Caroline Flint UK Housing Market Briefing Notes in FULL

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Caroline Flint the UK housing ministers full cabinet meeting first page briefing notes on the state of the UK housing market follows in full. In summary the housing minister expects UK house prices to fall this year by between 5% and 10% which is precisely in line with the Market Oracle forecast for a 7.5% drop for 2008 as of August 2007 (UK House prices to fall by 15% between August 2007 and August 2009).

Caroline Flint - Speaking Notes - Papers for Cabinet Meeting 13th May 2008.

State of the Housing Market

• Colleagues will know that ....... present.
• Leading house price indices ..... falls for the first time in recent years. Given present trends, they will clearly show sizeable falls in prices later this year - at best down 5 per cent -10 per cent year on year.
• House building is also stalling. New starts are already down 10% compared to a year ago. House builders are predicting further falls. Having seen net additions reach roughly 200,000 in each of the last two years, the figure for 2008-09 is almost certain to be well down on that.
• Repossessions are also rising, although we need to remember that the 2007 figure was still only around a third of that in 1991.
• Underlying demand for housing remains high and the fundamentals of the economy are sound. But the market is being affected by the global credit crunch which is making it difficult for many who would like to buy to do so.
• We can't know how bad it will get. But we need to plan now to put in place effective measures against the risk that it does get worse and to prepare for the up-turn.
• We are continuing to monitor the situation and take appropriate action.
• The chancellor and I met some of the largest mortgage lenders recently to continue discussions on what more the Government and the industry could be doing. I have subsequently met a number of the smaller lenders.
• We are playing our part to get the market moving with the Bank of England's £50 billion liquidity scheme. We have also put in place new measured to ensure the small minority of buyers facing repossession receive the support and advice they need. And I will tomorrow announce a package of measured to assist first time buyers.

But it is vital that we show that at this time of uncertainty we show that we are on the peoples side.

Analysis of the UK Housing Market:

By Nadeem Walayat

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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