Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
How to Surpass the Middle-Income Trap / Politics / Social Issues
By: Dan_Steinbock
China will surpass the middle-income trap by continuing to implement structural reforms and focusing on economic development. The lesson to other emerging economies is to distinguish good growth policies from self-serving agendas in the advanced West. According to the World Bank, high-income economies ($12,236 or more) include the US, Western Europe and Japan, while upper middle-income economies ($3,956 -$12,235) feature Turkey, Russia, Brazil and China, among others.
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Wednesday, January 24, 2018
Tax Cuts Supercharge the Economy / Politics / Taxes
By: BATR
If you get your fake news from the corporatist filtered media, the sky is falling now that the Trump tax cuts are law. Pounded into the skulls of the dense hard heads of diminished grey matter is that the benefits of putting more cash into the pockets of everyday workers is peanuts. The collectivists who operate under communist economic doctrines fear that their normal class warfare rhetoric is hitting a wall of worry from their pro redistribution base. This factor requires telling an even bigger lie. Unleashing the animal spirits of confidence in growing the economy is now a reality, and the defenders of slicing a shrinking pie cannot bear the contrast of a vibrant and expanding economy.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Worse than Watergate - Release the Memo - Investigate Uranium One / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
The utter farce of the Mueller investigation into Trump collusion with Russia demonstrates the most obscene and overwhelming pattern of government deceit and deflection in decades. Enough has been written on this trolling probe to convince sincere and honest people that the protection racket thugs are running a confidence game against the populace and has abandoned any prospect of justice. Still, the fake news gatekeepers that select what is suitable for the apathetic public to hear see or read keeps the fairy tale narrative going to prevent looking into the true crimes committed by the cabal of establishment globalists.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Medicare Premiums Are A Shared Pool - Coming Changes That Will Transform Retirement / Politics / Government Spending
By: Dan_Amerman
A critical component of financial planning for retirement is that many healthcare expenses are a shared expense for those 65 and older, as a matter of current law and design. A 65 year old pays the same Medicare Part B premiums as a 95 year old, and someone in perfect health pays the same premiums as someone with multiple serious health issues.
By law, 25% of total Medicare Part B expenses are funded by Medicare premiums, which are usually withheld from monthly Social Security benefits. So, when the average expenses of Medicare increase on a per person basis - then so do the premiums.
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Friday, January 19, 2018
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Almost a year ago to the day, we wrote an article titled "The Geopolitics of 2017 in Four Maps." As it turned out, that article was one of our most popular in 2017.
We return this year with a similar concept in mind. Here are some of our best charts and maps from the past year, with an explanation of why each graphic is crucial for understanding the geopolitical forces to watch in the year ahead.
Let’s dive in.
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Friday, January 19, 2018
North Korean Quagmire: Part 2. Bombing, Nuclear Threats, and Resolution / Politics / North Korea
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. bombing crusade
After much experimentation and scientific study by Germany, Britain, and the United States, by 1943 it became clear that “a city was easier to burn down than to blow up.”
George Ball had been a member of the United States Strategic Bombing Survey team that was charged with studying the effects of bombing Germany and Japan. It found that the resolve of both the German and the Japanese population to resist the enemy had not been broken by intensive bombing. Despite this knowledge, what hardly any Americans know or remember is that we carpet-bombed North Korea for three years with next to no concern for civilian casualties.
Thursday, January 18, 2018
The North Korea Quagmire: Part 1, A Contest of Colonialism and Communism / Politics / North Korea
By: Raymond_Matison
About this article
The purpose of this article (and its companion article Part 2) is to assess three questions of great importance as it relates to the relationship between North Korea and the United States of America. The first is to make an inquiry as to why America and North Korea for decades on end holds each other as steadfast enemies. The second is to evaluate whether this mutual enmity may lead to physical war in the region or beyond. Finally, what is the likelihood that any future confrontation between these two countries may destabilize our global financial markets?
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Tuesday, January 16, 2018
The Swamp Lives On - Crooked Banks and Captured Regulators / Politics / Market Regulation
By: MoneyMetals
If officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are bothered by allegations of incompetence and capture by Wall Street’s bankers, it is hard to tell. The Commission recently hired Brett Redfearn to serve as Director of the Division of Trading and Markets. Redfearn left a 13-year stint at JP Morgan to assume a key role in regulating banks, investors and traders.
The SEC, and other regulators such as the CFTC and the Federal Reserve, aren’t worried about appearances. Redfearn looks like yet another fox being sent to guard the henhouse. His appointment undermines confidence even if he intends to serve with integrity.
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Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Artificial Intelligence - Extermination of Humanity / Politics / AI
By: BATR
The confusion about AI stems from the different perceptions of exactly what it means. A widely accepted definition indicates that Artificial Intelligence is the capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior. The far more exoteric interpretations of its meaning can be speculated ad infinitum. Despite this lack of consensus the implications from the effect of AI upon humanity is incontestable. Everyone is familiar with the understanding of components that make up the human species, but who among us can guarantee that the consistent nature of man will continue into the future?
Monday, January 15, 2018
What Really Happens in Iran? / Politics / Iran
By: Dan_Steinbock
US New Sanctions amid Iran's Transition and Pivot to the East
Iran’s recent volatility reflects US effort to undermine the nuclear accord as Iran is amid economic transition and increasingly looking toward the East.
At the end of December, a series of protests against economic policies erupted in Iran. As they spread, their scope expanded to include political opposition against the government. As President Trump tweeted his support for the protesters and criticism of the government, pro-government marchers filled the streets.
Sunday, January 14, 2018
Oprah for President, Really? / Politics / US Politics
By: Mike_Whitney
Being president isn’t like hosting a talk show or running a media brand. Oprah’s success in her field is no more indicative of her potential to be a good president than Trump’s success in real estate was. You can’t criticize Trump for having no relevant experience or evident understanding of public policy, then say that the solution for Democrats is just to throw up their hands and find their own celebrity to promote.— Paul Waldman, “Get a Grip, People. Oprah should not run for President”, Washington Post
Friday, January 12, 2018
How China is Locking Up Critical Resources in the US’s Own Backyard / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
In the 1800’s the United States under President James Monroe invoked the Monroe Doctrine, which stated that any effort by European nations to control any independent state in North or South America would be viewed as “an unfriendly disposition towards the United States.”
The intent of the Monroe Doctrine was to free the newly independent colonies of Latin America from mostly Spain and Portugal, so that the States could exert its influence undisturbed.
“The Monroe Doctrine, first articulated in 1823 as a means of blocking external interference in the Western Hemisphere, was the central pillar of US policy toward Latin America until Barack Obama’s secretary of State, John Kerry, told a roomful of Latin American diplomats in 2013 that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” The statement was part of an effort to rehabilitate the US image in a region long accustomed to seeing the United States as seeking to control it through persuasion when possible, and force when necessary. In a policy paper published last December, Craig Deare, a dean at the US National Defense University and now Mr. Trump’s top Latin America advisor on the National Security Council staff, denounced Kerry’s statement “as a clear invitation to those extra-regional actors looking for opportunities to increase their influence. He specifically mentioned China.” Is Trump resurrecting the Monroe Doctrine? Max Paul Friedman
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Thursday, January 11, 2018
SPECTRE Microprocessor Security Flaw - Big Brother = You / Politics / Intelligence Agencies
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Happy belated new year. Belatedly. Thought I’d sit out a few days, since there wasn’t much news to be expected. And it did pan out that way, other than Trump bogarting the limelight; but then, that isn’t really news either. Anything he says or does triggers the expansive anti-Donald echo chamber into a daily frenzy. And frankly, guys, it’s not just boring, but you’re also continuously providing him with free publicity. At least make him work for some of it.
Then, however, the big microprocessor (chip) security ‘flaw’ was exposed. And that’s sort of interesting, because it concerns the basic architecture of basically every microchip produced in the past 20 years, even well before smartphones. Now, the first thing you have to realize is that we’re not actually talking about a flaw here, but about a feature. We use that line a lot in a half-jokingly version, but in this case it’s very much true. As Bloomberg succinctly put it:
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Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Small Business Tax Reform / Politics / Taxes
By: BATR
One aspect of the Republican Tax Reform that everyone can agree upon is that it is not perfect. Fox business reports in What tax reform really means for small businesses.
"Instead of lowering the tax rate on all pass-through businesses, the final bill allows pass-throughs to deduct up to 20% of income. But who can deduct how much depends on what type of business you run and a corresponding formula".
Stop right there. It should be entirely clear that the political realities and influence of corporate lobbyists supersede that of ordinary businesses.
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Tuesday, January 09, 2018
Failure of War Party Foreign Policy / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
The continuous foreign policy failures of the entrenched establishment goes back well over a century. Notwithstanding, the missed opportunity with the collapse of the Soviet Communism has emboldened the war party of the American Empire to become the main existential threat not only to our own country, but to much of the rest of the world. The militarists who chant "Thank You for your Service" are actually committed to expand the Wounded Warrior dupes, who are expendable. The United States never learned the lessons of Viet Nam. Volunteering to fight in unnecessary foreign adventures has caused more gratuitous suffering than any improvised explosive device that blows off limbs.
Monday, January 08, 2018
Why Trump’s Tax Plan Might Be Counterproductive / Politics / Taxes
By: John_Mauldin
Whether you like Trump or not, the new administration is making some good things happen.
The combined impact of deregulation, tax cuts, and (possibly) infrastructure spending will push back against the Fed’s monetary tightening and keep the economy on roughly the same course as in 2017.
If the Republican tax bill isn’t what you wanted, join the club—I was a charter member as my Thoughts from the Frontline readers know.
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Monday, January 08, 2018
Blowup with China or North Korea Could Change Almost Everything Overnight / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gordon Chang, author, television pundit, and columnist at the Daily Beast. Gordon is a frequent guest on Fox News, CNBC, and CNN, among others, and is one of the foremost experts on Asian economics and geopolitics, having written books on the subject and it's great to have him back on with us.
Gordon, it's a real honor to have you on again, and thanks so much for your time today. I know it's been a busy week for you given all of your media appearances, and we're grateful that you could join us today. How are you?
Gordon Chang: I'm fine, thank you, and thank you so much, Mike. I really appreciate the opportunity.
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Monday, January 08, 2018
The Way to the New Cold War / Politics / New Cold War
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite continued nuclear threats, all US postwar presidents have failed to reset relations with Russia. Why?The “New Cold War” between the US and Russia began a decade ago. The elevated tensions in the Korean Peninsula are only a part of the collateral damage around the world.
But what led to the new friction? The simple response is the Wolfowitz Doctrine.
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Sunday, January 07, 2018
Student Debt Slavery II: Time to Level the Playing Field / Politics / Student Finances
By: Ellen_Brown
The lending business is heavily stacked against student borrowers. Bigger players can borrow for almost nothing, and if their investments don’t work out, they can put their corporate shells through bankruptcy and walk away. Not so with students. Their loan rates are high and if they cannot pay, their debts are not normally dischargeable in bankruptcy. Rather, the debts compound and can dog them for life, compromising not only their own futures but the economy itself.
Read full article... Read full article...“Students should not be asked to pay more on their debt than they can afford,” said Donald Trump on the presidential campaign trail in October 2016. “And the debt should not be an albatross around their necks for the rest of their lives.”
Thursday, January 04, 2018
War, Peace and Recession 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: EconMatters
December and January are usually two busy months for researchers as they release prediction/forecast of the New Year. We are going to briefly discuss two such forecasts here.
Top 5 World War III Crises
The first one is a geopolitical forecast, 5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018, published last month. Now let’s take a quick look at the top five crises that could lead to the greatest conflict in 2018: