave Bremerton, Washington, on June 1 for the Western Pacific. This is the third carrier battle group to be sent to the region—enough to support a broader military mission. It will take about a week to get to its station, after which it will integrate with the fleet.
So here’s the situation: Soon the United States will have its naval force in waters near North Korea.
It already has strategic bombers in Guam, and it already has fighter aircraft in Japan and South Korea.
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Friday, June 02, 2017
Trump's 'Arab NATO' Vision is a Desert Mirage / Politics / US Politics
By: STRATFOR
Ever since Teddy Roosevelt began a tradition of overseas state visits when he headed to Panama to check on his canal project in 1906, American presidents have chosen the destination of their first overseas visit with foreign policy theater in mind. The majority, from Dwight D. Eisenhower to Barack Obama, stayed close to home to focus on North America or the Caribbean Basin. Others, from Woodrow Wilson to Jimmy Carter, crossed the Atlantic amid wars hot and cold. Donald Trump, however, is the first to choose the Middle East for his foreign debut. His reach, in this case, may well exceed his grasp, especially when it comes to the concept of building an "Arab NATO" to manage the region.
Thursday, June 01, 2017
President Trump’s Impending Resignation and Declaration of Victory / Politics / US Politics
By: Harry_Dent
This is what I predicted the day after Trump’s election.He has the impulse control of a grease fire. And he certainly can’t admit when he’s wrong, even though he changes his mind on one policy or view after the next.
There’s something disturbing about that. More disturbing than Richard Nixon’s paranoia that led to the Watergate scandal. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 01, 2017
Russia’s Disinformation Seems To Work—But It Doesn’t / Politics / Russia
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : From its founding, the Soviet Union ran campaigns designed to destabilize and neutralize potential enemies. Disinformation was and is the name of the game.
After the Russian Revolution, Lenin founded the Third International to support Communist parties around the world. Soviet intelligence ran disinformation campaigns. These campaigns were designed to undermine national governments, to discredit leading figures, and so on.
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Wednesday, May 31, 2017
China’s Belt and Road to Nowhere / Politics / China
By: Michael_Pento
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating recently to A1 from Aa3. The rational being that it expects the financial strength of the economy to erode, as GDP growth slows and debt levels continue to pile up. What is Beijing’s response to the slowing economy and intractable debt accumulation that was just underscored by Moody’s: issue a mountain of new debt in order to pave over 60 countries around the globe?
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