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Economic Coin Flips and WikiLeaks Catching Up With Market Truths

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Aug 09, 2010 - 03:20 AM GMT

By: NewsLetter

Stock-Markets The Market Oracle Newsletter
August 1st, 2010 Issue #45 Vol. 4


The Market Oracle Newsletter
August 1st, 2010            Issue #45 Vol. 4

Commodities Currencies Economics Housing Market Interest Rates Education Personal Finance Stocks / Financials Real Gems

Economic Coin Flips and WikiLeaks Catching Up With Market Truths

Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Direct Download Link (PDF 3.2m/b)

Dear Reader

Many market analysts were left scratching their heads as the stock market ignored bad news the whole week from ECRI recession data to worse than expected U.S. GDP data by closing up on the week at 10,466 (10,425), with the Dow continuing its meandering trend towards a target of 10,700 which will more than likely be achieved this coming week. Last weeks newsletter (Stocks Bull Markets Generate Economic Growth) proved an opportune reminder to readers to remember asset prices drive economic growth which is contrary to the consensus view.

The graph below from the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD) continues to illustrate my overall trend expectations for the year. We still have to get through the seasonally toughest period of the year for the stock market so at this point I can't envisage a breakout to new bull market highs this side of October.

DOW Stock Market Forecast 2010

The bottom line - the stock market has so far not doing anything to negate the stealth stocks bull market scenario that continues to play out where many if not most investors remain too afraid to invest. Unfortunately the BlogosFear is full of so much bearish commentary right from the birth of the stocks bull market in March 2009 ( Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470 ), so it is highly likely that the bull market will remain in stealth mode all the way to new all time highs and probably beyond. My recommendation is always to do your own research into what the analyst you may be reading has said before at least during the past 12 months to gauge against what has actually transpired, and then you will know if someone is perma-clueless that espouse the virtues of some voodoo methodology when all they really have is something that has no more value than a coin toss, which applies to all technical tools and economic theories.

Gold - Bounced from a new early week low of $1155 to close at 1181, down by $8 on the week. Despite Fridays strong rally, Gold continues exhibit a trend that targets $1140, though now there is not much distance between $1155 and $1140.

Economic Coin Flips

Economic analysis is not a science or an art but the calling of a series of coin flips (as is stock market analysis), the actual determining item that flips into a final conclusion may be something inconsequential on its own, realising this will put analysts ahead of the curve. The Grand Media Star Wizards that propagate the press and academic institutions use formulae's and theories as smoke and mirrors to try and persuade you otherwise, but still at the end of the day come out with statements such as there is a 50/50 chance of a double dip recession, 50/50 chance of deflation, 50/50 of..... However without firm actionable conclusion such statements are pretty much worthless.

WikiLeaks Disintegrating Government Control of Information

First we had a U.S. Fed Board Member telling the masses to ignore bloggers on economic theory that was contrary to their own propaganda. Now we have had wikileaks releasing 91,000 pages of the actual facts on the War on Afghanistan. This is a continuing manifestation of the disintegration of the mechanisms of government to exert control over the thoughts of masses by means of security services and the mainstream press with much overlap between the two.

For decades if not centuries, the only real source of truth as to what is actually going on has been the markets, as the governments cannot hide the truth from the markets. If you want to know what is really going on with an economy, a war, then always look for the truth in market trends. Which is now being increasingly supplemented by the likes of the blogosphere and sites such as wikileaks.

Whilst wikileaks may not survive being targeted by U.S. security agencies, the internet being what the internet is, it will likely be replaced by a 100 similar sites.

Your analyst glad he does not have to sleep with one eye open.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21547.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

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Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week :

1. Four Shocking Economic Bombshells Bernanke Did NOT Tell Congress About Last Week

By: Martin_D_Weiss

In his testimony before Congress last week, Ben Bernanke lifted the Fed’s skirt and gave us a glimpse of the disasters now sweeping through the U.S. economy.

But there are four bombshells he did NOT talk about:

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Webster G. Tarpley writes: After about two and a half years during which the danger of war between the United States and Iran was at a relatively low level, this threat is now rapidly increasing. A pattern of political and diplomatic events, military deployments, and media chatter now indicates that Anglo-American ruling circles, acting through the troubled Obama administration, are currently gearing up for a campaign of bombing against Iran, combined with special forces incursions designed to stir up rebellions among the non-Persian nationalities of the Islamic Republic.

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8. Stocks Bull Markets Generate Economic Growth

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